Help with this bubble hand

vinsanity

Hey Dave, I'd appreciate your advice on this hand when you get a chance.


***** Hand History for Game 599883463 *****
200/400 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament 3698577) - Sat May 15 06:14:14 EDT 2004
Table Table 13785 (Real Money) -- Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: grkneek (4630)
Seat 3: EOA4Life (1070)
Seat 4: Smokedat (875)
Seat 9: FrankieWings (1425)
EOA4Life posts small blind (100)
Smokedat posts big blind (200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to EOA4Life [ 4d, 4s ]
FrankieWings folds.
grkneek raises (400) to 400
EOA4Life raises (970) to 1070
EOA4Life is all-In.
Smokedat folds.
grkneek calls (670)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 5h, 8s, 8d ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Qs ]
** Dealing River ** : [ As ]
Creating Main Pot with $2340 with EOA4Life
** Summary **
Main Pot: 2340 |
Board: [ 5h 8s 8d Qs As ]
grkneek balance 5900, bet 1070, collected 2340, net +1270 [ 3h Ad ] [ two pairs, aces and eights -- Ad,As,Qs,8s,8d ]
EOA4Life balance 0, lost 1070 [ 4d 4s ] [ two pairs, eights and fours -- As,8s,8d,4d,4s ]
Smokedat balance 675, lost 200 (folded)
FrankieWings balance 1425, didn't bet (folded)


The chipleader had been stealing quite a bit so I was confident I was a slight favorite. I knew I couldn't put him off his hand no matter how bad since a few hands earlier I reraised all in with JJ and he called with J6o. I was looking for a call and double up to have a shot at winning. But if I folded, I probably limp into 3rd. How would you play this hand in this situation? Thanks.

Dave Scharf

I muck my 4-4 in this spot.

As you say, you KNOW that he will not fold. That means you KNOW that you are either going to have a VERY small edge or you are going to be a VERY big dog (if he has a pair over 4's). As it turns out you had your dream come true when he shows you a hand that features at least one trey or deuce. There aren't many hands like that though.

Given then you KNOW he will call you are much better off with a hand like A-x or a pair of 8's since you have a MUCH better chance of being a significant favourite.

I might call if I am the only short stack but you were not. Three of you were all short.

Jay

I probably would've folded as well, especially to a raise from a player who seems a little unpredictable with the hands he chooses to play. Since he has a big stack, he would most likely call your all-in which he did. Also, you're too close to the money to risk it all on a possible coin flip. It's unforunate that he hit one of his 10 outs to beat you though.

Dave Scharf

It's unforunate that he hit one of his 10 outs to beat you though.

This does show one of the weaknesses of small pair.

4-4 v A-3

A-3 has three outs pre flop (any ace)

Flop: 5h, 8s, 8d

Now the A-3 has six outs (any five, any ace)

Turn: Qs

Now the A-3 has nine outs (five, queen, ace)

HellmuthFan

Unfortunate man. As I said in my Low to Middle pocket pairs thread, low pocket pairs make the hand look stronger then they are. You almost would have had to make your set to win.

I don't think I would have gone all in here. With the short stack I would have waited for another chance to put all my chips in. However you were on the short stack and a better chance may not have presented itself. Anyway, curse the low pocket pairs!!

Dave Scharf

You almost would have had to make your set to win.

Uh... no...

All Vinsanity needed to win was to have his opponent miss. The power of small pair is hitting a set in a big multi-way pot OR in winning unimproved in a heads up confrontation. There are MANY occasions in which you will play small pocket pair heads up for ALL your chips.

ScottyZ

There are MANY occasions in which you will play small pocket pair heads up for ALL your chips.

But to be clear (and re-iterate Dave's point from above, which I agree with), this shouldn't have been one of those times.

Unfortunate man.

To the contrary, he was extremely *fortunate* that his opponent had a 2 or 3 specifically when the money went in.

ScottyZ

Jay

Dave Scharf wrote:

It's unforunate that he hit one of his 10 outs to beat you though.

This does show one of the weaknesses of small pair.

4-4 v A-3

A-3 has three outs pre flop (any ace)

Flop: 5h, 8s, 8d

Now the A-3 has six outs (any five, any ace)

Turn: Qs

Now the A-3 has nine outs (five, queen, ace)

Whoops, that's what I meant. I counted his ace in the hole. :oops:

HellmuthFan

ScottyZ...I meant unfortune that he hit the river :roll:

ScottyZ

ScottyZ...I meant unfortune that he hit the river

I know.

I like to think about what's going on when most of (or all) the money goes in. It's actually a dream come true that the opponent's hole cards made the 44 better than a coin flip when the chips went in.

ScottyZ

HellmuthFan

Hehe

Yes, I know what you mean. I don't think I could call with A-3.

ScottyZ

Well, I think I'd still end up calling the re-raise if I has the A3. It's only $670 more into a pot of $1,670. I think it's likely enough that A3 is the best hand to justify that call. (Although, *if* the A3 happens to be behind, it is typically in trouble.)

ScottyZ

vinsanity

Yes, I know what you mean. I don't think I could call with A-3.

I fully expected him to call, he was not type of player to lay it down and like Scotty said it wasn't that bad a call being the chip leader. I fully expected 2 overcards and was lucky he did have a 3.

I made the bet knowing it would be a coin flip. My thinking was that if I win, I'm guranteed in the money with a very good shot at winning (The chip leader was a weak player). Even if I muck my hand, with the blinds that big and all 3 of the shortstacks relatively even, it'd be a coin flip to see which one of us got lucky first. I had enough for 10 hands or so, I figured 44 was as good a hand as I would get to gamble with.