How to tell if you are improving?

So I have been playing holdem now for about a year and I think I have improved my skills (I am far from being good), but now I can confidently go to a cash game and finish anywhere up 50-100% of my buy in. So if I go to a 1/2 game and buy in for 70, I'm usually up 30-70. Sometimes I can 4x my buy in if I'm geting good cards and not getting bad beats.

Whats a good metric to judge oneself. I heard from a guy at the casino that if you can make $20/hour then thats pretty good. So if I go to the casino or game for 4 hours, I should make $80 or so.

Does that seem reasonable?

As for trnys. i can usually finish in the top 10% about 50% of the time otherwise I bust out close tot he beginning.

Some friends tell me I am not consistant in my placings because I play too loose.

Comments

  • Just wait for sweet lady variance to give you a shake from her magic wand
  • My feeling is that you want to see higher lows and higher highs...like a nice uptrending stock...

    Bill
  • Hmmm... an interesting question. First I will comments on a couple of thinkgs that you have said and then I will give you some thoughts about "knowing you are improving."
    So I have been playing holdem now for about a year and I think I have improved my skills (I am far from being good), but now I can confidently go to a cash game and finish anywhere up 50-100% of my buy in. So if I go to a 1/2 game and buy in for 70, I'm usually up 30-70. Sometimes I can 4x my buy in if I'm geting good cards and not getting bad beats.

    This appears incomplete. How long is the game? In poker, you cannot say "I make $X per session." The statistic that is significant is "hourly win rate." And, you records should be complete enough that you are able to show what your hourly rate is.
    I heard from a guy at the casino that if you can make $20/hour then thats pretty good. So if I go to the casino or game for 4 hours, I should make $80 or so.

    Again, not enough information. What is the size of the game? I have never seen good information on big bet poker and I don't play enough to be able to offer my own results at big bet. In limit poker, about 1 big bet/hour is a good estimate of the win rate of a skillful player in a traditional game. So, $20 an hour is good if you are playing $10-20. You should have a $6000 bankroll to play at that level consistantly.
    As for trnys. i can usually finish in the top 10% about 50% of the time otherwise I bust out close tot he beginning.

    That number is too high. My own estimate concerning the upcoming WSOP Championship is that I have an 18% chance of making the top 10%.

    So... how do you "know" you are getting better?

    First, I doubt that it will be results based. It might be, but results can be based on the level you are playing with no actual increase in skill. In fact, I think most players develop their game. And, they play that game. They move up in level until THEIR game becomes no longer profitable at which point they drop back down. It's the peter principle at work -- promoted to the level of incompetence.

    You will know you are getting better is (1) You are contunuing to have positive results and (2) You are continuing to evolve and see the game in new and interesting lights.

    For example, when you start to see "tells" that you did not always see that you are probably improving. When I started I read Mike Caro's Book of Tells and I started to REALLY try and see them. I could not. At least, not very often. Now I see tells when I am not looking. Now I am observing players without event making an effort to do so.

    I used to have to really concentrate on pot odds. Now, I rarely think about it choosing instead to spend my time on thinking about my opponents.

    So... I guess what I am saying is that you will simply KNOW that you are getting better. If you are working hard to get better and being honest with yourself you will know that you are being successful. Beware, however, because sometimes it is hard to see that you have learned anything.
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