drawing to the non-nuts
I was playing 10-20 the other day at Brantford and had 3 interesting hands that provided some similar dilemmas:
Hand 1: I have QT of hearts in MP. Two early limpers, I limp, one limper behind me then it is raised by the cutoff and reraised by the button. Blinds fold, everyone else calls except the cutoff who caps it. So, we have 25 small bets in the pot pre-flop. The flop comes J95 all diamonds. It's checked to the cutoff, who bets. The button calls, one of the early limpers calls and I call. The turn is the 8 of spades. It's now checked to the button who bets. Everyone calls. The river is some non-diamond (I forget). It's checked to the button who bets. Once again, everyone calls. The button turns over AT of diamonds for the flopped nuts. Incidently, the cutoff had pocket kings.
I think my pre-flop play is questionable, but a three bet by the button wasn't terribly unusual and I was getting pretty good pot odds. However, I do have a tendency to ignore the fact that it sometimes gets capped in these situations. On the flop I was getting 28-1. Even those odds aren't good enough when you're drawing dead though. But this would be a pretty brutal fold if no one had the flush wouldn't it? On the turn, I wasn't sure what to do. I considered betting out, but decided to proceed with caution. However, I was considering a check-raise. The fact that the button bet after calling the flop played a factor in my decision to call. I think I did well to only lose two big bets from the turn onward, but I'm not sure I really should have played it so cautiously.
Hand 2: I have QT off in the small blind. There are 3 limpers. I call and the big blind checks. Flop is JJ9 rainbow. It's checked to the button who bets and everyone calls. Turn is a 7. It's checked to the button who bets again. I decide to fold and everyone else calls. River is an 8. It's checked to the button who bets. It is raised by the big blind and called by the button. Big blind shows AT for the straight and button shows JT for the straight.
The turn was the only real dilemma here. There were two factors that made me fold. First, the button wasn't afraid to bet again after everyone called on the flop. This led me to believe he had a pretty strong hand, though it's tough to put him on a full house I guess. Second, I was worried one of the other callers was setting up for a check-raise. It's really too bad I folded here since I would have won a nice pot with two people making lower straights.
Hand 3: I have QJ off in the big blind. There is one limper when the button raises. Both the small blind and I call. The flop is K96 rainbow. It's checked to the button who bets. Everyone calls. Turn is a second 9 and it is checked around. The river is a ten. The small blind bets, I call and everyone else folds. Small blind shows trip 9's.
I included this hand because it illustrates the trouble with making the non-nuts on the river. It's easy to bet out in a situation like this, but what do you do when someone bets into you? In this particular case, I was pretty sure I had the best hand, but the combination of wanting the two players behind me to call and the off chance that the small blind had me beat, led me to just call. This type of situation on the river comes up occasionally, and I'm not really sure whether I should be calling or raising in general.
Hand 1: I have QT of hearts in MP. Two early limpers, I limp, one limper behind me then it is raised by the cutoff and reraised by the button. Blinds fold, everyone else calls except the cutoff who caps it. So, we have 25 small bets in the pot pre-flop. The flop comes J95 all diamonds. It's checked to the cutoff, who bets. The button calls, one of the early limpers calls and I call. The turn is the 8 of spades. It's now checked to the button who bets. Everyone calls. The river is some non-diamond (I forget). It's checked to the button who bets. Once again, everyone calls. The button turns over AT of diamonds for the flopped nuts. Incidently, the cutoff had pocket kings.
I think my pre-flop play is questionable, but a three bet by the button wasn't terribly unusual and I was getting pretty good pot odds. However, I do have a tendency to ignore the fact that it sometimes gets capped in these situations. On the flop I was getting 28-1. Even those odds aren't good enough when you're drawing dead though. But this would be a pretty brutal fold if no one had the flush wouldn't it? On the turn, I wasn't sure what to do. I considered betting out, but decided to proceed with caution. However, I was considering a check-raise. The fact that the button bet after calling the flop played a factor in my decision to call. I think I did well to only lose two big bets from the turn onward, but I'm not sure I really should have played it so cautiously.
Hand 2: I have QT off in the small blind. There are 3 limpers. I call and the big blind checks. Flop is JJ9 rainbow. It's checked to the button who bets and everyone calls. Turn is a 7. It's checked to the button who bets again. I decide to fold and everyone else calls. River is an 8. It's checked to the button who bets. It is raised by the big blind and called by the button. Big blind shows AT for the straight and button shows JT for the straight.
The turn was the only real dilemma here. There were two factors that made me fold. First, the button wasn't afraid to bet again after everyone called on the flop. This led me to believe he had a pretty strong hand, though it's tough to put him on a full house I guess. Second, I was worried one of the other callers was setting up for a check-raise. It's really too bad I folded here since I would have won a nice pot with two people making lower straights.
