WSOP odds

SirBry

Here's a fun list I got from my online book. Of course this is for educational purposes only

...could'nt find Dave

IMO, in a massive field of up to 2000, only God knows who will win this puppy. I took some flyer/massive payouts with Brunson(190-1), Amarillo Slim(235-1) and Gabe Kaplan(650-1)...and made a half-serious/dartboard pick of Paul Phillips(70-1). I wish there was a line on Todd Brunson as he seems to be doing ok this year. Lederer doesn't pay squat(15-1). BTW, wtf is with Affleck even on the list...gag.

22-May POKER WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP
# To Win the Tournament Odds
1 PHIL IVEY +1200
2 HOWARD LEDERER +1500
3 SCOTTY NGUYEN +1600
4 PHIL HELLMUTH +2000
5 GUS HANSEN +1800
6 ERICK LINDGREN +2000
7 DUTCH BOYD +2200
8 DAN HARRINGTON +2000
9 JOHNNY CHAN +2000
10 BARRY GREENSTEIN +2200
11 CHRIS FERGUSON +2200
12 DANIEL NEGREANU +2200
13 ERIK SEIDEL +2500
14 SAMMY FARHA +2200
15 CHRIS MONEYMAKER +3000
16 LAYNE FLACK +3000
17 ANTONIO ESFANDIARI +3000
18 PHIL GORDON +3500
19 ANNIE DUKE +4000
20 JENNIFER HARMAN +4000
21 MEN NGUYEN +4500
22 AMIR VAHEDI +5000
23 HOYT CORKINS +5000
24 CHIP JETT +3000
25 ANDY GLAZER +6000
26 BARRY SHULMAN +6000
27 T.J. CLOUTIER +5000
28 NOEL FURLONG +6000
29 JASON LESTER +6000
30 BARNY BOATMAN +6000
31 DAVID ULLIOTT +6000
32 KATHY LIEBERT +8000
33 JOHN JUANDA +7000
34 JOSE ROSENKRANTZ +7000
35 PAUL PHILLIPS +7000
36 TOM MCEVOY +8000
37 PAUL DARDEN +9000
38 THOR HANSEN +9000
39 CARLOS MORTENSEN +9000
40 JEFF SHULMAN +9000
41 DOYLE BRUNSON +19000
42 ROBERT VARKONYI +10000
43 TONY G. +15000
44 HUMBERTO BRENES +9500
45 HUCK SEED +10000
46 MIMI TRAN +10000
47 AMARILLO SLIM +23500
48 ALAN GOEHRING +10000
49 GABE KAPLAN +65000
50 BEN AFFLECK +60000
51 FIELD (ALL OTHERS) -125

ScottyZ

To be honest, I think betting the rest of the field for -125 is the bet I would make myself.

ScottyZ

SirBry

I agree ScottyZ, but a -125 is even crappy IMO....this is a lottery ticket wager...one to sprinkle around some tiny bets for the payoff, not to bet for serious value.

ScottyZ

The probable unpopularity of that bet is one of the main reasons the main reasons I'd take it.

Plus it's a way to indirectly bet on Dave. 8)

ScottyZ

Anonymous

probably another no name will win this year

SirBry

ScottyZ wrote:

...probable unpopularity...

Man, you are such a LedererNerd

ScottyZ

Hehe, I'm just trying to take the fun out of everything as usual.

Man, you are such a LedererNerd

Hmmmm... I think I'll take that as a compliment actually. 8)

ScottyZ

Systine

My bet is on Ben Affleck!!!!!!!!! +60000, getty up!

Poor Gabe...

ScottyZ

Ben's moneyline of +60,000 translates into 600:1 odds of winning the tournament, correct?

Is so, does anyone notice anything strange about this?

ScottyZ

SirBry

What are you thinking ScottyZ?

...other than BrysHouseOfEducationalOnlyOdds would probably put his line at somewhere around a billion to 1.

When I was talking to J-Lo, she said he couldn't perform under pressure.

Unknown

The fact that you mention Ben Affleck and 'winning the tournament' in the same sentence?



Regards,
all_aces

ps: I don't think Dutch Boyd should be so close to the top of that list.

ScottyZ

What are you thinking ScottyZ?

Say there are 2,000 entrants.

What are the odds of an *average* player winning the tournament? (Meaning an average player among the entrants, of course.)

Can you imagine if he actually won the tournament? Everyone who bet "rest of field" would be *pissed*.

