Hand discussion

ScoobyDScoobyD
in Online Poker
An interesting hand last night, just curious how others would have played it (specifically the turn).

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Qd, Qc.
1 fold, UTG+1 (Loose player) calls, 1 fold, MP2 (unknown) raises, Hero 3-bets, CO calls, 3 folds, UTG+1 (Loose player) calls, MP2 (unknown) caps, Hero calls, CO calls, UTG+1 (Loose player) calls.

Flop: (17.50 SB) Kd, Td, Qh (4 players)
Loose player bets, unknown calls, Hero raises, CO folds, Loose player calls, unknown calls. (I'm pretty sure I'm ahead here with the capper just calling the orginal bet and the raise, AK springs to mind).

Turn: (11.75 BB) Jd (3 players)
Loose player bets, unknown raises, Hero: ??? This has to be probably the worst card ever. 3 card flush and the 4 card straight on the board. I feel like the preflop capper probably is raising broadway (not the flush). I also have picked up an OESFD plus my outs to fill up.

Call, 3 bet or fold?

I'll post what I did and the results later...

Comments

  • BBC ZBBC Z
    This is entirely read dependant.

    If you think that one guy had the straight and the other the flush, then it's a 3-bet with 3 players for value.

    Result

    http://twodimes.net/h/?z=961918
    pokenum -h qd qs - 9d 5d - ah kh -- kd qh jd td
    Holdem Hi: 42 enumerated boards containing Kd Jd Td Qh
    cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
    Qs Qd 16 38.10 26 61.90 0 0.00 0.381
    9d 5d 26 61.90 16 38.10 0 0.00 0.619
    Ah Kh 0 0.00 42 100.00 0 0.00 0.000

    You dont have to worry about any of those players folding, their hands are too big.
  • ScottyZScottyZ
    I would call any number of bets of the turn.

    Facing the bet and a raise from a player who has only been calling on the flop, I would conclude that I was currently losing. Probably at least one player has at least the Ace-high straight.

    You may have 10 outs here to the full house. It's possible that you have way more outs than this if your Q-high flush draw would be good. Also, there's a slim chance that you may hit your full house and still lose the hand, say, if a K falls. Overall, I think that the 10 out draw is a nice middle of the road assessment of your outs.

    Assuming the turn is capped, you are offered almost 5 to 1 from the pot for what appears to be a 4.6 to 1 draw.

    Assuming that you do not have the best hand right now, raising for value basically comes down to whether you think that the Ad is out, since you would be getting 2 to 1 on your money for any value bets/raises that you make (assuming that both of your opponents stay in). If you knew that the opponents' hands are as in BBC Z's example (where your flush draw is good), then raising would be fine.

    It's a tricky thing to try to nail down actually. Although you should rarely put opponents on one exact card, Ad is a pretty darn reasonable hand for one of your opponents to have. The betting so far virtually guarantees that at least one opponent has an Ace. I'd even say that it's likely that they both have an Ace. Combine this with the fact that at least one of them probably has at least one (or possibly two) diamonds, and I'd be a little reluctant to push a small +EV edge in cases where no Ad is present since I face a much larger -EV loss when an opponent has the Ad.

    Raising might also be a consideration for other reasons (e.g. to possibly slow your opponents down), but my feeling is that raising for this kind of reason is too fancy for 1/2.

    As an aside, here's a great example to look at for the "I have statistical evidence that online poker is rigged" folks. The probably that one of the two opponents has the exact card Ad on the turn is most certainly not (1 choose 1) * (45 choose 3) / (46 choose 4). It is greater than that.

    Equivalently, the probability that the river card is the Ad is not 1/46. It is less than that.

    ScottyZ
  • ScoobyDScoobyD
    Just another question. If you call the turn bets and don't improve by the river, do you feel obligated to make a crying call (even though it seems highly likely you're beat) for one bet given the big pot size?
  • BBC ZBBC Z
    getting like 30 to 1, yes.
  • ScottyZScottyZ
    ScoobyD wrote:
    Just another question. If you call the turn bets and don't improve by the river, do you feel obligated to make a crying call (even though it seems highly likely you're beat) for one bet given the big pot size?

    Facing a single bet, I'd probably make the river call. The call is even easier if it goes bet-call to you and you'd be closing the action.

    If it turns out to be a bet and raise to you on the river, it's a pretty tough decision I think. I'd like to think I could make a tough fold here.

    It also depends on some degree what the turn action was specifically. For example, if the original turn bettor had actually slowed down on the turn, there is a slim chance that he has a two pair (or set) hand that he no longer likes, and the other opponent may be overplaying some kind of hand like a draw (or has two pair or a set himself) and making a desparation river raise. It's a big longshot of course, but it's a big big pot too.

    ScottyZ
  • ScoobyDScoobyD
    Anyways, here was the results:

    Turn: (11.75 BB) Jd (3 players)
    Loose Player bets, Unknown raises, Hero 3-bets, Loose Player calls, Unknown calls.

    River: (20.75 BB) 7h (3 players)
    Loose Player checks, Unknown checks, Hero checks. (I didn't figure I'm getting anyone to lay down broadway into this big of a pot with a bluff attempt here, so thought I'd save the bet)

    Final Pot: 20.75 BB

    Results below:
    Loose Player has Th 6h (one pair, tens).
    Unknown has As Ac (straight, ace high).
    Hero has Qd Qc (three of a kind, queens).
    Outcome: Unknown wins 20.75 BB.

    In short, not the end result I had hoped for, but turns out I actually had a tremendous number of outs to win. I'm still unsure whether calling the turn or raising it is the best play here, but think either alternative is probably pretty close (in the end it won me a free showdown which I thought of as a victory of sorts, since I felt compelled to call one bet on the river anyways). And T-6s with no draw...what can I say, sometimes putting morons on hands is just a waste of time to begin with. :)
  • Flint BonesFlint Bones
    In this case I don't think the Unknown player was going to fold to any bet. You were sunk. The only possible chance to get the AA to fold was on the flop and I have a feeling only an all-in here may have chased him. Your QQ got cracked plain and simple by a better hand. I think you were beat from the deal.
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