Hand for discussion #2

Dave ScharfDave Scharf
in General Poker Chat
And another one from the weekend that has me thinking.

There are 25 people left in a 250 player MTT online tournament.

You have $40,000. Average is $20,000.

Blinds are $100-2000. It is folded to the cutoff seat with an average stack. He raises to $6,000. Button and small blind fold.

You have A-Ks. What do you do?

Comments

  • ScottyZScottyZ
    I think this is a pretty close decision between moving all-in, and "Dave's favorite play", also known as Hunting a Stop & Go in the Dark.

    With this much hand and the opponent's stack not very deep, both folding and calling and looking at the flop seem inferior to me.

    Time to brainstorm.

    Pros & Cons

    Moving all-in Pros

    -The classic property of AKs. That is, you are generally a small dog or medium favorite with this hand.

    -You generally not going to be such a big favorite that you want to induce action with this hand.

    -You may set up a "don't steal my blind" image in your opponents' minds. If you move all-in and fold (and do not show your cards), your opponents may interpret you as being capable of a big re-steal. Your stealing (if he is in fact stealing) opponent in particular will be most affected by this table image.

    -The dominating Ace factor. Some opponents would call you with any Ace here.

    Moving all-in Cons

    -The classic "only get called by a better hand" idea. (I.e. a pocket pair1) This idea is somewhat dampened by the fact that your opponent, being relatively short-stacked, might call you with a lot of other hands too. This leads to...

    -High variance. Again, your opponent might call you with a lot of hands. You are generally not going to be in big trouble if he calls, but not a big favorite either.



    Stop & Go Pros

    -The classic "you win of you both miss" result. This of course includes the extra chance to win if your opponent will fold 77 on a flop of Q93.

    -Lower variance. You risk the same number of chips in total, but there are some hands your opponent will call with pre-flop that they would have folded on the flop. In Davespeak, you have added fold equity to the hand.

    Stop & Go Cons

    -The classic (but a little different than above) "you'll only get called when you're beat" idea. Your opponent may be on a pure steal with complete rags which he would have folded pre-flop, and then catch a piece of the flop. You might call this reverse fold equity.

    -Your opponent may be able to easily get away from flops containing an Ace or King. If your opponent actually has a real hand (e.g. QQ) and is capable of folding that hand on these flops, this is about the worst way to play an AK. All of this of course is a rare setup.


    Hmmm... you'd probably find most of this analysis pretty elementary.

    Final answer: I think I'd just move all-in and quote Amir Vahedi or something like that. :cool:

    I still think it's a really close decision between the two. (You have a great chance to mix up your play due to this IMO.) What really tips the scales for me is:

    -The dominating Ace factor. Some opponents would call you with any Ace here.

    ScottyZ

    1Hope this isn't over-explaining, but I just re-read my own post and I was like "What was I smoking!?" so I added that. I didn't even know what I originally meant.
  • MickeyHoldemMickeyHoldem
    With out a read on the cut-off, I go ahead and push it in here... do I want a call here.... not really.... will I be upset if I get one.... not really.... I likely get a coin flip for enough chips to get me to the final table, or I get a 3-1 fav. for the same. (or I might be a huge dog to go back to avg.... but the cut-offs range of hands is too great to be wooried about that)
  • PsiPsi
    He has AJo and calls your push all in.
    Rivers the J to take down the hand.
    You get frustrated about how you played it perfectly only to lose to a hand which is a huge dog.

    That player ends up winning the tourney after barely surviving vs you.

    ...

    Oh wait ...
    This only happens to me :'(
  • waderwader
    I'd like to know how much raiser has? Has this been the standard raise? I might just call in hopes to win a medium pot instead of putting all my chips at risk. Your in the BB and your opponent knows that you can see a flop for only 4000 with a marginal hand, what he doesn't know is that you have a monster hand if you just call he still doesn't know that you have a monster hand. The problem is position when the flop misses you, you check and he bets his 99 etc. and you probablly have to fold. But when the flop hits you and you check and he bets you may be able to make some moola. If he does have a big A and you both flop one your going to make money, if he has a pocket pair and you flop your A or K your going to make some money on a check raise. If you miss the flop it was cheap enough, you might get to see the turn, and your GLAD you did'nt push.

    Wader
  • ScottyZScottyZ
    I'd like to know how much raiser has?
    Average is $20,000.
    It is folded to the cutoff seat with an average stack.
    ;)
    ScottyZ
  • waderwader
    Thanks Scotty missed that. I still do the same.
  • literationliteration
    With 20k and a 3xbb raise = 6k he wants action.  Have to put him on a big pair.

    You have a slight chance of fold equity, small chance he's stealing in the cutoff.  You have draws to bail you out.  You might have overcards (QJs) or a better A.  These along with you already being in the top 10% and a 1st place kind of guy, PUSH.  You swing up to 60k or near average at 20k.  Just like the Jays back in the early 90's when they'd win that 3rd game and go 2/3 in the series - swing game.  (I couldn't resist, btw who is playing for the Jays these days?)

    You're in the BB so you can't fold in this scenario.  Call if you're skeered. ;)


    EDIT:  I write this even recalling you wrote you'll win a small one or lose a big one.  I should have asked have you been lucky in the MTT yet?
    Even if you're a dog here, it's time.
  • Dave ScharfDave Scharf
    I broke one of my cardinal rules in this hand. In my next article at PokerFan.com I give my "five finger checklist" which I have, I think, talked about here. In any event, the first question I ask myself is: "Do I want to play a big pot, yes or no?"

    In this case the answer should have been: "No."

    I am a BIG stack. The cutoff seat was average which would have made a huge dent in my stack if I lost. I have A-K which is a great hand, but not one that I want to play a big pot with if I can avoid it. And, I am out of position. So, I should have said to myself "AAALLLLLLAAAARRRMMMM. Do not play a big pot. Manipulate the betting so that you will win or lose a small pot."

    Raising pre-flop makes it a big pot IF HE CALLS. It is a good place for a re-steal, but the consequences of loss were too great. I think that calling would have been OK. Then, reassess on the flop. If I hit one of my cards, I go for the checkraise. If not, bet out $5000 and prepare to fold to a raise.

    Or... fold. I am not sure that this isn't the right play in this spot. I have a BIG stack. We are into the money. The opportunities to pick up a lot of small pots will be plentiful. There will come a time that massive confrontation is neccesary, but I am not sure that the time has arrived.

    I am still not comfortable with my understanding of stack management. But, this might be a place where simply folding is not a bad play. Avoid the coinflips. This decision will, however, depend entirely on how you think that THIS player will play in THIS situtaion.

    I re-raised, he moved in a pittance, and I lost to his 8-8.
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