Seeking opinions on this hand
Playing a $10 2-table Sit 'n Go on Party Poker. Got off to a good start and had the early cheap lead at my table with about 1800 chips (started with 1000), only about a dozen hands in. 8 players left at the table. Blinds are 10/20. My table image is strong/aggressive because I'd taken down two relatively big pots early. After that I was able to steal a pot with a raise despite only having second highest pair. I believe I have the table's respect.
I'm one away from the button and am dealt 4-5 spades.
UTG (p1) limps. Player acting before me (p2) limps. I do the same. SB limps and BB checks. All others folded.
Flop comes 5h 9c 5d
I obviously like this flop but am very worried about my kicker.
SB checks
BB bets $75.
I'd noticed BB had been betting on every flop he'd been in, whether he hits or not. Because of this, I don't put him on the 5 nor the 9. I'm thinking he has A-x
P1 folds
P2 calls $75
I raise to $150
P2 worries me more than BB. He'd just won a hand, winning a small pot. Other than that, he's folded before the showdown every time. He'd only played a couple of hands. Because of that, however, I'm worried about him having an A-5 and slow-playing me. But considering his relatively tight play early on, he didn't seem like the type to play A-5 from middle position. I decide to see how both players react to a raise to get a better handle on the cards they hold. If I had to guess at this point, I would've put P2 on A-9.
SB folds
BB calls $75
P2 calls $75
Turn comes Qc
BB checks
P2 checks
The Queen on the turn doesn't bother me. I'm convinced BB knows he's beat and will fold. Still wondering about P2. If indeed he had A-9 wouldn't he be betting on the turn to a) gauge whether I had the 5 or b) see if he can chase me off on the off-chance I'm trying to buy the pot? I begin to worry about him having pocket 9s.
I bet $90
BB folds
P2 calls
Now I more seriously wonder if he's slow-playing the 9s considering he only called. At the same time I wonder if I'm overvaluing his play seeing as how we're only a few hands in. Maybe he's just not nearly as good of a player as I thought.
River comes Qh
Any chance he has a Q? I don't think so because he would basically have to have Q-9 or Q-5 to reasonably justify getting this far in the hand. I strongly doubt he would've played either hand initially.
P2 checks
Now I highly doubt he has A-9 since I definitely think he would've come out betting if he had it. The possibility of Pocket 9s still bother me, though I think he would've bet with the full house, considering I'd been leading the betting throughout the hand. If I was him, I would've assumed I would call an all-in because of that and why risk me checking instead of betting again?
Donkeycore bets $85
This was likely my mistake. I'm still hoping to get rid of him by betting but. obviously. betting such a small amount only shows weakness. That weakness cleary stems from my fear of him having 9s
P2 goes all-in $665
Does he have the 9s? Does he sense my weakness and hope to front the 9s or a Q? What would you do in this situation? All advice is welcome and much appreciated. I'll post what happened tomorrow. Feel free to critique my play at every juncture.
I'm one away from the button and am dealt 4-5 spades.
UTG (p1) limps. Player acting before me (p2) limps. I do the same. SB limps and BB checks. All others folded.
Flop comes 5h 9c 5d
I obviously like this flop but am very worried about my kicker.
SB checks
BB bets $75.
I'd noticed BB had been betting on every flop he'd been in, whether he hits or not. Because of this, I don't put him on the 5 nor the 9. I'm thinking he has A-x
P1 folds
P2 calls $75
I raise to $150
P2 worries me more than BB. He'd just won a hand, winning a small pot. Other than that, he's folded before the showdown every time. He'd only played a couple of hands. Because of that, however, I'm worried about him having an A-5 and slow-playing me. But considering his relatively tight play early on, he didn't seem like the type to play A-5 from middle position. I decide to see how both players react to a raise to get a better handle on the cards they hold. If I had to guess at this point, I would've put P2 on A-9.
SB folds
BB calls $75
P2 calls $75
Turn comes Qc
BB checks
P2 checks
The Queen on the turn doesn't bother me. I'm convinced BB knows he's beat and will fold. Still wondering about P2. If indeed he had A-9 wouldn't he be betting on the turn to a) gauge whether I had the 5 or b) see if he can chase me off on the off-chance I'm trying to buy the pot? I begin to worry about him having pocket 9s.
I bet $90
BB folds
P2 calls
Now I more seriously wonder if he's slow-playing the 9s considering he only called. At the same time I wonder if I'm overvaluing his play seeing as how we're only a few hands in. Maybe he's just not nearly as good of a player as I thought.
