NL Cash Game Hand - For Discussion
I would like to hear some thoughts on the following hand came up playing 1/2 at Seneca Casino this Friday.
Very passive game 4 limpers for $2 button makes it $7 I call with A :c: J :c: in the SB everyone calls 7 to the flop – pot $46 after rake flop is J :h: 9 :c: 3
:, I make an exploratory bet of $15 terrible lady calls and button calls - $91 in pot. Turn is a 10 :c: and I bet $25 terrible lady calls and button raises to $75 I have exactly $50 left so its $50 into a pot of $216 so I call trying to hit my club, terrible lady folds. The river is the most beautiful K :c: I have ever seen to win me the hand. Button shows KQ for turned nut straight.
Now I am pretty sure I had odds to draw to my flush but not quite if button or terrible lady has a set. What do you think of my line on this hand? Should I of bet more on flop? Went for a check raise? Your comments are appreciated.
Very passive game 4 limpers for $2 button makes it $7 I call with A :c: J :c: in the SB everyone calls 7 to the flop – pot $46 after rake flop is J :h: 9 :c: 3
:, I make an exploratory bet of $15 terrible lady calls and button calls - $91 in pot. Turn is a 10 :c: and I bet $25 terrible lady calls and button raises to $75 I have exactly $50 left so its $50 into a pot of $216 so I call trying to hit my club, terrible lady folds. The river is the most beautiful K :c: I have ever seen to win me the hand. Button shows KQ for turned nut straight.Now I am pretty sure I had odds to draw to my flush but not quite if button or terrible lady has a set. What do you think of my line on this hand? Should I of bet more on flop? Went for a check raise? Your comments are appreciated.
Comments
Preflop. Call is OK from the SB unless you put the button as an extremely tight player, and even then I think I still call. I think I'd tend to fold AJo though.
Flop: You bet 15 into a pot of 46 putting 61 dollars in pot and 15 to call. You're giving open ended straight draws odds to call (T8, QT). As well, you may get gutshots to the nuts ie. KQ calling as well since they also have overcard outs and the implied odds of hitting the T is big. I think you have to bet bigger here. I guess your main concern is that you could be betting into an overpair. I think I bet closer to pot sized here (or possibly check-raise if the original better is aggressive).
Turn: Pot is now 91 dollars. Turn card is scary, could have made someone 2 pair, a straight. Your hand is vulnerable, but you did pick up a big redraw. I don't like the $25 dollar bet. Even if you are ahead, your giving a hand like QJ outs to call and try to hit a 9, K or Q. I think I favor checking here, although I'm not completely averse to pushing either (since you have a big redraw) , but I don't like the middle ground. You're giving odds to call if you are ahead and you're asking to be raised if you're behind. When it's 50 dollars back to you with the pot at $216 with your big draw you have to call I think. You're getting a little better than 4:1 on your call which is about the same as the odds to hit your draw. Plus there is some chance that an A or J could win it for you, or that your hand could possibly even be good. I think the KQ played the hand well up to the turn, I think he needed to bet more (I likely push there) since his hand was still vulnerable to the flush draw, and by then the pot is fairly big.
Just my 2 cents...
They were suited.
Personally I don't hait the play. Perhaps a bigger bet on the flop would be better. I agree with you there.
Some second order (but still possibly important) considerations are implied odds (i.e. will the lady call the additional $50 behind you?), and the presence of clubs in the opponents' hands.
On the flop, I'd be primarily looking to shut down the action. A bet of around $15 seems right. Your hand might be best right now. Even if not, you still may be drawing live to 2 pair or trips, and have the backdoor clubs. I'd be willing to put some money in on the flop, but would want to avoid getting moved in on in the flop betting round. Checking the flop is not unreasonable either.
The turn is a difficult spot. With a much deeper stack, I would again be attempting to freeze the action on the turn. With only $75 left into a $91 pot, and with a hand that has a lot of nut outs, possible secondary outs (A or J), and an outside chance of even being the best hand right now, I would give serious thought to just moving all-in. Betting $25 leaves you pretty close to being pot stuck yourself if raised, with almost chance of getting rid of a better hand or something like AQ, because you are offering them generous immediate pot odds of around 5 to 1. That seems like a lose-lose bet size.
