How to detect a set?

drujuwonton

4th hand of a 10-man SNG...

I get J10c in the SB.
UTG raises to 3xBB, everyone folds, button calls, I decide to call because this is one of my favourite hands (whether I should have called or not is a different question), BB folds.

Flop comes Jd, 6h, 4c
I bet out 1/2 the pot, UTG raises to 3x my bet, button folds.
At this point I have absolutely no read on the guy, as it's only the 4th hand.
I decide to call.

Turn is 10s.
So now I have top 2 pair, there's no flush draw, and I'm not worried about any long-shot straight draw.
I decide to check in hopes to trap.
UTG bets out -- now I'm wondering what this guy actually has.
Without any read, the best I can put him on his an overpair, AJ, or even possibly KJ or QJ.
I decide to raise, he comes over the top all-in, so I call.

He flips over 44 for a set -- needless to say river was a brick.

Where did I go wrong?
Was my call of his raise on the flop wrong?
Was my call of his all-in wrong?
Was my read (as best as I could) on him wrong?
Or is this situation just one of those that you hate to see and hope it doesn't happen too often?

I'd appreciate any commentary (good/bad) as I'm still fairly new to this game and would like to hear what you all have to say.....thx!!!

SirWatts

I would fold preflop and fold to his raise on the flop. Once you make 2 pair you're gonna have to get broke though.

pkrfce9

Preflop I don't mind the call since it is cheap, you have huge implied odds. However, you are out of position so you have to be careful.

I'm surprised he raised on the flop. Why would he want to scare you off? I think I might have put him on AJ or overpair and been tempted to fold. It is pretty risky to bet into the raiser with only top pr and crappy kicker. Of course, he could be sitting on AK or AQ, too.

After you hit 2pr, you are gonna go broke. Pretty hard to lay down top 2.

I'm not sure how I might have played this differently. I'm not sure I would have put him on anything better than TPTK or an overpair. I'm quite happy to go to battle with 2pr in this case.

Hork42

Preflop, fine - i play this hand here too.

Flop - Bet a little more than 1/2 pot. Once you are raised, fold.

Turn - Bet the Turn. Don't get too sneaky here. Fold to the all in.

There's no reason to go broke 4 hands into a SNG. It's tough to hold back with a hand as good as two pair, but sometimes you have have to give your opponent credit for a "nice bet" whether they have the hand or not and try to win the chips back in a better spot.

Big E

Perhaps I am too tight, but I think this early in the game I fold this pre-flop. My math is horrible as well but I think you're getting about 2.4 or 2.6 to 1.....I'm honestly not sure what the 'books' say on this but for me with only two others in the pot I dump this hand pre-flop....but that said I agree with Hork the rest of the way post-flop.

pkrfce9

I think you gotta look at the implied odds. If this was Stars, you are calling about 5% of your stack for a chance to double up, if you hit your hand. JTs is a very good hand for this sort of gamble.

ScoobyD

If this was Stars, you are calling about 5% of your stack for a chance to double up, if you hit your hand.

Yes, but I think the problem in this post is defining "hitting your hand". While I go broke on the turn as well hitting 2 pair, I highly doubt I'd have called either the pf bet (maybe) but pretty dicey in the early stages OOP and heads up vs the pf raiser with no reads on the player. Specifically I hate the specific flop the player got TPNK. I'm folding here vs. the raise to an unknown (fearing an overpair). These are the kind of marginal hands that are a pain in the ass to play against an unknown (and out of position as well). IF the player can get off a hand like top pair without spewing chips then calling pf is fine, otherwise I'd say just fold it preflop.

Hork42

ScoobyD wrote:

IF the player can get off a hand like top pair without spewing chips then calling pf is fine, otherwise I'd say just fold it preflop.

Ding!   

Avoid putting yourself in a spot where you have to make a difficult decision.  You can get away with playing more hands if you are able to let a hand like this go.   If you are incapable of the laydown, then you're better off with only playing solid starting cards and playing in position.

You can win SNGs without playing a single hand for the first few levels.

pkrfce9

I have no issue with what Hork and Scooby are saying.

My only comment is JTs is far too pretty to lay down pre-flop for such a small amount of your stack. Especially if I knew I was 50/50 with pre-flop raiser. I would have assumed worse.

Yes you have to be able to get away from top pair after the flop. Excellent point. You also have to be able to let go of an overpair on the flop too. Lessons I have yet to take to heart...

