(NL $500 WCOOP) proper MTT play?
$500 buyin WCOOP
3000 entrants
75 players left
Blinds are at 2K/4K
My stack and opponents stack = 110K.
I raise in mid-late position to 12K with :jh :qh, I get one caller in cutoff, and blinds fold. Pot is at 30K. Flop comes :10h :10c :9s. I lead out for 20K on the flop. Initial caller thinks and re-raised all in. Pot is at ~150K and it is back on me and I have ~78K left. I have no reads on this player. What would your play be and why? We are already well into the money, but my goal is to make the final table. Is this an insta-call or should I just muck and put my money in where I know I can be a bigger favorite as there is still plenty of play left and I am above average in chip count. What is your play if you know that your opponent holds QQ or AA, does this change your decision at all?
I thought this was a routine situation but the more I think about it I am not sure what decision I like best.
Thanks for all feedback,
Sol.
3000 entrants
75 players left
Blinds are at 2K/4K
My stack and opponents stack = 110K.
I raise in mid-late position to 12K with :jh :qh, I get one caller in cutoff, and blinds fold. Pot is at 30K. Flop comes :10h :10c :9s. I lead out for 20K on the flop. Initial caller thinks and re-raised all in. Pot is at ~150K and it is back on me and I have ~78K left. I have no reads on this player. What would your play be and why? We are already well into the money, but my goal is to make the final table. Is this an insta-call or should I just muck and put my money in where I know I can be a bigger favorite as there is still plenty of play left and I am above average in chip count. What is your play if you know that your opponent holds QQ or AA, does this change your decision at all?
I thought this was a routine situation but the more I think about it I am not sure what decision I like best.
Thanks for all feedback,
Sol.
Comments
Mike
I would have folded here.
I did make this call once in a B&M tourney and kicked myself in ass all the way out to the car. I did not get knocked out of the tournament on this had but it crippled me.
All about stack management!
After he goes AI - I would be folding.
Wait for a better spot.
You seem very concerned about rebuilding if you fold. Though 20 BB is not optimal it is far from being in bad shape. Is there another consideration that you are taking into account that I'm missing?
I do agree without a read it makes things hard to figure out your odds but it should make it easier to get away from your hand here. Now if I'm sitting with a shorter stack, say 10BB or less, I would be more inclined to call with the same situation.
Overall though you generally don't want to be calling off the balance of your stack with a draw, especially a draw that could be very thin.
What makes you so sure he's drawing so thin? On a flop like that the other player could easily assume he missed (figuring him on AK, AQ) . If he's getting raised by a PP lower than 9's I'm pretty sure he's a favorite to win. (except possibly 88 maybe). Against 77-22 he has 17 outs, and could easily pick up more outs if an overcard or a heart falls. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it's a clear call, but I don't really think it's a clear fold either, depends heavily on the read of the player. I also like SirWatts comment about the table texture. Ie. if there's a couple of solid players with monster stacks on your immediate left it's going to be extremely tough to pick up blinds, and you might be forced to get all your chips in with a hand you're not thrilled with anyways, making the stand sooner rather than later can give you a much better shot at going deeper (of course at the expense of busting early).
What is your stack to the avg?
Given that you would raised 12k (3xBB) with JQs in MP, what would you be called with? What is your image? How many hands have you been playing?
That being said what would he call with? Have you been pushed off a couple of pots or have you been out of line and aggressive?
If your into alot of pots A-T, A-9 seem VERY likely, as would pair lower then TT, or even the same hand as you. AA- TT you would get reraised preflop.
And from that we would guestimate that he doesnt have a 99, it would be silly for him to bet when you have already taken the lead.
The hands would go up from there, based on his image of you and what we would flat call and not reraise with.
- So what does he see you bet as? If you had a ten, would you check? How tricky/aggressive have you been?
How hard would he have hit this flop to try and push you off this pot?
