The Week from hell - suggestions wanted
I play several no limit hold'em sit and gos a day and am one of those nut cases that tracks all sorts of data including details of all my all in battles. At times I get some odd short term streaks of luck, both good and bad, but this past week has completely defied all logic, and it is to the point that I am concerned it is impacting my game. The summary of the statistics are the following:
57 sit and gos total (47 1 table, 10 2 table). 10-50 dollar range each
106 all in battles ( 93 pre flop, 13 post flop)
Of the battles:
My over pair vs 2 undercards 3 total - I went 1 for 3 (and even that one I had to have river pair up the board for my 2 pairs to win)
My higher pair vs a lower pair - 10 total. I won 1 and lost 9. I lost all 5 AA all in pre flop battles I took part of (4 to lower pairs one to A 6 off suit, which cost me a WSOP seat)
My dominating hands (ie AK vs K 10 AQ vs Q 2 A 10 vs 10 8 etc) - 45 total. I won 9 lost 34 and tied 2
Coin flips (ie AK vs JJ) - 21 total. I won 4 lost 16 tied 1 (board was a flush)
My favored hands (ie A 10 vs KQ) - 7 total. I won 4 lost 3 ( my favorite heads up situation of the week :P )
My lower pair vs a higher pair - 4 total. I won 0.
My dominated hands - 4 total. I won 1 and lost 3
My underdog hands - 5 total. I won 1 and lost 4
7 hands are not easy to put in a category (ie draw vs draw post flop).
I realize bad beat tales are a dime a dozen, but this past week kind of has had a strange deeper impact on my perception of the game. The worst losses were the higher pairs vs lower pairs when there were 4 left with money to the top 3. I got knocked out 4 times that way( 3 times with AA) and I was never the low chip person and I began wondering if I should just fold even hands like AA and wait till I am in the money.
Some friends questioned whether it was the poker site, but it is Pokerstars where I have played for months and the losses were to a variety of players, so that theory doesn't hold.
Still, I have concerns that it is impacting my game. I am a fairly tight player and I am concerned I have become ultra tight now as a result. I take pride in getting myself into favorable positions nearly all the time (and have had solid results before this week), but now I am beginning to wonder if I am playing it wrong somehow.
I took a couple days off to get a break and started playing again today and so far in the 4 pre flop all ins I have lost AK to AJ, QQ to QJ, KK to 55 and 99 to A 5 so I have to say that my confidence this week has not yet returned.
Perhaps this past week is not as uncommon as I suspect and if so hearing that may help. I do wonder though as strange as this sounds, in the following situation - 4 people left, money for top 3. You have 4000 chips and person with 5000 chips is all in. Should I fold AA, KK and wait for the money if there are 1 to 2 people with tiny amounts of chips? One time I called with AA, lost to JJ while another person didnt even have enough chips for the next blind. As strange as it sounds, should I fold AA in that case and pretty much guarantee a payout?
Thank you in advance for any feedback or suggestions
57 sit and gos total (47 1 table, 10 2 table). 10-50 dollar range each
106 all in battles ( 93 pre flop, 13 post flop)
Of the battles:
My over pair vs 2 undercards 3 total - I went 1 for 3 (and even that one I had to have river pair up the board for my 2 pairs to win)
My higher pair vs a lower pair - 10 total. I won 1 and lost 9. I lost all 5 AA all in pre flop battles I took part of (4 to lower pairs one to A 6 off suit, which cost me a WSOP seat)
My dominating hands (ie AK vs K 10 AQ vs Q 2 A 10 vs 10 8 etc) - 45 total. I won 9 lost 34 and tied 2
Coin flips (ie AK vs JJ) - 21 total. I won 4 lost 16 tied 1 (board was a flush)
My favored hands (ie A 10 vs KQ) - 7 total. I won 4 lost 3 ( my favorite heads up situation of the week :P )
My lower pair vs a higher pair - 4 total. I won 0.
My dominated hands - 4 total. I won 1 and lost 3
My underdog hands - 5 total. I won 1 and lost 4
7 hands are not easy to put in a category (ie draw vs draw post flop).
I realize bad beat tales are a dime a dozen, but this past week kind of has had a strange deeper impact on my perception of the game. The worst losses were the higher pairs vs lower pairs when there were 4 left with money to the top 3. I got knocked out 4 times that way( 3 times with AA) and I was never the low chip person and I began wondering if I should just fold even hands like AA and wait till I am in the money.
Some friends questioned whether it was the poker site, but it is Pokerstars where I have played for months and the losses were to a variety of players, so that theory doesn't hold.
Still, I have concerns that it is impacting my game. I am a fairly tight player and I am concerned I have become ultra tight now as a result. I take pride in getting myself into favorable positions nearly all the time (and have had solid results before this week), but now I am beginning to wonder if I am playing it wrong somehow.
I took a couple days off to get a break and started playing again today and so far in the 4 pre flop all ins I have lost AK to AJ, QQ to QJ, KK to 55 and 99 to A 5 so I have to say that my confidence this week has not yet returned.
Perhaps this past week is not as uncommon as I suspect and if so hearing that may help. I do wonder though as strange as this sounds, in the following situation - 4 people left, money for top 3. You have 4000 chips and person with 5000 chips is all in. Should I fold AA, KK and wait for the money if there are 1 to 2 people with tiny amounts of chips? One time I called with AA, lost to JJ while another person didnt even have enough chips for the next blind. As strange as it sounds, should I fold AA in that case and pretty much guarantee a payout?
Thank you in advance for any feedback or suggestions
Comments
Of 45 dominating hands:
Let's say that the dominating hand has probability 0.65 of winning. (Note: it's usually around 60%-70% if it's pre-flop and depending on the exact cards... if anything, I think 65% is a conservative estimate.)
The probability of losing 34 or more hands out of 45 hands where you are a 0.65 favorite is:
>> 1 - binocdf(33,45,0.35)
ans =
3.352802369072094e-08
so the odds against this happening are about 30 million to 1.
So, in short, this kind of bad luck should pass.
Also, if you believe in some weird law of averages where good and bad luck eventually balance out, go and get a Lotto 6/49 ticket... you've got enough good luck on the horizon for two jackpot hits.
ScottyZ
I blame the site for cheating :roll:
But seriously, I think that I am just playing to much and find taking off a couple of days and shorting my session calms my paranoid thoughts. Not that that should have any affect in my AA and AK from winning or losing but at least I don't get them as much and therefore will HOPEFULLY win. Nah, they will still lose to some jerks A3o sitting in the work possible position.