Late MMT leak?

This exact situation has happened to me in that last 3 pokerroom $20K tourneys I've played...

The situation:

Sat's tourney is a $50K - Top 90 payout,
Mon 20K Top 70
Tues 20K Top 70.

In all cases, it was more important for me to get in the $ than take a huge chip lead intothe final 7 or 9 tables.
(Wanting to ensure a positive bankroll experience, the big $ will come when the time is right)

Sat's - I'm on the bubble with relatively low stack, manage to get in $
Mon's - Comfortably in $
Tue's - Bubble, same scenario as Sat, manage to get in.

Once in the $, it usually takes another 3 hrs to settle things and declare a winner, so I know there's
a lot of poker left...

My leak (I think) BB play.

Sat - J9 in BB, One early limp, SB limps. Flop is K 9 rag rainbow.
SB, checks, I bet about 1/2 my stack (which I assume will get a call from larger stack early),
early calls, SB folds. Turn rag. At this point I think early probably sitting on A or K. I push hoping
he's sitting on an A, knowing he'll call. If I didn't push, I expected him to put me all-in.
River is a rag and he shows a K.

Mon - similar situation, but with a little more chips and A9 in BB. Catch 9 on the flop, lose a large portion of stack
to early limper sitting on a K. Flop K 9 rag again, flush draw possible. I bet 3XBB and get called only by early pos.
Turn, rag, no flush yet. I check, early checks. River rag, but made possible flush. I bet pot. Early calls and shows his K.

Tues - almost identical to Sat, small stack, hit 2nd pair on flop, push and get called by 1 early limper who catches overcard.

So, knowing that there's still a good 2 1/2 hrs to go in this thing is my BB play killing me? :rage:

Comment please!
:)

Comments

  • It sounds like you overvalue (and possibly overbet) 2nd pair.
  • I agree your over betting and playing your 2nd pair.If your in the $ the play "should" be better. In the first situation with a large bet with second pair and there's no flush or straight draw on the board, if someone smooth calls you, you can bet your beat. best thing for you to do is check the turn and let the other player make the move. If he bets you fold.
  • I think it depends how short your stack is. A king is a card that is reasonably liekly to have hit the typical limper. If you are in desperation range (say 6xBB or less) you probably want to push on the flop with only one person left behind you since the pot is already huge for you and you don't want to allow a free card. There are definitely exceptions, I think if you have a good read on the limper it would be ok to check to him and see what he does, but it's risky. With a medium stack I would be more inclined to check and see what happens before making a play, and with a stack big enough that betting and then having to fold would not be a disaster I would fire out and try to win it right there. In hand 2 (the A9 one) with 10xBB or less I'm probably pushing preflop unless I have some read to think I might not have the best hand. On a bigger stack I might play it less aggressively since I don't want to risk all my chips and making a smaller raise leaves me out of position with a marginal hand (most players won't fold to a small-medium sized raise). When you're shortstacked you have to hope for a bit of luck though, especially with a decnt but vulnerbale hand like middle pair.
  • (Wanting to ensure a positive bankroll experience, the big $ will come when the time is right)

    Don't play a high variance (gasp.. there I am tossing around the V-word again) form of poker if 'ensuing a positive bankroll experience' is a goal for you.

    You need to play some gusty poker to win the big money, limping into 2-3x shouldn't make you happy.

    Wouldn't you be better off in a NL ring game?

    Here's the solution to your post-flop problem:

    "Don't go broke in an unraised pot"
  • Thanks for the replys so far...
    It sounds like you overvalue (and possibly overbet) 2nd pair.
    I don't disagree.  I guess I'm wondering at what factor of BB to you typically take
    a chance when short stacked and have hit any pair?

    best thing for you to do is check the turn and let the other player make the move. If he bets you fold.
    Yes - I agree, especially if I am up against a much larger stack.  What about a similar sized, or smaller stack?
    or just against SB?

    On a bigger stack I might play it less aggressively since I don't want to risk all my chips and making a smaller raise leaves me out of position with a marginal hand (most players won't fold to a small-medium sized raise). 
    Good point - it's a lot easier to drop second pair with a larger stack, especially when out of position.
    When you're shortstacked you have to hope for a bit of luck though, especially with a decnt but vulnerbale hand like middle pair
    Again, wondering what xBB = push and hope?  I realize other factors are at work...but with only an orbit or two to go??


    Don't play a high variance (gasp.. there I am tossing around the V-word again) form of poker if 'ensuing a positive bankroll experience' is a goal for you.

    In two these, I was very short stacked, with only a few people to go...i.e. 68-70th, so I shut it down until I was in to ensure a profit, so that's where I mean positive bankroll....

    "Don't go broke in an unraised pot"
    I've heard this before (lol) - but it really hits home in this context.

    I'll see if Mr. Plumber will get me through these types of hands late tonight...  :)

    Thanks again for the comments...and hey, BBC Z didn't tear a strip off of me, cool...  ;)
  • In two these, I was very short stacked, with only a few people to go...i.e. 68-70th, so I shut it down until I was in to ensure a profit, so that's where I mean positive bankroll....

    You actually didnt give us enough information about HOW shortsstacked you were.. posting the hand history along with your reads are better than abstractly talking about some hands.. anyway..

    Find the other players at your table shutting down to hit the money and steal the hell out of them. It's a golden opportunity for easy chips that you desperately need.

    Remember, You don't play tournaments to take 68th. You play them for top 3. Anything less is failure.
  • It sounds like you overvalue (and possibly overbet) 2nd pair.
    I don't disagree. I guess I'm wondering at what factor of BB to you typically take
    a chance when short stacked and have hit any pair?
    I've read somewhere between 5-10 BB. However, I'd also read that most players go in to soon. I tested that, and have tried hanging on until I have 2-3 BB left. Even though I'm "more" short-stacked, I've usually bought at least a couple dozen hands, and have been able to build my stack back up. If you remember Punky's, I got down to 3BB early (75-150), and again to 4BB later at 500-1000, and came back both times (until my AA got cracked by... who was it?). Personally, I've set my "push" mark at 3-6 BB's, depending on how I read my opponents. (any comments on this would be welcome as well, since I'm just figuring this out :) ).
  • Well, I'm taking this to the game tonight (right now...)

    34th out of 485 left, very early...
  • BBC Z wrote:
    Here's the solution to your post-flop problem:

    "Don't go broke in an unraised pot"

    This advice is great when you have a deep stack, especially in a typical cash game. When you are shortstacked towards the end of a tournament you must take any and all good oppurtunities (ie +EV) to increase your chips. It is fairly likely you have the best hand in the 3 hands he posted against the range of hands I would typically put the other players on. This particular piece of advice doesn't apply here at all imo.
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