How do I make the most of this?

Unknown

A couple of nights ago, 99 people left in a $10+1 rebuy tournament on Stars. Started with around 800, I think. I'm going to post the first half of a big hand. My question is, what does my opponent have, and how do I make the most from his holding?

PokerStars Game #437792301: Tournament #1582254, Hold'em No Limit - Level XII (1000/2000) - 2004/05/16 - 01:27:05 (ET)
Table '1582254 89' Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: ADF360 (10692 in chips)
Seat 2: Northwynd (82207 in chips)
Seat 3: Champion16 (110201 in chips)
Seat 4: TXACESUP (28305 in chips)
Seat 5: all aces (45373 in chips)
Seat 6: rambis (76192 in chips)
Seat 7: KOBIEWEL (21807 in chips)
Seat 8: Gentleben2 (12558 in chips)
Seat 9: ace14 (23061 in chips)
ADF360: posts the ante 100
Northwynd: posts the ante 100
Champion16: posts the ante 100
TXACESUP: posts the ante 100
all aces: posts the ante 100
rambis: posts the ante 100
KOBIEWEL: posts the ante 100
Gentleben2: posts the ante 100
ace14: posts the ante 100
ace14: posts small blind 1000
ADF360: posts big blind 2000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to all aces [Qc Jc]
Northwynd: calls 2000
Champion16: folds
TXACESUP: folds
all aces: calls 2000
rambis: folds
KOBIEWEL: folds
Gentleben2: folds
ace14: raises 2000 to 4000
ADF360: folds
Northwynd: calls 2000
all aces: calls 2000
*** FLOP *** [9h Qh Qs]
ace14: checks
Northwynd: bets 8000
all aces: calls 8000
ace14: folds
*** TURN *** [9h Qh Qs] [9c]
Northwynd: checks

So, what's my play here?

Results to follow,
all_aces

ScottyZ

Bet 8000. If called, bet 8000 on the river (except if a 9 falls).

My thinking is that your opponent has either 98s or T9s (not in hearts obviously) and makes a standard size bet on the flop in case he has the best hand.

If this is what your opponent has, he catches a good enough hand on the turn that may wish to go into check and call mode hoping to get to the showdown cheaply with a vulnerable hand which still has a chance to be the best. You might as well go along with this---overbetting here allows him to get away from a 9 too easily I think, unless you think your table image is such that you are capable of making a big bet bluff in such a spot.

IMO, you can pretty much proceed under the assumption that your opponent has a 9. You won't likely get any more chips whatever you try if he has a lesser hand, and you're screwed no matter what happens on the off chance he has 99 (though it's unlikely he limped in UTG with 99).

ScottyZ

Jay

I would've raised his bet after the flop to see if he had the other Q. If he calls, he has a Q or 9. If he re-raises, he has KQ or AQ. But it's doubtful that he has AQ, he would've raised with that preflop.

Putting that aside, on the turn I'd bet out to see what he does. He probably has a 9 since he checked. It's doubtful that he has 99.

Tilter

I just looked at the first half, I would most likely raise (probabaly all in since you only have 9000 ish chips left and the pot is 30k big). It would be hard to put him on a 99, mostly likely a AA, KK (betting out because he doesn't think you have the queen and doesn't want to show weakness) or AQ KQ (betting out with top pair) from his position.

ScottyZ

I would've raised his bet after the flop to see if he had the other Q.

I disagree. Why would it help you to know if your opponent has a Q or not? You can easily proceed under the assumption that he does not have a Q. I don't think you need to raise to get this information. It's just going to be a split pot if he does have a Q (or it will be pure luck which you can't do anything about if one of you hits your kicker).

I think this is a perfectly good time to call on the flop.

ScottyZ

kwplayer

I think the early position player's bet on the flop 8k was the standard "attempt to pickup the pot" play. Since these hand questions provide no information about how he played I will assume he could have a really broad range of hands -- a Q, 9, JT, flushdraw, underpair, overpair, etc.

It is reasonable to believe that if he bet out on the flop with a hand (Q or 9) that he would bet again on a 9 but he might check a Q trying to trap you in. So I would interpret his check as a Q or nothing. If it is a Q you are chopping the pot and if it is nothing then he is going to fold. For this reason I would check behind him trying to get him some help on the river or induce a bluff on the river.

On the river if he checks then obviously I make a bet of some sort of figure that looks to be a bluff. Perhaps something like 1/2 pot bet or maybe a little less -- the idea is to make a value bet that looks like a bluffing bet without commiting myself to the pot (i.e. all-in is not a good bet because obviously he could not play overtop if he wanted to try to steal).

If a very bad card comes off the deck -- something like an A/K/9 then I am certainly just going to call his bet (but will still bet the river if he checks).

I honestly think if you fire out on the turn he is almost definitely going to fold his hand ... where if you give him the free card he might catchup enough to get you paid off. Say he has one of the draws and he completes it ... he might check-call a reasonable bet.