The pot is giving you roughly under 2-1 and your draw is slighty over 2-1 as your going to see both cards, that is If you think he has the T. If he would make this play with any pair lower then tens it is pretty much an auto call as the QJ have given you six more outs and you have are even money on a two to one pot. If you think he would flat call with KK, then your a huge dog, or silly play of 99 or T9. Any other hand and your odds hold up.
- then it comes down to what box you have him in, what would he make this play with liklely? is he betting for value or to get you off your draw?
- where does your stack sit if you fold? (if there is an ante then your under 10x more rounds you will have to get VERY aggressive) What are your chances of pushing your stack up.
- where are you in the $, how many spots will you go up if your crippled and become passive?
- if you call and win where does that put you in the whole tourny.
I think the call is a toss up based on the odds, it is everything else that makes you lean one way or another
This is more or less how I feel about it. A lot of people are saying fold and wait for a better spot. I think the decision basically comes down to what you think your chances of finding a better spot are. With the long levels and a Harrington M of around 8 or 9 depending how big the ante is you can fold and not be in too desperate a situation, though you'd definitely be under some pressure to make a move. On the other hand if you call and win the hand you'll be in an excellent position to make a run at the final table. So how tough us your table seems to be the key point to me. At a weak table you can probably find better spots, at a tough table you won't find many. Given which event this is it's reasonable to assume the remaining players at your table are probably fairly strong (there are probably still a few weak ones in maybe you're lucky enough to have one at your table). If not the question is is the pressure/money causing any of them to play off their game? Has anyone become weak tight or has someone gone way overbaord with the aggression trying to take advantage of otherplayers? If not I'm probably going to gamble, if there are such players I would lean towards folding, especially if there are weak/tighties on your left.
Here are my thoughts in regards to calling or laying the hand down.
My M level is still at 13. I have 78K left the blinds are 2/4. It costs me 6K per round to play. 78/6=13. I am not in panic or feel the pressure to do something. I am risking my tournament on a draw. The cutoff player at worst has the same hand you have. I would think he has made hand already. Even if it is an underpair!
The next round is ( I think) 3/6. This is the round I must think of stealling some blinds. My M is 8+.
Time is still on your side. I am sorry guys this is an automatic laydown.
1. Our reads and the villain's reads. Since we have none calling with draw is basically just gambling. Without a read we have no absolutely no way of knowing where we stand. Also, as Redington pointed out does our villain have a read on us? Do our villain think that we can or can't fold here?
2. Chip stack vs. the current blinds and antes. If we call we will be in great shape but still not guaranteed to make the final table. The average stack at the final table will be ~$800,000, though $220,000 will be great is still far from a lock to the final table. On the other side folding will leave us with ~$78,000 which is still a comfortable number of chips to keep battling.
3. Us vs. our opponents. Without any reads on our villain I'm not sure if we have any reads of the rest of our table or for that matter the rest of the players in the tourney. If we think that we at the bottom of the pack in regards to skill I think we should call and hope for the best since we will be unlikely to have a better shot later. If we think we average skill compared to the remaining players then I think we need to go back to our read on the villain. Since we have no read I think it makes it tough to call. If we think we are above avg. than unless we are sure to be against an under pair or worse (without a read this is impossible) than I think we fold since we know we will find better opportunities to put our chips in the middle.
Overall, without a read on the villain and with the information provided in the OP I think that this, though tough, is a folding situation. It really boils down to not having a read whatsoever. I have seen similar situations go many different ways and I just don't think that we have enough information to call off our chips on draw here.
Oh, and after rereading the OP many times I noticed that I didn't answer the question about AA-QQ. If you know your up against this range of hands than this is an easy fold since you are far behind. You can actual open this range to AA-88 and folding is probably correct (see point three above).
Raising pre-flop, I think, is too aggressive. Limping in with the QJs would be better if you felt that your table was friendly to pre-flop limping; and I think that folding is better otherwise. The exact hand QJ is NOT a fun hand to raise with and get called in a NL tournament when the stacks are medium-deep. I'd honestly prefer to initiate a steal with some kind of an undominated "Hansen hand".
