Hand analysis....

8th hand of start of tourney. Blinds are $25 &$25. Starting stack is $5000, no read on anyone. One player two to your right looks to feed the table as he has played every hand so far, including calling every raise.

You are on the button Qs-Js. Folded around to" Mr.must see all flops" who calls $25, next player folds, I want to isolate him, I raise to $100. Much to my chagrin the BB calls.

Flop j-j-10 rainbow, checked to me , bet $200 into a $325 pot. BB calls , 2nd player folds. Hmmm. Turn 8, I bet 600 and am check raised to $2000.

Now question becomes what does he have, and can I get away from this hand or is it an automatic.

River is a 9

Comments

  • Doesn't look like the 8 helped the BB. I can't see him calling with Q9 or 79 to make the straight, but J-10, K-J A-J are reasonable calling hands. Analyzing this right now, I think there's a small chance I'm tied against QJ, but a large chance I'm drawing to 3 outs so I fold. Actually playing the hand I probably can't throw away the trips with the good kicker and I call or make a reraise.
  • I would like to think that with the deep stacks I could get away from a hand like this this early with no reads.  However, maybe I'm being too optimistic, and like a donkey I'd push in on the turn.  The turn check-raise is particularly disturbing (and the flat flop call). He seems to think he is best, and worse, he doesn't mind running the risk of giving a free card on a dangerous looking board on the turn.  What hands can you beat here? AT, QQ, KK, AA.  All of these seem unlikely to have check-raised on such a dangerous board.  You're beat on the turn by AJ, KJ, JT, Q9, TT, 88.  Q9 makes some sense, but seems like a pretty weak hand to be calling in the BB with (unless maybe it's suited). JTs I could see as well.  I think the hand I fear as most likely would be TT here though.  Without a read this is a tricky spot, but with the deep stacks I'd like to think you can find a better spot.  Of course this could be some donkey slow playing AA or KK I guess, the early stages of tournies are so tough to gauge the caliber of your opponents...
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