.kw

Unknown

Thanks for all the replies. There were a lot of good suggestions--all or most of which would be considered to be solid play, IMHO.

Here's the entire hand:

PokerStars Game #437792301: Tournament #1582254, Hold'em No Limit - Level XII (1000/2000) - 2004/05/16 - 01:27:05 (ET)
Table '1582254 89' Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: ADF360 (10692 in chips)
Seat 2: Northwynd (82207 in chips)
Seat 3: Champion16 (110201 in chips)
Seat 4: TXACESUP (28305 in chips)
Seat 5: all aces (45373 in chips)
Seat 6: rambis (76192 in chips)
Seat 7: KOBIEWEL (21807 in chips)
Seat 8: Gentleben2 (12558 in chips)
Seat 9: ace14 (23061 in chips)
ADF360: posts the ante 100
Northwynd: posts the ante 100
Champion16: posts the ante 100
TXACESUP: posts the ante 100
all aces: posts the ante 100
rambis: posts the ante 100
KOBIEWEL: posts the ante 100
Gentleben2: posts the ante 100
ace14: posts the ante 100
ace14: posts small blind 1000
ADF360: posts big blind 2000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to all aces [Qc Jc]
Northwynd: calls 2000
Champion16: folds
TXACESUP: folds
all aces: calls 2000
rambis: folds
KOBIEWEL: folds
Gentleben2: folds
ace14: raises 2000 to 4000
ADF360: folds
Northwynd: calls 2000
all aces: calls 2000
*** FLOP *** [9h Qh Qs]
ace14: checks
Northwynd: bets 8000
all aces: calls 8000
ace14: folds
*** TURN *** [9h Qh Qs] [9c]
Northwynd: checks
all aces: checks
*** RIVER *** [9h Qh Qs 9c] [3h]
Northwynd: checks
Champion16 said, "i like your pic rambis"
all aces: bets 10000
Northwynd: calls 10000
*** SHOW DOWN ***
all aces: shows [Qc Jc] (a full house, Queens full of Nines)
Northwynd: mucks hand
rambis said, "thx"
all aces collected 50900 from pot
Northwynd said, "vnh"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 50900 | Rake 0
Board [9h Qh Qs 9c 3h]
Seat 1: ADF360 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: Northwynd mucked [Ah 2h] - a flush, Ace high
Seat 3: Champion16 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: TXACESUP folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: all aces showed [Qc Jc] and won (50900) with a full house, Queens full of Nines
Seat 6: rambis folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: KOBIEWEL folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Gentleben2 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: ace14 (small blind) folded on the Flop

So, needless to say, I played this hand pretty much exactly like kwplayer suggested. On the turn I took awhile to think about what my opponent might have, and how I could get any more chips from him. On a board like that, any overpair or underpair or inbetweenpair is folding to any turn bet. Any draw is folding, too. A player holding a 9 will call, but he will also call a half-decent bet on the river, too, so there's time for that.

I decided to give him a free river card. I know it's usually correct to charge people for their draws, but in this case I was sure he'd throw any drawing hand away. Luckily for me, he hit his draw. I bet a small enough amount (T10,000) to keep him solidly in the tournament if he called and lost. At the same time, I thought it was a large enough bet that it made it worthwhile, and it looked like a somewhat timid bluff.

I think I could have bet T15,000 and got a call, but no more than that. My opponent was playing a very solid game, and in truth, I don't think his call on the river was a mistake, given the way I'd played the hand, and some hands before this.

Regards,
all_aces

kwplayer

I like the way you played the hand -- I have to it was what I suggested. LOL but wanted to comment on something you said. "It is usually correct to charge people for their draws".

Fact was in this situation he didn't have a draw -- he was drawing dead. In situations where your opponent is drawing dead it is often correct to let him get there and then charge him for being lucky. I think this statement is ONLY true when a bet (no matter how small) on the turn would induce your opponent to fold.

Great check on the turn and a nice value bet on the river. Very nicely played!

.kw

Unknown

Fact was in this situation he didn't have a draw -- he was drawing dead

An important distinction. Letting a drawing player get there for free when he can still beat you is a big mistake, and one that a lot of novice NL players make.

I like the way you played the hand -- I have to it was what I suggested

Lol if this hand is indicative of a larger sample size, a game between the two of us would be boring, bizarre, and lengthy.

Great check on the turn and a nice value bet on the river. Very nicely played!

tyvm!

Regards,
all_aces

Adam**

Very well done, the check on the turn is by far and away the best play. Let them think you have nothing. And pop the river if he bets or call a bet like you laid out. Even if he didn't hit a heart the ace might have seemed big to him, as you check your tight on the turn. You cannot be afraid of a guy hitting to 4 outs(3-kickers if higher that 9, and the last 9).