ScottyZ

SirBry

Ahhh, ScottyZ, I just came out of a grinder 5/10 session at Stars...I'm tired...can't think. Explain. Pegging the trend line at the 1000th player, I'd expect to see a significantly higher probability swing on the +trend players....maybe 2-3x that of those below the line.

Something like

8+
6+
4+
2+
0
1-
2-
3-
4-

[edit]
Actually I don't even like those numbers...almost want to square them.

ScottyZ

[Technically, I'm using odds as meaing "odds against" here, but that's the usual convention for talking about betting odds anyway.]

Okay, the true odds of winning going to be around 2,000 to 1 for the average player. Why?

If all people are equally skilled, then they would each have 2,000 to 1 odds of winning.

So when players of various skills get together what you might call the "average" player has true odds of 2,000 to 1 to win the tournament.

Ben's bet line odds being 600 to 1 imply that he is significantly more of a favorite to win over the average player (among those players entering the tournament).

What da?!

True that I haven't taken the house vig into account, but you should still (theoretically) get something a little below 2,000 to 1 after the vig. The reality is that no bookmaker is likely be willing to offer huge overlays (even those which might be theoretically justified) on massive underdogs. Everyone might be willing to conceed that the true odds of Ben winning are more in the range of 100,000 to 1, or even 1,000,000. For all I know, he's maybe even a decent player, and that should be more in the ballpark of 5,000 or 10,000 to 1. 8) However, I doubt you're going to going to be able to find someone to take the "against" side of anything with odds anywhere near those.

Does this teach us something about betting on ultra-longhsots? I think it does. You're going to get fooled because even though you may receive a very big payout, it probably wasn't anywhere near the true odds you must overcome to win (even after taking the house vig into account).

ScottyZ

Tilter

You never know, Ben could possibly do well in this tourney. I know he has hired Annie Duke to teach him, so maybe she'll teach him as well as Howard taught her.

ConfusedONE

Tilter wrote:

You never know, Ben could possibly do well in this tourney. I know he has hired Annie Duke to teach him, so maybe she'll teach him as well as Howard taught her.

but still BEN AFFLECK +60000

gots ta go with SCOTTY NGUYEN +1600 :shock:

hmmm maybe him too T.J. CLOUTIER +5000 :shock: :shock:

SirBry

The odds have changed quite a bit when looking around the web. Seems the large field is raising the poyouts of the 'top players'...

ConfusedONE

where to get the odds? :shock: i cant find it

Flush

Odds at Intertops.com as of May 17th, 8:00pm

World Series of Poker 2004 Winner
Closing Date: May 22, 2004 13:59 GMT -5
From the Binion's Horseshoe Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada - May 22 through May 28 2004
Odds on other players upon request.
Option Win Odds
Gus Hansen +4000
Phil Hellmuth +4000
Phil Ivey +4000
Dave "Devilfish" Ulliot +5000
Johnny Chan +5000
Layne Flack +5000
Chris "Jesus" Ferguson +6000
Erik Seidel +6000
Howard "The Professor" Lederer +6000
Joe "The Elegance" Beevers +6000
Men "The Master" Nguyen +6000
Phil Gordon +6000
Sammy Farha +6000
Scotty Nguyen +6000
T J Cloutier +6000
Ram Vaswani +6600
Annie Duke +8000
Barny Boatman +8000
Barry Greenstein +8000
Dan Harrington +8000
Daniel Negreanu +8000
Erick Lindgren +8000
Ivo Donev +8000
Jennifer Harman +8000
Martin De Knijff +8000
Ross Boatman +8000
Ted Forrest +8000
Allen Cunningham +10000
Bruno Fitoussi +10000
Chip Jett +10000
Chris Bigler +10000
Chris Moneymaker +10000
Christer Johansson +10000
Dave Colclough +10000
Doyle Brunson +10000
Dutch Boyd +10000
Huck Seed +10000
Jesse Jones +10000
John Luanda +10000
Noel Furlong +10000
Roy "The Boy" Brindley +10000
Tony G +10000
Antonio Esfandiari +12500
Bruce Atkinson +12500
Donnacha O'Dea +12500
Robert Varkonyi +12500
Simon "Aces" Trumper +12500
Surindar Sunar +12500
Thor Hansen +12500
Tony Bloom +12500
"Mad" Marty Wilson +15000
Amarillo Slim Preston +15000
Jan Lundberg +15000
Julian Gardner +15000
Ken Lennaard +15000
Mike Magee +15000
Peter Costa +15000
Mike Candela +30000
Roger Connely +30000
Ben Affleck +75000