Hand for review/analysis/opinions
We play a regular Sunday night game, 40.00 buy-in, 8 players, 2000 chips to start. After a few games last night, 3 people left and 5 of us continued for a few hours playing 5 handed sit-and-go's. The following hand came up and I wanted to know what you think Dave, as well as any others who would like to share their opinions or analysis. Now 3 quick notes before I explain the hand: First, we all know each other quite well and are good friends, it's quite a friendly and casual game, but not at the expense of good play. Second, the first 4 cards on the board were all four suits so a flush was never a possibility, so I will leave out the suits of any cards in the explanation. Third, I'm not going to tell you which player I was, just so I can get a true and honest opinion of everyone's play. I will tell you who I was and my thought process after I get some responses.
First level, blinds 25/50.
Seat 1 is SB, Seat 2 is BB, Seat 3 fold, Seat 4 folds, Seat 5 calls, SB completes 50, BB raises 150 to 200, Seat 5 calls, SB calls. 600 in pot.
Flop - A Q 10
Seat 1 checks, Seat 2 bets 200, Seat 5 calls, Seat 1 calls. 1200 in pot.
Turn - K
Seat 1 checks, Seat 2 bets 300, Seat 5 calls, Seat 1 calls. 2100 in pot
River - Q
Seat 1 bets 1000, Seat 2 raises all-in to 1450, Seat 5 calls all in for 1150, Seat 1 calls 450. 6150 in pot.
Seat 2 shows AJ for nut straight
Seat 5 shows AJ for nut straight
Seat 1 shows QK for full house
2 players eliminated, Seat 2 now has over 60% of money in play.
Opinions? Did anyone do anything good/bad here? We talked about it a lot, so I wanted some outside opinions, especially yours Dave.
Thanks,
Sean
First level, blinds 25/50.
Seat 1 is SB, Seat 2 is BB, Seat 3 fold, Seat 4 folds, Seat 5 calls, SB completes 50, BB raises 150 to 200, Seat 5 calls, SB calls. 600 in pot.
Flop - A Q 10
Seat 1 checks, Seat 2 bets 200, Seat 5 calls, Seat 1 calls. 1200 in pot.
Turn - K
Seat 1 checks, Seat 2 bets 300, Seat 5 calls, Seat 1 calls. 2100 in pot
River - Q
Seat 1 bets 1000, Seat 2 raises all-in to 1450, Seat 5 calls all in for 1150, Seat 1 calls 450. 6150 in pot.
Seat 2 shows AJ for nut straight
Seat 5 shows AJ for nut straight
Seat 1 shows QK for full house
2 players eliminated, Seat 2 now has over 60% of money in play.
Opinions? Did anyone do anything good/bad here? We talked about it a lot, so I wanted some outside opinions, especially yours Dave.
Thanks,
Sean
Comments
Preflop, he should open-raise with AJ from the button after it's been folded to him. But, he limped, and when seat 2 pops it 150, just calling is fine IMO. I don't mind a re-raise to 350 either.
On the flop, I'd raise seat 2's bet to 500 or so, to get seat 1 out of the hand if he has a stray king or jack, and maybe to take it down right there.
On the turn, I don't mind the smoothcall with the nuts, because now he wants seat 1 to stick around and hopefully pay off on the river. I think raising the minimum to 600 is fine here too, although the stacks are fairly shallow for these types of big bets, so a smooth-call is probably best.
On the river, seat 5 hates that card. Seat 1 makes a big bet, seat 2 moves all-in. Hmm. Hmmmmm. Could I lay down my straight after the board pairs on the river? After a big bet that commits seat 1 and a big all-in re-raise from seat 2? I just might lay it down. A straight on that board is so obvious that at least one of them has it, and the other one probably beats it. The chances that one of the players has AQ, QT, or QK and the other has a straight are better than both of the players having a straight, especially since Seat 5 is holding one of the jacks himself. I'd call time, and think and think and think, mostly about what I know of the other players.
Seat 1 (QK):
Preflop, just calling from the small blind is fine, and just calling seat 2's raise is fine too.
On the flop, calling the 200 bet is fine with middle pair and a gutshot straight draw. If seat 5 had raised the flop, seat 1 should fold.
