Hand Analysis - I disagree with a pro!

Flint Bones

I would like some opinions on the following scenario. I read this as an example in a book and I am concerned since I seem to disagree with the author. I won’t say the book or the author but please comment on what you would do. I will post the book’s response later.

This is a cash Pot Limit Game.

Hero has 7s 7d. In the blind.

EP limps ($5 blind).
LP calls.
Hero checks.

Flop Js Jd 7h.

Hero checks.
EP Bets $15.
LP calls.
Hero raises $60.
EP fold.
LP raises $180.

What do you do?

zero

Call to show some weakness, then put in a big check raise on the turn.

the_main

depends on how deep our stacks are...

id likely push.... LP wants action with his jack, and still has outs to beat us

Tilter

I fold, because he isn't slowplaying his JJ (quads) :P

Nah, I probably smooth call and REPOT on turn.

EDIT: Just noticed we are out of position which makes it realy bait to checkraise the turn. I think a reraise on flop may be in order to maximize, but to garner more profits, a checkraise would probably get some money but may halt action on turn.

Flint Bones

This is interesting. I will wait for a few more and post the author's opinion on Sunday. I want to get as many opinions as possible.

westside8

Depends how much chips you have. If you are running low, the push max at the flop. With deep stack, I would just call and reraise on the turn.

Dick Hertz

RE RAISE!!

Dave Scharf

Hero has 7s 7d. In the blind.

EP limps ($5 blind).
LP calls.
Hero checks.

Flop Js Jd 7h.

Ding-ning-ning-ning. We are in GOOD shape. The main question here is "How can I get ALL of someone else's money.

Hero checks.

I prefer betting out, but check is OK too.

EP Bets $15.
LP calls.
Hero raises $60.
EP fold.
LP raises $180.

What he he got? He flat called the first bet THEN he re-raised a check raiser. He probably has a powerful hand. That, or an overpair that he is defining (unlikely since he was the second hand in) or a pure bluff. That the case of the last two you aren't getting any more action. In that case of the "big hand" then the only think you fear is JJ or J7. Chances are remote and I think he's married to the hand. I am re-raising right now and hoping to get him all in.

mrdeeds

For me I would just call and check-raise on the turn as well.  Though I am putting him on A or K-J right now, I hate getting a big portion of my chips in unless I have the nuts.   :s:

Flint Bones

Thanks for the great responses. I am inclined to re-raise here myself. However, according to Gary Carson, author of "The Complete Book of Hold 'Em Poker", he says to fold. He says that you are beaten. I think it is a little crazy to automatically assume he has J7 or JJ. There are a lot of reasons this player raised. AJ, KJ,AA and so on.

I will quote him exactly, "Here we have a player that has been quietly calling every bet until now, when the pot has gotten very large. Only now does he take the initiative and raise. This is the behaviour of a big hand. This player has a full house, and any full house will beat the full house that our pair of sevens makes. This is when you need to ask the question, "Am I beaten?" The only answer to that question is yes. It's time to fold."

So I disagree. I am glad to see I am not the only one.

NurseHoliday

I just want to clarify that Gary Carson is probably not what you would consider a PRO. He is actually an academic who likes to write the occasional book about poker or horseracing. He may well be a very good poker player, but I don't think he has ever "won" anything. Harrington on HOldem his book is certainly not.

SirWatts

Fold?... sure. Obviously he has quads.... What a joke. Yes his betting sequence means monster. Since when would holding KJ or AJ not be considered a monster?? That may be the most ridiculous advice I've ever heard. Folding something like JT or JQ would be fine probably assuming he's tight enough that he has to have you outkicked at the very least.

zero

I think thats terrible advice. A really tight player would definately play AJ or QQ-AA like that. I would never fold this hand.

AcidJoe

I would never fold that hand. If he had JJ I think he would have raised pre flop. Now AJ suited or so he woulda seen the flop hit trips and think he's in good position. Calling with J7 I don't think so. At the very least call him down. The pot is way to big to fold.

mclizzle

this exact thing happened to me(sort of).

flop J 7 7

turn 8
river Q

he had 77
i had JJ

:-(

*edit* i was never reraised

literation

I was thinking that too.  Have to at least call down.

AcidJoe wrote:

[snip snip]  At the very least call him down.

I have a way of losing money to quads

blueodum

There is almost no way he has JJ. Why wouldn't he just call your raise here - he'd have an unbeatable (in practical terms) hand and raising might chase you away. Because he could be calling with lots of different hands, it would be almost impossible for you to put him on JJ if he called, so trying to deceive you by doing something counter-intuitive (i.e raising with quads) doesn't make sense.

J7 is the only realistic possibility that has you beat so far. On the theory that you might have a Jack with a better kicker, he has to worry about you drawing to 3 outs, so he's putting the pressure on.

If he has AJ, he's ahead unless you have J7 or 77 (which you do). If he has Jx or 7x, he might be attempting to define his hand, trying to determine if he's behind. Possibly he's slowplayed KK or AA pre-flop in order to get more action, only to run into a problem flop. These are his likely holdings.

If he does have a Jack or any pair above 7's, you don't want to give him cheap draws to beat you. You should put in a good size re-raise here. No way on earth you should fold because there are a lot of hands he could have that you are trouncing right now and only one realistic holding that has you beat.


Folding here is the absolute epitome of weak-tight

literation

I thought someone had started a 'bad poker book' thread. ScottyZ agrees with you on this author...

http://www.pokerforum.ca/forum/index.php?topic=4461.msg37076#msg37076