As the hand actually went to the flop (raised and called pre-flop), I favor checking the flop against an unknown player. Here, I need to know something about how my opponent plays flops before making any kind of move. You could, of course, simply bet out against a very straightforward player. Against a highly aggressive player, I would check and fold, since the "Why did a hyper aggressive player flat call me pre-flop?" alarm bells are going off in my head. Check-raising all-in is a strong option against certain kinds of players1 too.
As the hand actually went during the flop betting, I would fold against an unknown player. I would have to know something pretty specific and very reliable about a player to make a call here. Putting your opponent on an underpair here is both wishful thinking, and showing your opponent a lot of disrespect in terms of skill. This is a bad flop for a pocket pair below nines.
Even if 22-88 is in the range of hands your opponent might have here, the key here is that, at the same time, you're going to have to rule out a lot of hands that beat you to give your call enough +EV to justify the variance of this play. That's one heck of a hand range read parlay.
A fold here is absolutely clear. You have a near zero EV play with extremely high variance.
ScottyZ
1Ones I would call "bluff-tight" or something like that. These are the kinds of players who like to take a lot of small stabs at pots, but often get out quickly if played back at. This sort of player would probably auto-bet if you checked the flop with any two cards.
6k blinds, 12k bet and 12K called. I realize this may be incorrect being on PS, but according to this the M is still 13.
I am not saying this is an easy lay down, but its not as hard to do as you think. Your whole tournament on a draw? = NOT ME.
Sirwatts you make many valid points but all require more information than what is given in the OP. I do find it awkward/weird that we have absolutely no read on the villain but it isn't completely impossible. Maybe if the original poster could give us some info on their table image that would us in trying to calculate the pot odds but again we just don't have enough info to put our villain on a hand outside 72o -AA.
you raised preflop 3x BB, he called not reriasing making it cheap for the BB to come in (the BB is getting 3-1 on a call)
What would he have called you with on the button?
Pair lower then 99, suited connectors, or two big cards kq, qj or Ax probably suited (assuming at this level most good players would not want to take a higher pair TT-KK into a flop against 3 players witihout knowing the value of your hand so a reraise would be in order and AK would reraise trying to take it down here )
So the flop comes TT9 and you bet just shy of the pot;
On the other side of the table what does this look like?
If you had a T or Pair of 9's wouldn't you check raise? Or make a standard continuation bet of 1/2 the pot for value? If you had it why scare you out of the pot now? Anything above 1/2 pot is either VERY fancy or Very scared. You have alot of chips...you can afford to be fancy... so if your not being fancy your scared. Your on a draw or have made hand I can make you lay down.
You bet, he reraised all in;
Lets look at where you are -Â
Pot odds are 2-1
You are a 2-1 dog to every plausable hand he could hold based on the betting. The worse your up against is JTs, ATs, at this level of player the percentage of him holding AA-TT is so small with no preflop raise I would almost discount it completely in terms of how we play out this hand, if your worried about AA-JJ just flat calling a 3xBB raise then your going to be laying down ALOT of hands.
More likely your up against a smaller pair, or the same draw as you or 7-8s.
The only way for him to go all in and make sense is that he is holding a T but see's his hand is vulnerable to a straight draw which makes sense from the way you bet, even here pushing in all his chips isnt a high value play considering he has given you the right odds to call - this is a mistake on his part but it could be played like this
- this means your a 2-1 dog but the pot odds are right -
Or the other scenario is that he thinks you dont have a T or 99. A high percentage play is to go all in with lower pair, AK, or other hand we put him on when someone makes a bet at a flop with a pair in it, this is a psychology play which works the odds dont matter to him. Against that move you now have 15 outs making him a 1.5 - 1 dog -
I'm really thinking the second one is more likely then the first which tilts the odds in your favor!