Hand 3: I have QJ off in the big blind. There is one limper when the button raises. Both the small blind and I call. The flop is K96 rainbow. It's checked to the button who bets. Everyone calls. Turn is a second 9 and it is checked around. The river is a ten. The small blind bets, I call and everyone else folds. Small blind shows trip 9's.
I included this hand because it illustrates the trouble with making the non-nuts on the river. It's easy to bet out in a situation like this, but what do you do when someone bets into you? In this particular case, I was pretty sure I had the best hand, but the combination of wanting the two players behind me to call and the off chance that the small blind had me beat, led me to just call. This type of situation on the river comes up occasionally, and I'm not really sure whether I should be calling or raising in general.
Comments
1. Read Small Stakes Holdem before returning.
2. Bet your draws!
Hand 1:
Bet your draw. There is no such thing as the pot is big enough. You are representing the flush. This gives cutoff or button a chance to reraise, representing a big hand. Anyone after, cold calling 2 bets, either is stupid, has the flush, or is drawing to the nut flush. If everyone calls you continue to bet your straight draw until you are raised, a 4th diamond falls or it doesn't come on the river.
Hand 2:
Either bet out your straight draw or check raise when button bets on the flop. Turn - I can't believe you folded. Better learn to count the bets in the pot. There are five big bets in the pot, 6 when the button bets and you are a 4.7:1 dog to get your straight. Plus he could be betting a small pair because no one bet out on the flop. If a Q or T hits you will beat anyone betting 2 smaller pair.
Hand 3:
Very weak call. I assume it is QJo you are playing. Button raised, you have no guarantee limper will call or raise. The pot is too small to justify a call here, your hand is easily dominated by the button raiser who will have position on you the entire hand. The river play is poor. Small blind made his trips, likely expecting button to bet again and was planning a check raise. He got nervous when it was checked around and bet into you. You have the nut straight. What bigger nuts do you want? There was no action on the turn. Likely limper wasn't calling anyways and likely button had already given up on his hand. Regardless there is still the possibility they may call your raise. If you raise there is also always the possibility sb will reraise replacing any bets you might have gotten from the limper/button.
It only becomes questionable when you are playing at a table where capped preflop is the standard.. Now, give me 5 players calling it capped and it's not a question. Tighten up the table to where only 3 call and I'd hate myself being involved.
Au contraire... 28-1 for an 11-1 shot is MORE than enough overlay to pay for the times you are behind to the flush.
Raising the flop is bad. Hero is looking at 6 clean outs for his OESD. The raise isn't for value and it will knock out hands that you want calling behind you. It was capped preflop, so I doubt you are getting everyone to fold regardless of the flop texture..
Bad fold. Even if you got check raised on the turn your draw is very live as the checkraiser likely has only trips and not something like J9 or J7.
Fold the flop. You aren't getting the odds to draw to your inside straight and if either Villian has a K yer dead. Small pot.
Preflop is fine. When you are in the BB and the pot is raised, ask yourself "Would I play this hand on the button for 1 bet?" If the answer is yes, then call the raise. If it's no, fold.
Don't be so concerned about the nuts. You see them all the time at .50/1 online because every stays in on every street. When you move over to situations where there are 3-4 players to the flop, the nuts become significantly rarer.
I said bet the flop not raise. The bet isn't for value - it's to find out where we are in the hand. It was checked to him in MP by two limpers. Everyone will call a single bet on a pot that big (which they did). Betting into the raiser gives them an opportunity to raise if they hit the flop. In this scenario, either our cutoff folds his KK or raises. If he folds, we have removed a player who beats us if a Q hits the board. If he raises, it leaves 3 people between us and the raiser to cold call 2 bets. When this happens we can be sure that they either have a flush or are drawing to the nuts. If no one raises, we are being slow played or no-one has the flush (yet). Either way it cost us one bet yet by betting out we gain more info.
I think we have a new category of player - the squirrel - more concerned with other people's nuts than their own.
Loose table (6 or more in the hand), I would call QJo for one bet from BB. Tight table - and here we have only 4 people in the hand, with no guarantee the limper will call, and the possibility he might also raise, I would fold. QJ suited I would call for 1 bet from BB, looking for the flush. I would be very cautious if I flopped top pair, without a flush draw to back it up. As BBC Z says, with the overcard on the board, time to muck.
PREFLOP: Standard. Your hand plays very well postflop and you would normally coldcall anyways with the action likely being 5 handed.
FLOP: Pots huge, peeling one isnt bad, but it isnt great. We have to realize that we only have 6 semi clean outs, which are probably only good about half because regardless of whether we make our hand sometimes we are either already beat or will be redrawn. Id say on average were dealing with a 2.5outer.