Looks to me like the turn is a nice opportunity to run a big all-in semi-bluff. Finally a WPT-esque play which is also pretty sound poker!
ScottyZ
I assume we take this flop 7 handed, and the call pre-flop I think is not bad. Â Having played in that game before I like big suited cards for a small raise.
so $47 pre flop you lead for about 1/3 the pot again I like this play. Â Good feel better, pocket Q's or better will hopefully raise their hands and let you know where you stand at this point, plus just jacks should be easy enough to let go of if you get re-raised to $45 or so (a raise I would make if I still held an over pair to the board).
All calls so you must feel pretty good about your hand. Â the 10 is pretty much a scare card at this point so I may not have lead into the field or maybe bet the same $15 again so I can get away from the hand if re-raised a large amount. Â With two flop calls (and the pre-flop raiser just flat calling you could be up against a big hand already and be forced to put in all your chips on a draw. Â Either way I like your play so far. Â
So now we do the math right? Â the pot is $91 going into the turn with top pair and the nut draw. Â I tend to lean on the side of caution when calculating odds so that I don't make pot odds calls without the right odds. Â Profitable plays only work if you calculate correctly. Â $91 in the pot and you lead $25 (pot is now $116), if this bet gets you the pot right now I like it... although at 4:1 odds for every one else in the hand you will probably get callers who are correctly calling with sets (10 outs, or 4:1 to fill up) or open end draws (6 outs or 8:1, flush cards excluded, to make their straight, implied odds considered here with three players left) and this is assuming your Jack is still the best hand right now. Â So, while your true outs at this point are only 6 clubs (not the J or 3 of clubs and excluding a straight flush club) you will probably win if you hit any club so we call it 7 clubs if we think we are already up against a set. Â Worst case scenario you are up against a made straight and a set which gives you only 7 clubs and we cannot count your Ace as two pair won't win nor would another Jack.
Assuming, you need a club to win the pot your $25 should not pot commit you which is why I'm not sure I would have taken this route. Â Moving all in is an option if you think you hold the best hand now and if you aren't best you atleast caught your draw on the turn. Â The $25 just kinda sticks you in limbo somewhere.
As it was, the pot when it got back to you was $216 and you had to call $50. Â Assuming you were beat you have 9 outs but as above we should really only consider 7 of them. Â So you are looking at 4.32:1 pot odds and to hit your winner your odds are 6.57:1 Â It's clear that you weren't getting enough to call. Â If you include the lady calling behind you your pot odds become 5.32:1, still not enough. Â If you had more chips behind and could then get more bets on the river it may sway your call to one side or the other.
I would have preferred checking the turn and then seeing what transpired, the lady may have checked and the button then may have made a "value bet" trying to get more money in the pot. Â Maybe he bets $25 when the pot is $91 and you can then call including the lady behind you who we already knew would call $25 (assumption) and we get to include the implied odds that you get calls on the end when you hit your hand. Â This makes your turn call 2.82:1 (excluding pot odds), lets assume you get two calls at $30 on the river increasing the pot to $201 ($141 + $60) this makes the call on the turn 8.04:1 and a marginally profitable call.
Thats my two cents. Â It all makes sense but may be slightly difficult to read. Â
Hope this helps some what!
However I think I put in some wrong numbers for the odds... I will address them when I go home... office and poker sure don't mix well
Not too mention me and Scotty seem to be on the same page. I feel good about that!
(although Scotty seems more articulate with his answer and was able to do it in much fewer words)
Kudos to Scotty!
A set is actually ahead, so the price doesn't really matter. I guess if you think you can bet a set off the pot it might, but that's pretty tough to do.
Slightly confused again. The J of club is in hero's hand. There is no sf draw to beat the nut flush. 9 clubs are likely good, but yes against a set 2 will be gone.
