You make the play #7

ScottyZScottyZ
in Online Poker
From the same tournament as the previous "You make the play":

Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150)
Seat #9 is the button
Seat 2: Intven (4550 in chips)
Seat 3: kanghigh (2810 in chips)
Seat 7: cyberscr (1305 in chips)
Seat 8: ScottyZ (2245 in chips)
Seat 9: NotMike (2590 in chips)
Intven: posts small blind 75
kanghigh: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ScottyZ [Ac Tc]
cyberscr: calls 150
ScottyZ: calls 150
NotMike: folds
Intven: calls 75
kanghigh: checks
*** FLOP *** [Qc 8h Kc]
Intven: checks
kanghigh: checks
cyberscr: bets 300
ScottyZ: calls 300
Intven: folds
kanghigh: folds
*** TURN *** [Qc 8h Kc] [2d]
cyberscr: bets 855 and is all-in

I think it's a pretty clear call on the flop, but is this a call or fold with only one more card to come?

There is $1,200 in the pot after the flop, and $2,055 after the opponent's turn bet.

ScottyZ

Comments

  • JayJay
    You have 15 outs to make your hand better, assuming that drawing a 10 isn't good because he has a pair of Q's or better. Again, you could've raised on the flop to get more information on his hand.

    I would call here because your pot odds are good. The odds of hitting your card is about 2.07 to 1 and the pot odds are about 3 to 1. Good for it.
  • kwplayerkwplayer
    A lot of this depends on your read of the player that is making the bets. He limped in and then made a good sized bet (half pot) on the flop. On the turn he pushed all-in. What kind of hand can we put him on? Is it possible he has trips or just one pair? Could he have JT and be on a draw? You need to figure out what your opponent has so you can properly figure your outs.

    I think I would consider 9 flush outs and 3 more outs to the straight. I wouldn't be optimistic enough to count an Ace has an out (since with this much strength it is reasonable to put him on two pair or better).

    If I only have 12 outs and playing this hand for almost 900 more chips is going to cripple me in the tournament, I think I am going to muck and look for a better spot to get all my money in. I find in these tournaments it is quite easy to find yourself as a reasonable favourite rather then a dog with pot odds.

    The concept is if early in a tournament ou have a situation where you are a 51:49 favourite, for all your chips it is often correct to pass up the opporutnity and wait for a spot where you are a much bigger favourite.

    For this reason, I muck my hand and wait for greener pastures.

    Having said this, if you are going to play this hand at this point in the tournament I would be much more apt to raise preflop and try to win the pot without having to make a hand. After seeing the flop I would have considered a raise attempting to get my opponent to laydown or atleast commit him to the pot and then decide what to do if he comes over the top. It appears you are playing the have very week up to this point and as a result, got yourself in a bit of situation.

    .kw
  • ScottyZScottyZ
    The odds of hitting your card is about 2.07 to 1 and the pot odds are about 3 to 1.

    Be careful. The pot odds are actually about 2.4 to 1.

    For the odds of hitting, it matters what hand the opponent has exactly.

    Let's assume he has some made hand. I'll do the dance of joy and claim I made a great read if he's only got JT. :)

    If he's got one pair, I've got 15 outs from 46 unseen cards. The drawing odds are 2.07 to 1 against. There are sufficient pot odds to draw. If his pair is below T, the odds improve to 1.6 to 1.

    If he has 2 pair, the Ace is no good, and some of the flush outs may be no good also. The worst case (he has 82) leaves 10 outs, or drawing odds of 36 to 10, or 3.6 to 1. That makes a big difference, no?

    If he has a set, the outs are actually identical to the worst case two pair again giving insufficient 3.6 to 1 drawing odds.
    If I only have 12 outs and playing this hand for almost 900 more chips is going to cripple me in the tournament, I think I am going to muck and look for a better spot to get all my money in. I find in these tournaments it is quite easy to find yourself as a reasonable favourite rather then a dog with pot odds.

    This is a good point, because this is a good example of the pot odds being pretty close to correct depending on the opponent's exact cards, but calling not necessarily being the correct play even so.
    It appears you are playing the have very week up to this point and as a result, got yourself in a bit of situation.

    I knew you wouldn't like the way I played either of these hands. Frankly, I don't like the way I played them either. This is probably one of the reasons I posted them here. Thanks for your comments kwplayer and everyone.

    BTW, at least remain consistent in playing like crap, I called and spiked a club. This is exactly the kind of stupid play that would irritate me like crazy if I was on the other side of it. ;)

    ScottyZ
  • kwplayerkwplayer
    Just for completeness sake, what did your opponent have?
  • ScottyZScottyZ
    kwplayer wrote:
    Just for completeness sake, what did your opponent have?

    Oh yeah. Two pair, K8 (possibly suited, I can't remember).

    ScottyZ
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