River comes Qh
Any chance he has a Q? I don't think so because he would basically have to have Q-9 or Q-5 to reasonably justify getting this far in the hand. I strongly doubt he would've played either hand initially.
P2 checks
Now I highly doubt he has A-9 since I definitely think he would've come out betting if he had it. The possibility of Pocket 9s still bother me, though I think he would've bet with the full house, considering I'd been leading the betting throughout the hand. If I was him, I would've assumed I would call an all-in because of that and why risk me checking instead of betting again?
Donkeycore bets $85
This was likely my mistake. I'm still hoping to get rid of him by betting but. obviously. betting such a small amount only shows weakness. That weakness cleary stems from my fear of him having 9s
P2 goes all-in $665
Does he have the 9s? Does he sense my weakness and hope to front the 9s or a Q? What would you do in this situation? All advice is welcome and much appreciated. I'll post what happened tomorrow. Feel free to critique my play at every juncture.
Comments
Your min re-raise was a mistake. Unlikely anyone would fold if they are already in. Raise to 250-300. If they stay in, they've got something worth playing. Even then, probably a worse hand than yours.
Your turn bet was too small. You likely have the best hand and need to milk as much as you can out of the ones who are chasing. Also helps to determine how strong his hand is.
The second queen is bad news but not too likely that he called the flop with just a Q. Possibly Q9 but would he have played this in the first place? Maybe Q9s? Would he have limped in with QQ? Not likely. KQ, AQ, QJ? maybe...
If he does have a monster, his river bet was a huge mistake. You were playing pretty weak so I doubt he's expecting a call. (Unless you previous play indicated you'd call big bets with marginal hands.) My conclusion is he's bluffing. Or playing at the 3rd level which is unlikely at a $10 sng.
Call and take down another monster pot or learn a lesson. You got lots of chips.
Let me know what happened.
I do not have close to the ability of most of the posters in this forum, I consider myself to still be a beginner and I am still learning myself...but had I played the hand the same as you up to this point (and I don't think it was bad play until this!!! perhaps you should have bet stronger post flop and taken the pot right then and there?) I would have checked the river, if he slow played you he screwed up and gave you an out on the river, in my opinion he should have bet out....if you believe he is slow playing or you think you are beat why bet out, any call at this point is likely with a better hand, you have not committed much to the pot at this point, check the river and be done with it? Now he's put you in a spot and I would have folded? One final comment....if you were still hoping to 'get rid of him' by betting out $85 is not likely going to do it with the pot the size it was.
What was the outcome?
Alan
Two options on the river either bet the pot, or check thinking that he will only call or raise if I he has me tied or beat and will fold if he doesn't.
As for the re-raise all in you got yourself in a sticky situation, but I think you have to call at this point.
Haha there is also alwaysthe chance that his 8 yr old son took over the mouse and went all in with nothing.
I hope you won the hand! Looking forward to finding out!
Joe :fish:
Looking back on a hand it is very difficult to make accurate predictions of what you would do in that hand, it is different every hand and unless you are the one who played the hand I think it is very easy to in hindsight come to conclusions on on what the right plays are.
I think that due to my aggressive style of play I would have the hand stronger I think that is the right play but then again, you might have cut your losses by not playing it aggressively and folding on the river.
Joe :fish:
Umm.. You are just over one orbit into the tournament, I doubt anyone has you in any real boxes yet... And actually, if you've moved from 1000 to 1800 in 12 hands, they probably have you pegged as a loose-crazy..
I wonder if you aren't being too agressive early? Bluffing 2nd pair when the pots are small seems like a extraneous risk of chips..
Another example of 'don't bet if you can't stand to be raised'.. This is a text book case...
Anyway, call*. Your image is loose and agressive. He probably thinks his pocket pair is good.
*Edit: I missed the running pair board.. Tough decision and one you should never have been in the situation to make..
Limping in pre-flop is certainly fine.
On the flop, I don't like the minimum raise. If you have decided to not slowplay the hand (which is fine), you need to make a more substantial raise here. Just calling as a slowplay is a reasonable option too. Raising the minumum is in an unhappy no man's land between the two options. You have both let the cat out of the bag to your opponents that you have a hand, and have faced them with such a tiny bet that they can still chase the thinnest of draws against you.
The flop is where I would probably be done with this hand (I don't mean I'm folding it) one way or another. Either my opponents are going to believe I have the trips or not, and in a Party $10 SNG, the opponents who do not believe I have something are infinitely more likely to play along with me when there are 2 cards to come rather than 1 or 0. Most of the time, I'd make a big raise here, possibly even all-in.
