hi there

tompastompas
in General Poker Chat
first of all let me start by saying hello to all the forum members i;m new in the forum so go easy on me ok
I saw the craziest thing ever last night in an MTT on PokerStars.

Four Players called all-in. Hole cards:

AA
KK
QQ
JJ

I also had a pair (which I folded), 55.
Board ends up with an A, K, and 5. There would have been three sets had I been in to go along with the four top pocket pairs. I've never seen anything like it. Anyone care to calculate the odds for it?

Comments

  • pkrfce9pkrfce9
    Welcome!

    Rest assured, the odds are so astronomical that you will never see it again in your life. Unless you are on pokerstars. That site is rigged.
  • RAM_EhRAM_Eh
    pkrfce9 wrote:
    Welcome!

    Rest assured, the odds are so astronomical that you will never see it again in your life. Unless you are on pokerstars. That site is rigged.


    You will see it at least 3 or 4 more times
  • UglyJimStudlyUglyJimStudly
    Biggest 2/4 limit pot I've ever seen was contested among 4 players, three of whom had QQ (in middle position), KK (me, in the small blind), and AA (in the big blind). The fourth player was in late position. Capped preflop, raggy board (something like 972 rainbow), capped postflop with the BB running out of chips and going all in. I was pretty sure he had me beat with AA, but figured I'd see if I could build a decent side pot. Turn was a 3, and the late player came alive; he was kinda crazy and tended to bet any pair, so I figured him for something along the lines of A3. River was a 5. Middle player made the last raise and turned over his ladies, late player shows... 35 offsuit, runner runner two pair. I muck my cowboys, BB shows his aces in disgust, and everybody at the table watches the winner stack chips from his 40ish BB pot for the next five minutes. Yes, this was live - poker's rigged everywhere, clearly.
  • ScottyZScottyZ
    Anyone care to calculate the odds for it?

    Love to. The odds are 1:0 for, since this an event which has occurred.

    Unless you happened to have initiated a statistical experiment before the hand occurred which was monitoring for the outcome of a flop with two flopped sets and a folded hand also flopping a set, computing the probability/odds of this event is a meaningless exercise.

    Observer bias will naturally lead to reports of a lot of strange looking outcomes which are a priori improbable but ex post certainties. This seems to be yet another ex post certainty.

    Hey, a new initialism! YAEPC ;)
    Rest assured, the odds are so astronomical that you will never see it again in your life.

    Mais non. I also have a YAEPC I'd like to share.

    I once saw a flop come down K64 and flop 3 sets for 3 active players. Unfortunately for me, I had the 66 and the KK thought that limping in behind 3 other limpers was a cute play.

    I suppose that by some of the "logic" in this thread, this proves that Brantford is rigged. ;)

    ScottyZ
  • literationliteration
    UglyJimStudly wrote:
    Biggest 2/4 limit pot I've ever seen was contested among 4 players, three of whom had QQ (in middle position), KK (me, in the small blind), and AA (in the big blind).

    How many Queens?
  • BCC55BCC55
    something similar happend at Brantford, 10/20. 3 players with pocket pairs... Here's how it went down.

    Someone in early pos. raises to 20 folds to me i have AA so i raise and the BB Caps it.
    Flop comes K-4-9. Early pos. bets. I raise. BB re-raise. Early Pos Caps.
    Turn comes a 2. Not sure of the suits but there is no Flush draw.
    Early bets. I raise, I'm now all in. BB re-raises and Early caps it.
    River a is a 4. Early and BB go to the max and early reveals...
    POCKET 4's! :D
    BB had pocket cowboys.

    And all i had is this bad story to tell. :rage:
  • Flint BonesFlint Bones
    I guess this means it happens all the time.

    NL Tournament (Live ay my house)
    6 Players left.
    EP Raises with KK
    Fold
    MP Calls QQ
    Fold
    SB Calls AA
    BB (me with short stack) goes all-in with JJ.
    EP calls
    MP Re-raises all-in
    SB Goes all in.
    EP folds.
    Flops comes rag,rag,rag
    Turn K
    River Q

    So, I guess my house is rigged too.
  • pkrfce9pkrfce9
    Your house, Brantford, Rama, Stars - all are rigged!

    My point is you are only likely to see a scenario like this once in your life. Maybe twice - randomness happens.

    Let's get Mickey working on the odds. When you factor in the concept that the hands would have to be distributed in a certain order to get everyone to go all-in before the flop, I'd have to expect you'd have to play millions of hands before you see it again.
  • MickeyHoldemMickeyHoldem
    <rubbing sleep from eyes> Hmmmm... someone rang?

    OK.... lets see.... what are the odds of 4 players getting AA, KK, QQ & JJ, and getting it all-in pre-flop?

    odds of getting AA = 6/(52c2)
    odds of getting KK = 6/(50c2)
    odds of getting QQ = 6/(48c2)
    odds of getting JJ = 6/(46c2)

    now there are 9 players at the table so we have choices on who gets these 4 hands = (9c4)

    = 6/(52c2) * 6/(50/2) * 6/(48c2) * 6/(46c2) * (9c4)

    Now this is for a specific order.... will only one order work for getting all the players all-in? There are 4!=24 ways to order these hands but would JJ call 3 previous all-ins, would QQ even.... if you answer yes then order doesn't matter and we can add the term 4! to the above equation giving us....