On the turn, seat 1 has got to be sure that he's beat, and drawing to four outs. He's facing a 300 bet to call into an 1800-chip pot--which is not sufficient to make this call correct for four outs--BUT he has the advantage of knowing that he will close the action for that round. Furthermore, he has sufficient implied odds because he's fairly sure that his opponents have big hands (at least one straight) that they might not be able to lay down on the river if he hits. I might call here. It depends on the player... if he plans to fold his hand on the river if he misses (which he certainly should) that will leave him with 1300 chips. (Assuming he started the hand with exactly 2000). If he is the type of player who will tilt after this type of a hit early in the game and just throw the rest of his chips away, he should fold the turn and save the 300 chips (and maybe quit poker altogether, and go home.) If he is the type of player who can battle back from 1300 to win the thing with a clear head, he should probably call. I don't hate calling, but it depends on him and whether or not he has a defeatist attitude.
On the river, I like the fact that he bet out. 1000 is good, too. He hit his card, he knows he'll get paid off by at least one straight (probably), and he wants to make that straight pay. Unlikely that it would get checked around if he checked, but better safe than sorry.
Seat 2 (AJ):
Preflop, I like the raise. He has to think he has the best hand with AJ after the button and small blind just called.
On the flop, I'd probably bet 300 or 400, again to get any stray kings or jacks out of the hand. 200 into a 600 pot on that flop with 2 opponents isn't quite enough, IMO.Â
On the turn, he bets 300 into a 1200 pot. He has the nuts now. Now I don't mind a smaller bet... his opponents would have to be drawing fairly thin to beat him on the river, and he is giving them a price that would be incorrect for them to call unless they have a set. He has no reason to believe that either of his opponents have a set based on the way the preflop and the flop action went, so 300 is enough.
On the river, seat 1 bets a lot. Seat 2 now has to think about whether seat 1 would make that kind of bet with a weaker hand than a straight. He (unlike seat 5) doesn't have the advantage of knowing what BOTH of his opponents are doing on the river, so a call (or an all-in raise, obviously) for him here is more reasonable than it would be for seat 5. For seat 2, it depends what he knows about seat 1. I think the all-in raise isn't terrible. But, the interesting thing is that Seat 1 HAS TO HAVE A HAND better than 3 of a kind. At LEAST a straight. There's an obvious 4-straight on the board, so seat 2 has to know that seat 1 knows that anyone with a jack has a straight. But seat 1 bets most of his stack anyways. This tells me that seat 1 has at least a straight, but he just called on the turn when he would have made his straight (if that's what he has) instead of check-raising. It's a weird way to play a straight on the turn from seat 1's position. If I thought about all of this stuff for a while, I might fold the river if I was seat 2. It'd be tough, but what else could seat 1 have besides a full house, unless he is a complete and total maniac, or a complete and total fish, or both? A straight? Maybe, but if that's what it is it's played out all weird on the turn. Anything less than a straight? Not bloody likely with that board. I'd try to find it in me, based on all of this, to lay down my hand in Seat 2's spot, but I'm not sure if I could.Â
Excellent post, very interesting, and I'm looking forward to reading other people's comments!
Basically, NOBODY is bluffing here. Nobody can be bluffing, given the betting action with the calls and particularly given the texture of the board. With 3 people in the hand, with that board, with that betting action, nobody is making any moves.Â
I think seat 2 has the toughest decision on the river. Seat 5, the more and more I think about it, should be folding. I know I alluded to that in my previous post, but the more I think about it, the more certain I am. Seat 2's decision is tougher because A) obviously only one player has acted ahead of his instead of two, and
And, seat 1's decision on the turn is a pretty tough one, too. I honestly think that his decision on the turn should be based on whether or not he feels he can play his 'A' game with 1300 chips after he folds the river (which he will, more often than not).
You should have titled this thread 'Reality Check', but I'm not 100% sure exactly why.Â
I like Seat 2's raise from the BB. It is likely he has the best had after two limpers, and he can pick up the pot right there. His flop bet is too small though, I would've went with around 350-400 to get those middling pairs out or punish the straight draws chasers. He should've bet more on the turn as well, about half the pot. I couldn't have got away on the river.