Maybe if you ONLY consider the worst case scenario. I don't think you can do that. I think you have to evaluate the likely range of hands and the rough number of outs you have. You have 7 "solid" outs. You probably have 9 if there's no set. Let's say there's a 50% chance of a set, that should give you on average one out with the 2 clubs that pair the board. And there is some chance that either the A or J could make you the best hand as well (partial outs since you should discount the value of these). Maybe only 10% of the time these outs are good, so this gives you maybe half an out. As well there is some small chance that you might have the best hand. So maybe on average 8.5 outs and a small chance of having the best hand. I think it's borderline, but a call. If you feel even more strongly from the action that there is no set, I think it's a clear call.
To be honest, when I bet $25 on the turn I felt I was committing myself to the hand and was hoping the terrible lady would come along some to justify my chase.
About an hour later I won the biggest pot of my life. I was up to about $320 at that point and UTG raised to $15 this real tight guy with about $500 behind raises to $40 and I look down and see two red aces and raise to $120 UTG folds and tight guy quickly moves allin, I call and of course he has KK flop turn and river are safe. i rack up one orbit later a happy man.
I agree with you here Scooby but the issue is whether or not the odds to draw against a bigger hand are correct. Not to mention the set is not ahead here. The nut straight is a lock at this point, so getting the odds is important. Again, I do agree hands are normally not played like this though, the set still thinks they're good and raise on the turn, only to run into a bigger hand. My point of view is more aimed towards the hand you are representing by betting the turn when the three card straight is on the board.
When I stated his "true outs" you have to exclude either the 7, 8 or 9 of clubs. These all make straight flush cards. But as you can see in my calculations I did not use 6 outs I used 7 as the "safer" calculation. If you wanted to get real dirty we can probably safely say that the amount of times your Ace is good as an out you can eliminate that out for the amount of times your Ace high flush gets beat by a straight flush.
Again I agree with you here as well but I think a couple things should be said. It is unclear what the raisor has at this point but what range of hands can you really put him on. to raise from late position I have to give him credit for a couple of big cards at least or a middle pair or maybe it was some mid-high suited connectors. on a board that contains a 9, 10, J, and the range of hands I would put him on makes me thing he just got clobbered by the flop. now if we look back to the way the hand was played, raise on the button, smooth call two players on the flop then make a big raise on the turn indicates strength.
So my comment here is two fold if we think back to what our opponent is going to do or what they have now that the board is a scare board based on our range of hands, a check is good here. Then hopefully we get that small bet as indicated in my above post. Or we don't get our money in when we are behind.
That key factor here is what is our oponent holding, and are we behind at this point?
This leads me to another point about the set, if he is behind he was getting good odds to call. Whetehr he knew he was behind or not was another issue (assuming there was a set out there). It is common for players to make what I call "correct mistakes" where they had no idea what they were up against but they made the correct play by accident.
What do you think Scooby... does that make more sense?
Sorry, I meant the set is ahead vs. Hero's hand.
Crap. You're right, I missed the potential SF draws. I think the chances of this though are fairly low though. As well, I think if one of those hands (eg. 76c) is out there and actually calls, it still is correct for Hero to call (since now he's getting much better pot odds, even if he does lose one out).
I agree with you there. I think I lean toward checking (hoping to get a weak bet), but I don't hate the semi-bluff push either since the hero has a big redraw (and occaisionally might be ahead). I don't like the middle ground though.
Not 100% sure what you mean here, but I'm going to take a stab at it. I think if you knew specifically that you were up against a set, calling would be very borderline. But vs. the range of hands you MIGHT be up against, I think calling is correct. Eg. if you have KK and flop is K44 and the guy pushed you would obviously call vs. the range of hands you could be up against, even though if you specifically KNEW that the other player had 44, you wouldn't. Or am I way off-base here?
Close. What I'm refering to is the the fact that you don't know what you are up against or could potentially be up against. If I could see through cards I would make perfect reads based on odds etc etc... but the imperfect information is what makes the game interesting. Specifically, a set would probably feel pretty good in this situation, not realizing they are way behind. SO, they decide to trap, or slow play and smooth call. Or even worse they revert to the check and call game. Now, their call is correct because they are getting the right odds to call. When honestly most of them are calling because they are playing the hand poorly or just not prepared to throw away a set.
In conclusion the make the right call but for the wrong reasons. a "correct mistake"
Hey Scoob, thaks for the discussion... this is good stuff!