Won this hand...but should I have folded near the end?
I Edmonton at the Palace, 4am and was getting ready to leave. Decided that this would be my 2nd last hand as I was BB. Dealt 66 and was on a 5/10 limit table, 9 players.
middle position raised and SB raised again. 10 to me. MP has been bluffing all night, SB fairly aggressive. I call after thinking for a moment.
flop comes 66A rainbow. I was hoping that one of them hit their pair. MP bets, SB raises. Got a little worried, until I asked MP if he hit the quad... he laughed and said " of course. Wish this was a NL game." After playing with him all night, I knew that he didn't hit anything. SB was a tougher read. I raised. So did MP, SB capped it.
Turn comes K. so now it is 66AK. Same thing to me . Still knowing that I had the nuts at the time, I raised, and it was capped off.
River comes A. Same betting to me. I start to worry about the quad A. Couldn't get a read on SB. I figured that I was against at least 1 FH.
Turns out that they both had FH, one a full of K, and one K full of A. I still won, but it was a limit game. I was wondering that if one of them would of went all in in a tourney, ( yes I know chips stacks etc have a huge impact), but what would of been the best bet for me?
middle position raised and SB raised again. 10 to me. MP has been bluffing all night, SB fairly aggressive. I call after thinking for a moment.
flop comes 66A rainbow. I was hoping that one of them hit their pair. MP bets, SB raises. Got a little worried, until I asked MP if he hit the quad... he laughed and said " of course. Wish this was a NL game." After playing with him all night, I knew that he didn't hit anything. SB was a tougher read. I raised. So did MP, SB capped it.
Turn comes K. so now it is 66AK. Same thing to me . Still knowing that I had the nuts at the time, I raised, and it was capped off.
River comes A. Same betting to me. I start to worry about the quad A. Couldn't get a read on SB. I figured that I was against at least 1 FH.
Turns out that they both had FH, one a full of K, and one K full of A. I still won, but it was a limit game. I was wondering that if one of them would of went all in in a tourney, ( yes I know chips stacks etc have a huge impact), but what would of been the best bet for me?
Comments
I'm not sure that I fully understand your question. I will go through your post with my thoughts.
I fold in this spot. Limit is not a game of implied odds. The MP players raise does not represent much, as you point out, but it doesn't take much to be in a good spot vs. 66. If that was the only raise then I probably call and make a "probe bet" on the flop. But, once it is re-raised you are in a small favourite (against AK) or BIG dog (against over pair) situation. Ugh. Are you getting implied odds to make the call? Maybe. Making simple assumptions, if you flop a set one in ten times and always win with it, then you will need to win $90 with yoru set to break even. There is $25 in the pot when you call, will you be able to extract another $65? It will be close. You MIGHT have implied odds, but it will be VERY high variance and if it is positive EV then it is very marginally so.
Having said that... at 4 AM, with two hands to go, I probably call too.
At this point, your only question is, "How to I make as much money as I can?" Checking seems the right play on the flop.
Amen brother.
In a no-limit game you would have been justified in calling pre-flop if the chips were deep enough (about 10% of your stack and/or 10% of your opponents stack). Once the flop hit you for quads, maniplute the betting to get every stinking chip in the pot that you can. Gamble the engagement ring off your fiance's finger if you get the chance. She won't mind and there is only a very small chance that she will hate you for it at the end of the night.
Unless the table was 3 handed why would you post your SB and BB and then leave the table?
If you wanna leave, be smart and leave before your BB.
The blinds are $1 and $2 at a $5-$10 limit game? Is this a spread limit 5-5-10-10 game or something?
The unusual blind information would be important to the original hand analysis. With 66 on the BB, you'd have an easy call if to was raised and re-raised to merely $4 more back to you. On the other hand, facing a call of the maximum of $10 cold, a fold would be pretty clear.
In a sturctured limit game with the usual blind structure, voluntarily1 leaving the game at a time where you would miss your orbit of "free" hands is a horrible mistake, and one which is of the magnitude that would certainly affect long term results. Again, with standard structuire and blinds, my free hands (online) have earned me a +EV on the order of 0.5 big bets per orbit, which is roughly 5 big bets per 100 hands. This is a significant long term mistake, even if you make it only once.
With a non-standard blind structure (which the OP failed to mention), an winning player may even be able to squeeze a +EV out of a $2 BB in a 5-5-10-10 game. It's certainly plausible that playing $3 in blinds is not that big a disaster in a 5-5-10-10 spread limit game.
If I have a specific time I'd like to leave, I usually allow a 20 minute window (about the length of a typical orbit) before that time, and will leave if I have just completed the UTG hand within that window.
Of course, there have been times where the reality of a juicy game (if the time I had to leave was in fact flexible) where I have adjusted my "leaving time window" considerably. :cool:
ScottyZ
1That is, if you are not sick, tired, on tilt, having an emergency, etc, etc.