    = 6/(52c2) * 6/(50/2) * 6/(48c2) * 6/(46c2) * (9c4) * 4!

    Now this will include hands where other pocket pairs get dealt to some other players at the table. These could include other pocket AAs, or QQs, etc. Another term must be added to the above. This term would be the odds that 5 player not get dealt any pocket pair from a deck of 44 cards (missing AAKKQQJJ). This is not a trivial problem.... Lets call this term Q.

    So finally we have....

    = 6/(52c2) * 6/(50/2) * 6/(48c2) * 6/(46c2) * (9c4) * 4! * Q
    = 0.00000206660619132731 * Q

    Now Q<1 but not terribly so... let's say it's ~.9 so...

    = 0.00000206660619132731 * .9
    = 0.0000018599455721945800 or about 1 in 537650*

    *remember we don't care about order here.... if order matters then this becomes more rare...up to 24 times more rare if we want only 1 order.

    Anyone want to try and solve actual Q?
  • pkrfce9pkrfce9
    Thanks. I just love to see the math! Nice work.

    I would say order of the hands is important. Factoring in that plus the 'Q factor', I'd say we are looking at millions of hands. So Doyle and the hard core players would see this a few times perhaps but me, once.
  • RAM_EhRAM_Eh
    Mickey, you lost me at ok :D
  • moosemoose
    Please just make everyone's life easier and next time it happens just do a screen capture and post it so everyone can see. (hit printscrn to put your screen into the clipboard)
  • ConfusedONEConfusedONE
    Dead Money wrote:
    Mickey, you lost me at ok  :D
    lol...me too :D
  • ConfusedONEConfusedONE
    at a prima site back in november 'flashback' :D

    AA vs KK vs AK vs TT - 4 all ins

    flop goes QJT - nut straight for AK

    turn no help

    river T- Quads

    Unbelievable  :D

    i had AK :rage:
  • UglyJimStudlyUglyJimStudly
    literation wrote:
    UglyJimStudly wrote:
    Biggest 2/4 limit pot I've ever seen was contested among 4 players, three of whom had QQ (in middle position), KK (me, in the small blind), and AA (in the big blind).

    How many Queens?

    English is a wonderful language in that there are multiple ways to parse any given sentence. When I say "three of whom had" and then list three hands, I think it's pretty clear that I'm delineating the three hands in question. It is of course possible to parse the sentence in a nonsensical manner (as is possible for many sentences), because you're trolling or want to score board l33tnezz points or whatever, and that's your prerogative.
  • ScottyZScottyZ
    What the heck is a "whom" anyway? Is that the same thing as a "l33tnezz"?

    ;)

    TrollyZ
  • P-HoundP-Hound
    We've had problem's with that ScottyZ character before,

    He's a lot of things and let me tell you a really crappy moderator, like beyond crappy :D
    we've been signing peititions to get him out of here, but to no avail,
    maybe if we wrote l33tnezz on them they'd get more flashy and more people would pay attention, whoops I mean more whoms

    Hope you have better luck getting him bounced then us,

    Cheers

    P.
  • RAM_EhRAM_Eh
    P-Hound wrote:
    We've had problem's with that ScottyZ character before,

    He's a lot of things and let me tell you a really crappy moderator, like beyond crappy  :D
    we've been signing peititions to get him out of here, but to no avail,
    maybe if we wrote l33tnezz on them they'd get more flashy and more people would pay attention, whoops I mean more whoms

    Hope you have better luck getting him bounced then us,

    Cheers

    P.

    You are soooooo 1.gif
  • literationliteration
    Now I get it!  Better change my handle...
    UglyJimStudly wrote:
    literation wrote:
    UglyJimStudly wrote:
    Biggest 2/4 limit pot I've ever seen was contested among 4 players, three of whom had QQ (in middle position), KK (me, in the small blind), and AA (in the big blind).

    How many Queens?

    English is a wonderful language in that there are multiple ways to parse any given sentence. When I say "three of whom had" and then list three hands, I think it's pretty clear that I'm delineating the three hands in question. It is of course possible to parse the sentence in a nonsensical manner (as is possible for many sentences), because you're trolling or want to score board l33tnezz points or whatever, and that's your prerogative.
  • ScottyZScottyZ
    P-Hound wrote:
    We've had problem's with that ScottyZ character before,

    He's a lot of things and let me tell you a really crappy moderator, like beyond crappy :D
    we've been signing peititions to get him out of here, but to no avail,
    maybe if we wrote l33tnezz on them they'd get more flashy and more people would pay attention, whoops I mean more whoms

    Hope you have better luck getting him bounced then us,

    Cheers

    P.

    Did you mean to say all_aces instead of ScottyZ?

    Man that guy burns me up. :rage:

    ScottyZ
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