To fold, I would have to be sure I can be aggressive and get my stack back up, the money doesn't change greatly in the next 10 spots, I have the right image to gain stack strength. And my opponent wouldn't be thinking I would call his all in bet if he had 99, or was a weaker player who plays very straight forward conservative poker.
I wonder Scotty, what hands would you put a good player on? Does it make sense that AA-TT or AK doesn't reraise preflop? Hands you don't want to take against three players? Assume the blind calls given his 3-1 call here.
Against aa-qq -jj (not KK) the pot odds are right to make a call, 2-1 dog, 2-1 pot. So the hands we are a complete dog to are KK TT and 99.
If you were the 'villian here with a T' what is your play? How about a 9 or a str draw?
It depends on what you mean by "good player". Dan Harrington and Gus Hansen will play a different range of hands in different ways.
A good player may very well flat call with a hands like AA, KK or AK pre-flop (for different reasons).
A good player may be moving all-in on the flop on a complete whiff, since chances are pretty good that the opponent does not have a 9 or T. Some good players will also move all-in here with trip Tens because it is the last thing a typical opponent would expect them to do with that big a hand.
Good players come in all kinds of varieties, and:
Against an unknown player, I am leaning towards folding here. Why? Because the range of hands my opponent could have is wide, and doesn't include many hands where I have significant +EV (that is, hands where I am substantially better than a 2 to 1 dog), and does include a lot of hands where I'm a 2-1 dog or worse, and getting the worst of it in EV.
Calling the all-in bet feels a lot like a play which is close to zero in EV. In a tournament situation where my stack size is not short, I would fold such hands.
ScottyZ
Personaly I guess he called and lost, but thats MO only.
I really don't think many players cold call with AK here, though it's certainly a reasonable way to play it. Some people will cold call with AA or KK though, likely not QQ but maybe JJ.
The latter point is quite reasonable and scares me .
A9, 88-55 you are substantially better than than 2-1, this is a decent % of his range (from a bayesian standpoint) unless you're willing to give him a lot of kickers with his T.
When you factor in antes your M is not that high, but you're not that shortstacked either. It would be a good play for a player of average to below average skill level who wants to go deep in the tournament to make such a call though. Again depending on what you think your skill overlay is vs your table as I rambled on about before.
If our hero has been tight aggressive then I would be thinking an overpair and only be pushing with trips or better.
If our hero has been loose aggressive a push here with almost any two in many situations isn't unreasonable. I (as the villain) still would want some kind of hand but really your betting that your opponent has nothing here.
If our hero has been passive showing no ability to fold I will push ever time I have made hand better than a pair of 10's.
Overall the hero has shown a lot of aggression in this hand and depending on the villain's read it could mean a great deal of things to them. Now with the information provided we know our hero has JQ, which as Scotty said is a dangerous raising hand. With that in mind I am going to guess our hero has large range of hands that they are willing to raise with. The semi-bluff on the flop shows our villain is willing to fire at pots without made hands. Therefore I am going to guess (almost assume) that our hero is loose aggressive and has been making plays at a fair number pots. What we don't know is if our hero has shown down many big hands or a willingness to lay down hands to pressure. Let's say that our hero has been having their way and not had to show down many hands and that they have been loose aggressive taking more shots than most at the table. This is a great time for the villain to make a few different plays:
1. Call preflop with intention of taking pot away on the later streets on a total bluff or miracle hit after our hero makes a play at the pot post flop.
2. Call preflop with an implied odds type hand looking to put a hurt on our hero when we hit our hand.
3. Call preflop with a premium hand looking to trap our opponent for a lot chips.
All the above options seem very viable considering we have no read on our villain and a little information that leads me to believe our hero as being at least some what loose aggressive.
So back to whether our hero should call or fold...
