Pacific 200K hand analysis

ryanhealy

So I played the Pacific 200K tonight and I was doing alright for myself until what I see as one crucial mistake. I'd like to hear what some of you guys think. I don't have exact hand history but heres the scenario.

I've got approx. 6000 in chips and the blinds are 150-300. Avg stack is floating around 4K.

I get moved to a new table right into the big blind. I get dealt 5-7 spades and its checked around to the SB , who is sitting with about 3000 and he calls, I check. The flop comes down K-J-2 with only one spade and the SB bets out the minimum 300. Heres where the mistake is, instead of just laying down my likely beat hand, I decide that if the SB had a relatively strong hand on this flop, a J or K, he'd probably have put out more of a pot sized bet. So I decide he's either stealing or holding something very weak and I decide I'll resteal and represent a K, so I reraise to 1200 and he calls. Crap. The turn is the ace of spades and he checks it to me, now I feel like he was playing a weaker hand preflop, and with the A and the K out, I can take the pot with a follow up steal. So I bet out 1200 again. He pushes in the remainder of his stack over the top, which isnt much, a couple hundred, so I call hoping a lucky river will make my flush. It doesnt.

He turns over A-2 for 2 pair and I'm down to around 3000 in chips, and of course the blinds go up the next hand. I never recovered from that mistake and went out in 224th. Top 90 pay.

So here are the major mistakes I see that I made.

1) I'm at a brand new table and I've never seen this guy play before. I have no clue as to what his betting patterns or hand standards are, which means I should be being extra careful and not extra careless.

2) I'm not short stacked going into the hand, with about 20X BB and a higher than avg. stack. However I'm not large stacked enough that a failed resteal attempt won't hurt my stack in a significant way. As it turns out, very significantly.

3) He made a minimum bet on the flop, so if my steal is successful Im addiing 600 to what my stack was preflop. However, if my steal is unsuccesful, I'm llosing my original 300, plus my 1200 on the flop, for a total of 1500. Thats not a very good risk/reward.

4) When he calls the raise on the flop, I should put him on a J or K and not on an extremely weak holding. Although it turns out he made the call with just the bottom pair ace kicker, that doesnt matter, I have to give him credit for something stronger, so the resteal is just another mistake compounded on top of the initial one.

So basically I'm pretty sure I screwed up big and these are the reasons why. Anyone else have any other analysis theyd like to add? I'm sure there are aspects I'm missing.

SirWatts

Yeah I see no reason to make a play here, basically what happens in the hand is a big part of why. Obviously your opponent played the hand teribly and your read was right, and yiou still lost. When the pot is only 2BB a min bet isn't necessarily weak anyways, and like you siad youhad no read to think it was. That being said I think you should check the turn and hope you catch. I'd almost certainly fire again in the heat of the moment but once he calls the flop it seems unlikely you can move him off his hand. The abundance of poor players on pacific makes me dislike this more as well.

Redington

Looks like a bad time to run a bluff...

After the call the 1200 on the flop, he has shown you he is committed to this hand. You should have been done with it.

He has committed over half his stack already, why would he fold on the turn? He made the mistake of giving you a free card which would have given you the nutz, thats your edge.

- you don't know if he would fold - you have no information to run a bluff yet
- if he doesn't fold but you win at showdown, look at what happens to your image

If he is actually a good player, not just pacific puddy:
- you made decisions based on assumptions, the minimum bet with someone in his chip position could also be a value bet not a weak holding - you really don't know what the min bet meant
- with any combination of KK, JJ, 22, you bet preflop and KJ, QT, AT, even Kx wouldn't you try and steal preflop? You just checked if your going to set this up a preflop bet would give you more credibility on the flop. Also with the QT for a semi bluff, would you have checked?
- if you had K2-J2 or Kx, Jx, would you want to scare him out of the hand? He is betting into you and if you had any of these wouldn't you want to milk him? A min raise sends a scarry message, saying hey I want you along for the ride! But your going to bet the turn, and here it would have killed you.

So the mistakes I see are;
You ran a good play, but didnt know if you had fold equity.
Then you didn't realize how committed to the pot he was, which should have slowed you down.
Also without showing strength for your hand preflop, it makes it hard to believe your post flop reraise.

Jay

Since you just moved to the table and yet to have an idea of how everyone plays, I would just fold. No need to play a big pot before getting to know the table.

Dave Scharf

I've got approx. 6000 in chips and the blinds are 150-300. Avg stack is floating around 4K.

I am in great shape. I have lots of room to "monkey around" play my "A" game.

I get moved to a new table right into the big blind. I get dealt 5-7 spades and its checked around to the SB , who is sitting with about 3000 and he calls, I check. The flop comes down K-J-2 with only one spade and the SB bets out the minimum 300. Heres where the mistake is, instead of just laying down my likely beat hand, I decide that if the SB had a relatively strong hand on this flop, a J or K, he'd probably have put out more of a pot sized bet. So I decide he's either stealing or holding something very weak and I decide I'll resteal and represent a K, so I reraise to 1200 and he calls.

Yeah... I favour folding. Bluffing with outs is desirable. Here you are making a pure bluff.

Crap. The turn is the ace of spades and he checks it to me, now I feel like he was playing a weaker hand preflop, and with the A and the K out, I can take the pot with a follow up steal. So I bet out 1200 again. He pushes in the remainder of his stack over the top, which isnt much, a couple hundred, so I call hoping a lucky river will make my flush. It doesnt.

This is why you shoudl not have bet this turn. THis is, I think, Sklansky's "mountain to molehill." You have a free draw against a hand that has you beat. Take the free draw. In particular, the ace is the most likely card to improve his hand to two pair.

He turns over A-2 for 2 pair and I'm down to around 3000 in chips, and of course the blinds go up the next hand. I never recovered from that mistake and went out in 224th. Top 90 pay.

Sheesh. I didn't even peek ahead when I predicted two pair.

1) I'm at a brand new table and I've never seen this guy play before. I have no clue as to what his betting patterns or hand standards are, which means I should be being extra careful and not extra careless.

This isn't a big deal, I don't think. If you have flopped a spade draw I woudl applaud your flop play. The bigger problem, I think, is that you had NOTHING.

2) I'm not short stacked going into the hand, with about 20X BB and a higher than avg. stack. However I'm not large stacked enough that a failed resteal attempt won't hurt my stack in a significant way. As it turns out, very significantly.

If you had ended at the 1200 loss if still would not have been a big deal. But, you pressed your steal attempt past what you shoudl have.

4) When he calls the raise on the flop, I should put him on a J or K and not on an extremely weak holding. Although it turns out he made the call with just the bottom pair ace kicker, that doesnt matter, I have to give him credit for something stronger, so the resteal is just another mistake compounded on top of the initial one.

On that flop you ahve to give him credit for SOMETHING. He is not on a draw. And, he has shown a willingness to call raises with what he's got. Stop raising him.