TURN: So, why arent we betting our hand here when we make it? Having this street checked through would be a disaster and we cant count on the PFR betting it for us unless he has an overpair. The fact that he might have an overpair is even more reason to lead into him, because he may try to protect his hand (and ours along with it) with a raise.
RIVER: Value bet this river. There are SO many worse hands that are calling.
Come again? Why is a guy calling a flop bet getting 25 to 1 scaring you? Every man, woman, child and dog has odds to call this flop. Dont let the results affect your analysis of the hand. He could very well have been there with a flush deuce, bottom pair or overcards just as likely as the stone cold nut diamonds.
HAND 2
PREFLOP: Standard complete
FLOP: In these small pots, Ill often lead my OESD on rainbow boards. After checking, I like checkraising the button who likely doesnt have much giving me an oppurtunity to sniff out a 9 or J(gee...what could IAMFISHY419 be coldcalling with on this board?) while adding fold equity to my hand.
TURN: The way you played the flop, check-calling is really the only way to go. Folding is baaaaaad.
RIVER: Well, if you got this far...BET.
HAND 3
PREFLOP: If the button has decent raising standards, I dump preflop. Likelihood of being dominated along with poor position can be poisonous to your bankroll. If the button is frisky and raises loosely, Ill call sometimes...but proceed carefully.
FLOP: Getting 10:1 on a bet...go ahead and peel one. Your implied odds are good here.
TURN: Fold! Pots only laying you 7:1 with one less street to make money on.
RIVER: I think I like a smoothcall here. Were likely only getting a portion of a big bet from the SB on average when we raise (sometimes hell fold to the raise...sometimes hell 3bet with a better hand...) while smoothcalling is likely to gain us a full bet a majority of the time, sometimes two if both players come along.
Right. I misread the action in Hand #1.. BUT your lead out bet isn't for information, it's for value.
If thats true, then you'd need to fold. You need 20 to 1 odds preflop to call solely on a flush draw.
I can tell you where you are in the hand without betting it. Your behind. Betting for information is silly here.
All your going to find out is, who likes their hand enough to raise or 3bet. And often times, someone is just going to slowplay their hand to the turn. If we check and someone raises the PFR, then we can dump our hand because we really dont have that great a draw and the pot isnt laying us THAT much when it comes back to us two bets. By betting the flop we are giving up probably the only great advantage we have in this hand... our powerful relative position!
We arent gaining any USEFUL information by betting. We are almost ALWAYS going to check-fold when we miss the turn or bet when we hit the turn. All were doing is making it more likely for us to pay two bets for our meager draw.
Hand 1
It's not a guy calling the flop that scares me. It's a guy calling and then betting on the turn when it is checked to him. Wouldn't he have raised the flop with something worth betting on the turn, especially when he is certainly going to be called? Unless, of course, he was slow-playing something. I realize that sometimes people do strange things, so you never know, but this felt like a strong bet. Also, I didn't mention this, but when he bet he said something along the lines of "well, if it's checked to me I have to bet". In all honesty, I'm never quite positive what to make of talk like this, but I certainly felt there was reason to believe this guy was strong. Having said all this, I think you're right that I should have bet out on the turn, but once I checked I think I had reason to just call.
Hand 2
The consensus here is that I made a bad fold and I think you guys are right, but let me just make a case that folding was only a marginally poor play, and not a terrible one. First, after the play on the flop, and the button's subsequent bet on the turn, I believe I can rule out the possibility that hitting a Q or a T will win me the pot. At this point I have to believe that either the button has a jack, as he doesn't appear to fear any of the callers on a flop that seems fit for a slowplay, or that one of the callers is indeed slowplaying a jack. Therefore, I'm only left with 8 possible outs. Now, on the turn I'm getting 6-1, and with eight outs, as moose said, I am only 4.7-1 to hit my straight. But, there's more to think about here. Now, I'm not saying I should assume that someone has a full house or that I should even think it's more than a remote possibility, but doesn't it have to factor in at least slightly? I mean, people do get full houses occasionally. Sure, it's rare, but it happens. With this crowd, J9, 99, 77 are all possibilities, not to mention hands like 88 or JK which would take away some of my outs. Again, I'm not saying it's likely that someone has one of these hands, but it's possible, so it seems to me, I should factor this in somehow. The other point is that on the turn, I suspected that one of the callers might be slowplaying a jack and looking for a check-raise. This certainly, would not be uncommon on 10-20 at Brantford. Suppose, just as an example, that I knew that the big blind was going to check-raise and that the two other callers were going to fold. Now I would only be getting 4.5-1 in a situation where I am not necessarily going to win even if I hit my hand. I know this is a worst-case scenario and I know you can't play poker assuming the worst all the time, but I do think I have to at least consider the worst-case as a possibility. Like I said, upon further examination, it seems calling was the right play, but I don't think folding is brutal in this situation.
