Value Bet or Induce A Bluff

PokerKai

Ive thought about this one for a little bit now, and Im not sure whether I have a value bet or if I should induce a bluff on the river.

Villains numbers are 21/12/2
Our villain plays slight overagressive preflop, but not loose, and plays very well postflop. Numbers are over ~400 hands.

30/60 Party

PREFLOP: folded to Hero in MP2, Hero open raises with As Ks, CO coldcalls, Villain 3bets on the button, folded to Hero who caps, CO coldcalls, Villain calls.

FLOP: 2s 2d 2h

Hero bets, CO folds, Villain calls.

TURN: 6h

Hero checks, Villain checks.

RIVER: 4s

Hero...?

SirWatts

I think the way you played the hand it's pretty obvious you hold AK. I don't see you getting called by AQ or worse (or pushing him off AK), but you might induce a bluff from a hand like that trying to push you off your bigger ace. My guess is it goes check, check and he shows you either AQ or another AK. I suppose he could also have something like TT and be really afraid of a turn CR for some reason but that doesn't sounds like good postflop play to me.

moose

Heads up bet the turn, check the river. If WTSD% is low and he calls the turn, you are beat on the river. Fold to a river bet, especially if PFAF is low. If WTSD% is high and PFAF is low he will likely check the river - again a bet will likely mean you are beat. If PFAF is high you will have to use judgement on whether he would call 3 rounds of betting and then bluff the river.