ScoobyD

You also have to be able to let go of an overpair on the flop too. Lessons I have yet to take to heart...

You're not the only one. I can let TPNK go fairly easily. Overpairs are tougher for me (especially big overpairs). And TPTK with AK when I KNOW someone's caught 2 pair or a set is another I have problems with. I like the implied odds of JTs too, but I hate putting myself in tricky spots early in a SNG vs unknown players (especially when there's next to nothing in the pot to begin with). In general I'd prefer taking my implied odds shots in the early stages of SNGs with hands I know will be easier to play (ie small pairs for sets if it's cheap). I guess just a preference of style...

SirWatts

The call preflop is fine, I will occasionally make it if i think the raiser is a very poor player but i generally just fold. The flop is NOT a very good one for your hand. You want to flop a big draw/made hand. If you can't fold to his flop raise you should probably not be calling with this hand preflop. Once you make 2 pair you would be insane to fold I don't see how you guys can even consider folding to a push from an unknown player.

pkrfce9

SirWatts wrote:

Once you make 2 pair you would be insane to fold I don't see how you guys can even consider folding to a push from an unknown player.

I think that was only Hork. He's tighter than... (please provide your comedy bits here)

Hork42

pkrfce9 wrote:

I think that was only Hork. He's tighter than... (please provide your comedy bits here)

...your mother's.... (please insert your comedic bit here)

pkrfce9

Hork42 wrote:

...your mother's.... (please insert your comedic bit here)

control undergarments?

mrdeeds

Simple answer for me is, unless the player is of less than average skill, you will probably never be able to detect a set. The raise on the flop is a strong indicator of some type of strength though. Probably best to fold at that time.

Gonzo

We've seen a lot of talk about the JTs and what to look for on the flop. As most above I'm looking for open ended straight draws or a four flush minimum. If I hit three jacks or three tens I will play it as well. But the SB here is actually in a good position. You hit your Jack on the flop you can put out that feeler bet and be done with the hand if anyone comes over top. If you get smooth called instead you can put out another small feeler and then gauge from there. A smooth call then raise on the turn should make it really easy for you to throw this hand away on the turn.

HOWEVER, in the absence of an overpair or a better kicker I would NEVER put an under the gun raiser on 44. You have to be able to give your opponent a range of hands and there is no way I put him on 44 or 66 so your jack is good in all other situations.

the two pair on the turn was just the worst card you could have hit. Situations like that just cost money.

G

ReefAquarium

drujuwonton wrote:

4th hand of a 10-man SNG...

I get J10c in the SB.
UTG raises to 3xBB, everyone folds, button calls, I decide to call because this is one of my favourite hands (whether I should have called or not is a different question), BB folds.

Flop comes Jd, 6h, 4c
I bet out 1/2 the pot, UTG raises to 3x my bet, button folds.
At this point I have absolutely no read on the guy, as it's only the 4th hand.
I decide to call.

Turn is 10s.
So now I have top 2 pair, there's no flush draw, and I'm not worried about any long-shot straight draw.
I decide to check in hopes to trap.
UTG bets out -- now I'm wondering what this guy actually has.
Without any read, the best I can put him on his an overpair, AJ, or even possibly KJ or QJ.
I decide to raise, he comes over the top all-in, so I call.

He flips over 44 for a set -- needless to say river was a brick.

Where did I go wrong?
Was my call of his raise on the flop wrong?
Was my call of his all-in wrong?
Was my read (as best as I could) on him wrong?
Or is this situation just one of those that you hate to see and hope it doesn't happen too often?

I'd appreciate any commentary (good/bad) as I'm still fairly new to this game and would like to hear what you all have to say.....thx!!!

I'm in the same boat.

In situations like this I lose all my chips too.

So I lay down stuff like JTs to 3x BB preflop but I'm thinking about stuff like, "I'll drop here if...":

1. The player is good.
2. If I don't know how the player plays I assume he's good until proven otherwise.
3. I'm the better player at the table and can outplay these turkeys once I get a line on their play. Just give me the time to put them on a playstyle.
4. I have on need to risk my tournement and have time to play a conservative game.


. If I feel I can flop top pair and lay it down I alow myself to play stuff like JTs A3o ... but I go in thinking .... I can lay it down if I flop top pair and meet resistance.
The stack sizes have to be big to play stuff like JTs ... here I won't risk more than the usual 5% of my stack. and that 3x bb has to be less than 5% of the villans stack as well.


Suggestions?