My opponent having a monster like 99 or 5x is not a concern to me. I will go broke against such a holding here, end of story. Time for the next SNG or sandwich or whatever.
Making some kind of bet on the turn is a good idea. As on the flop, I think this bet was too small. I would have made it something like $300 or $400 to go.
Betting the river after it is checked to you in last position is quite bad I think. One of the main components of a value bet is there being a decent chance of getting called be a worse hand. When the board ends up 559QQ, there aren't going to be a lot of hands that lose to Fives full of Queens that can call you on the end. You might be tempted to think you'll get a loose call from two pair Queens over Nines or maybe even a bare Ace, but this I think is really streching the idea of a value bet beyond its limits.
Betting on the end to "get rid of [your opponent]" frankly makes no sense. Your opponent will easily call $85 on the river with Fives full of Queens or better, and these are the only hands that you might wish to get rid of.
Generally, re-opening the action to your opponent is costly. In this particuar example, you've given the opponent the chance to either
1. Make a big check-raise with Queens full (or possibly Nines full) for value. (A value bet that would make a lot of sense in this spot.)
or
2. Make a big check-raise as a kind of semi-bluff with Fives full, thinking he might win the whole pot by betting and split the pot if called.
or
3. Make a big check-raise bluff with no hand at all.
The real reason that choosing to bet the river is so dicey is that you are not going to have a good idea of how to handle a big check-raise. Which of these three things is he doing?
On the balance, I think I'd have to make a tough fold to the river check-raise. It seems like splitting the pot is about the best you could hope for here. I personally wouldn't give my opponent credit for being able to make a big-time stone cold bluff check-raise on the river, particularly since he has been playing like a rock up to this point.
Read him as the rock he has been playing like so far and kick it in.
ScottyZ
Wader
(Yes, I jest!
Just a few clarifications. I definitely wasn't playing loose-crazy. I should have mentioned that I'd gotten lucky and had been dealt quality hands to begin with. I'd won a hand with A-Ks and with QQ. I snagged two pair with A-K and my Queens held up on the other hand. In both cases somebody else made it to the showdown, so the other players saw what I was holding, which is why I don't think they'd peg me as a loose-crazy.
The hand I won with second highest pair I was playing from the big blind and checked my K-10o. This was the hand immediately after I had won with QQ. The flop came A-10-rag. I put in a 3XBB bet against two other limpers. They both folded. Do you still believe this to be bad protocol, BBC-Z? I figure after taking down a big hand, it's decent strategy to bet post-flop against a couple limpers, hit or miss. You think differently?
Pkrfce9,
Your line of thinking about me holding one of the best possible hands considering what was on the board was basically my thought when I decided to call.
Anyway, he had A-9s, so I won the hand, bankrupting him and taking a huge lead. I rode that lead to first place, winning $80. Despite that, this hand still really bothered me so I'm glad to have gotten all this feedback. So what do you think he was thinking? Did he really think his A-9 beat whatever I had? Or was he trying to front the Qs or another pocket pair?
Personally, I think he was trying to front a Q-x but I suppose I'll never know for sure.
He's thinking one of 3 things:
1/ He has the best hand. With 2 pair on the board, you could be betting weakly with an Ace kicker (or worse!) thinking to take it down. He has a better 2 pair plus a great kicker! The all-in in this case was a mistake on his part, unless he thought you would call. Not sure how many would call with a naked ace here.
2/ You have a better hand but not a great hand. This is the case here. By making you think he has one of the 3 or 4 possible better hands, he can scare you out. And it nearly worked!
3/ You are bluffing. You played the hand pretty weakly. Maybe he figures he's calling your bluff and forcing you to backdown.
(1) I think that calling (not raising more) on the flop is OK. In fact, it's probably what I would have done. There are lots of betting patterns on the turn that will "tell" you if one of your opponents has a bigger five. With this flop SOMEONE is a huge dog. It's not clear who it is. Probably the other guy, but it might be you. In cases where someone is a huge dog, and you have position, calling is not a bad play.
(2) I check the river. I am pretty sure that my had is good, but I do not walk into a legitimate check-raise. Nor do I want to open the door to my opponent to bluff check raise. I have lots of chips. I have won lots of chips in this pot. I am happy to take down what is there since a bet is dangerous.
(3) Your opponent is not thinking. Or, he is thinking "I can bluff. He will fold. Please God, let him fold. Pllleeeeaaaasssseee fold."