Hand 3
I really don't see any problem with my preflop call. We are talking about a button raise with only one limper. This doesn't exactly indicate extreme strength to me. I could be dominated, but I believe that there is a good chance that I am not. And I am getting 7-1 on this call (I know there is always the possibility that the limper might fold, or that he might raise, but both the limp-fold and the limp-raise are extremely rare at Brantford), which seems like enough to me. On the flop, I am getting 10-1 and it is 11-1 against me hitting my straight. I realize that I am not getting the pot odds, but with implied odds I think this call is worthwhile. If I miss on the turn I fold.
Folding a winning hand when you are getting pot odds to call IS the most terrible play in poker. Even if you think that the chances of the straight winning the pot is 50/50, you are getting 6:1 on your money, plus any limpers on the turn plus the implied odds of bets taken on the river. Were you more than 50% sure that he was betting a FH? 25%? 10%? Make these value decisions and then decide if it is worth it. Vaguely worrying about not having the nuts does not quantify a raise, call or fold decision.
Hand 3
QJo is weak crap that shouldn't be played after a raise unless we have a very good read on our opponents, plus a large pot, plus good position, plus if we have excellent post-flop skills. In the BB you will be out of position the entire hand. In a 4-way pot you can easily get trapped between 2 raisers. The raiser is telling you that he has a good hand. Whether you can beat him or not and whether it is your blind or not is of no consequence in a small pot. For the number of times you will win the hand it is just not worth it.
If you have Pokertracker, sort out the QJo, see how many times you have played it after a raise, see if you are winning these hands. I can virtually guarantee you that you are not. Also take a look at what the winning hand was, see how many times it was to a bigger pair or top pair, bigger kicker.
Then take a look at all your offsuit hands, sort them by position and see if you are calling bets from weak position, trapped by raise behind you and calling again.
These two situations a major leaks that most people can improve on.
You have to be kidding. First of all, in the OP, there is one limper and the button raises. If you seriously fold your BB here for one bet with a hand as strong as QJo, you have a SERIOUS leak in your game and need to fix it asap. Given a likely loose button raise, You'd probably want to 3-bet it here and knock out the first limper.
Loosen up, especially in the blinds.
Well played and good reasoning. It was hard in the OP to tell what the pot size was when it was your decision but I agree.
I think you should change your quote to "Beware, I'm too tight" because I see a running theme in all your posts.
I am confused by your math or simply confused by what you are saying. Are you saying that if the chances of the straight winning the pot is 50/50 I should call? I don't think that makes sense. It's 4.7-1 against me hitting my straight. If I were to say that hitting one of my eight outs would win me the pot 50% of the time, wouldn't this be equivalent to saying that on average I would have four outs to win the pot? That would mean I would be looking at 11-1 odds of winning the hand, not nearly enough to justify a call. If I figured this right that means I'd need somewhere between 6 to 7 outs to justify a call, which would mean I'd need to be somewhere between 75% and 87.5% sure that a straight would win to make the call. Now, I probably could have felt that confident in this situation that a straight would win, but it's close and that's my point. Yes, folding is wrong when you have the odds to call, but all folds are not created equal. When everything is factored in, it looks to me like this is a marginal, but profitable call. Therefore, I think it fair to say that this is only a marginally bad fold, a bad fold nonetheless, but not a terrible one.
I for one was in the same boat (sorry no pun intended), and in general I agree with your thoughts Peteski. I don't know if the original poster assumed you had a made hand or not. The fact is you're still on a draw, and a draw where you aren't 100% sure that if you hit it you're good. As you said, if you only thought half the time when you actually hit your hand that you're good, it would be a clear fold.
As far as the play in the hand on the turn: I probably call. But another consideration for folding which hasn't been mentioned yet is your absolutely terrible relative position to the bettor. There is some possibility that someone could have slow-played trips or a boat in EP (depends on the players of course) and is waiting for the turn to check-raise. I think I probably still make the call, but the possibility of a check-raise (and a potential 3 bet from the orginal bettor if two sets of trips are out) here makes the decision closer I think.
As you said, it's a bad fold, but not a terrible one.
Perfect for you. Egotistical with delusions of grandeur. I'm sorry if you don't like cats or something but you must really be desperate for attention to start picking on people's avatars. My cat never did anything to you and to take something that is meant to be cute and fun and use it against people is far beyond what I believe is acceptable on this forum. I'm glad QJo is not a leak for you. NH.
I have avatars turned off.