In all the three situations above we could be in for nasty surprise after we call. Even if our villain was setting up play number 1 they could have hit the flop with a weak 9 or 10 and be hoping to end things now. Now with all the above said I'm still saying you fold here but to will need to tighten up and start rebuilding our stack.
sol.
at 7600 a round your down to ten rounds, and this DOES make you desperate a couple of rounds waiting for good cards and your not even going to play post flop
if yuou had him on JJ QQ, lets give him 50/50 of those two hands
against JJ your in great shape - you have 3 Q's 4 K's and 4 8's which give you 15 outs putting you at 1-1 for your money
against QQ your down to 8 outs or 2.21-1
if you put those two scenarios together your 3-2 or 1.5-11 and the pot is giving you 2-1
Pot odds wise your close to correct in calling
Now I don't make that call only if
1- I go up signifigantly in money by hanging around another 10 players
2- I am the strongest player, and will have plenty of opportunity to rebuikld with a crippled stack if I fold
3- I am against a tricky player, who very likely would flat call KK, even with aces you have the same outs as QQ, or a T although he would be drawing to a full and you would be in worse shape.
If anything, I would have made a smaller bet on the flop, looking more like a value bet giving you a chance to reraise a raise and take this pot back
I think the most likely holding of him is the EXACT same as you, or the 7-8
This has been an amazing discussion problem.
I still think that to put him on aces or kings just makes no sense.
Considering what everyone says about folding, I had to go back and look to see what I was missing.
-- What are you expecting with your hand? How good does the flop have to be to for you to back up your bet?
QQJ? 9TK? if you hit just the queen or the jack, then would you see him raising your bet with AQ, or AJ the hands the hands that are going to be ahead? On the flop, you cant really get a much better flop then this, but you can get alot of flops that has you in bad shape against ANY two cards you put this person calling your 3xBB
-- Why bet the flop? ANY hand that has you beat would reraise. The standard play when someone bets a flop with two pair cards is to reraise the person off their draw or low pair, so any two cards should reraise. You have to call your str draws in these situations, thats what you wanted to set up with this play.
-- the other player
a) doesn't have the right number of chips to scare you off the pot, by going all in he gave you the just above the correct odds to make this call
(if it was 150K vs a 78K call which is just 4% under what you need to go strictly on odds)
b) if he has T9, 99 or KK then he has forced you into a play where you go broke, he knows you have the right odds to call with your str draw. If the player is that adept, don't worry your money was soon gone anyways. To do this play he has to make sure you don't have AA, which is a pretty adept considering you could have AA-QQ giving you raised 3xBB in MP with no chance to reraise. Other wise he would have just called with T9 or KK, trying to get more chips from you on the turn.
c) he could be completely bluffing with a hand that is ahead right now, ie , A9, 88, 77, 66 but knows by your bet that the flop missed you. Which is a VERY standard play on a flop with two to a pair when first person bets. (his bet assumes most people will fold their draws)Your hand wont have
him highcarded but now your up to 15 outs and way ahead in the hand.
d) he has AA, QQ and you should call with your draw because of a) above
So if you would fold in this spot your not playing QJ through, you need a miraculous flop to defend your bets or your 3x original bet is nothing more then a weak steal and you can't win very much getting in MP with low bets that give a tip in odds and position to followers. You will lose alot of chips to reraises and flop bets.
The above is based on the betting that has happened so far. The mistake here is you are committed to the pot with the 20K bet if he goes all in.
But then again if you check on the flop it could be considered weakness, and you will have to reraise his bet or fold. By some chance if you get a free card and if you miss this hand on the turn, you have to you give it up as your getting WAY less then the required 4-1 odds you need to make this call. If you miss the turn, then ALL of his chips are most likely going in the middle and your folding.
I like the bet on the flop, but 12-15k allows you to get out or might give you a chance to reraise and take the pot. I like checking even better then the 20K bet, against good players this will let you reraise -get a free card - or fold if he overbets the pot (only if your play is defensive - and you want to be conservative in chips for whatever reason - an overbet makes me wanna call even moreÂ
I think there are two styles of play here; the fold just seems so wrong instinctively to me, but then I do then to have massive chip leads or bust out early in tourneys.
sol.