Seat 5 should be raising AJ on the button preflop. I would raise the weak flop bet to 600 for the same reasons why Seat 2 should've bet more on the flop. Throughout the hand, I think Seat 5 played way too passively. I think he could've gottan away from the hand on the river, facing an all-in bet and a re-raise all-in after the board paired.
I don't like Seat 1's play preflop, calling with a hand that could be dominated in so many ways out of position. You can't fault him for calling the weak flop/turn bets though, that's the other players' fault.
This is an unusual pogression and, generally, the sign of weak play on the part of the button. Limp and then call 150 into a pot of 300. I would tend to re-raise here or fold. But, with a hand like a pocket pair or suited connectors and deep chips, it's a viable play.
Ugh. There are some BIG hands out there. This is an uber-dangerous board.
???? Another weird street. I will guess a straight versus two sets.
I will guess two full houses -- seat 5 has the small one -- and one straight.
Nope....
OK, by street.
Pre-flop
Seat 5 -- the original limp is OK, but I HATE the flat call of the raise. Short handed or not this hand can get you in a LOT of trouble. I prefer to raise in the first place. But, it I limp then I am going to fold or re-raise depending upon what I think of seat 2's raising range and his ability to put a hand down.
Seat 1 -- original call OK. Call of raise also OK because you know you are getting both opponents.
Seat 2 -- I like the play.
On the flop.
Seat 1 - Check and fold. You have 6 probable outs four of which will not get you any action. Weak hand with bad implied odds, get out.
Seat 2 - Bet. You probably have the best and you have a guthsot to fall back on. But, bet enough to make it hurt since you can expect that your opponents may have a piece of this flop.
Seat 5 - I like the call. You have position, possibly the best hand. Someone is drawing thin. It might be you it might be the other guy, let's see what the turn brings.
On the turn
Seat 1 - Check and call if you are getting the odds to draw to 4 outs. In this case he has to call 300 into 1800. At 6-1 plus some implied odds, I like the call.
Seat 2 - Bet enough to make a 10 out draw not worth hitting (someone with a set), but little enough to be tempting. 800 looks about right, I think.
Seat 3 - Wrong time to slow play. You are giving any draws good odds by flat calling. Make a raise. I would go to 1000 flat from the 300.
On the river
Seat 1 - Nice bet.
Seat 2 - AAALLLAARRRMMMM. The ONLY thing that will call you is a hand that will tie or BEAT you. You can't win more money with this hand. A raise will not win more, it will only lose more. Call, maybe. Raise, NEVER.
Sea2 5 - Very tough spot. I probably fold, but it's tough laydown. The only way you win this hand is if you all have the SAME hand. So, you are paying 1450 to win 700. Muck it.
Knowing my opponents was a HUGE part of this hand, I put Rich (seat 2) on an ace by his preflop raise and postflop bet, and nailed him bang on with AJ after he bet the turn with a 4-straight up. Greg (Seat 5), I was pretty sure had the identical hand but he's a more passive player, so I knew he would just call and not raise with the nut straight with 3 players still in the pot. Also, I sensed that they were keeping the bet small to try and keep anyone drawing (ie: me) in the pot to get paid off more.
My big decision came on the turn. I'm getting 6-1, but I have 4 outs to make my hand (2 Q, 2K). Not enough to make the call, but in the post hand argument/discussion, I said that the implied odds of busting at least one and possibly both of them out of the game if I hit was too much NOT to call for only 300. I probably fold for 400, and definitely for 500, and cry myself to sleep when the river comes. 300 keeps me drawing.
Also, I was already chip leader, so I knew that laying down my hand on the river would be easy if I didn't hit one of those 4 cards, and I would be left with close to 2000 anyways. In response to all_aces' comment of being able to come back from 1300 or so, I factor that in as well, and I don't just give the chips away after a beat.
My 1000 bet was tailored to the player in seat 2 who I know can't lay down a hand that was once the nuts. A smaller bet just gets called, and a bigger bet induces seat 5 to fold. I honestly thought seat 5 would fold the straight anyways, so his call was a surprise, but the lead out bet was to maximize value on the river.
Again, thanks for the input, I appreciate it.
Sean (Waterloo)