Hand Analysis from tonight's LeaderBoard Tourney
Call or fold facing the river all-in bet?
No giving away what happened if you were there!
Average Stack is ~2,500. Top 3 places pay, 10 or 11 players remaining.
ScottyZ
PokerStars Game #1633414501: Tournament #6858149, Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2005/05/03 - 22:29:00 (ET)
Table '6858149 2' Seat #8 is the button
Seat 3: IronDoc (901 in chips)
Seat 4: ScottyZ (2700 in chips)
Seat 7: Plaxus (5147 in chips)
Seat 8: Young Grimmm (2165 in chips)
Seat 9: pkrfce9 (2262 in chips)
pkrfce9: posts small blind 50
IronDoc: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ScottyZ [Jd As]
ScottyZ: raises 200 to 300
Plaxus: folds
Young Grimmm: raises 200 to 500
pkrfce9: folds
pkrfce9 said, "ty"
IronDoc: folds
ScottyZ: calls 200
*** FLOP *** [2s 2d Ts]
ScottyZ: checks
Young Grimmm: checks
*** TURN *** [2s 2d Ts] [6c]
ScottyZ: checks
Young Grimmm: checks
*** RIVER *** [2s 2d Ts 6c] [Ac]
Ruberman [observer] makes a comment about the hand in progress, which I think is pretty crappy.
ScottyZ: checks
Young Grimmm: bets 1665 and is all-in
ScottyZ: Goes into the tank.
No giving away what happened if you were there!
Average Stack is ~2,500. Top 3 places pay, 10 or 11 players remaining.
ScottyZ
PokerStars Game #1633414501: Tournament #6858149, Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2005/05/03 - 22:29:00 (ET)
Table '6858149 2' Seat #8 is the button
Seat 3: IronDoc (901 in chips)
Seat 4: ScottyZ (2700 in chips)
Seat 7: Plaxus (5147 in chips)
Seat 8: Young Grimmm (2165 in chips)
Seat 9: pkrfce9 (2262 in chips)
pkrfce9: posts small blind 50
IronDoc: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ScottyZ [Jd As]
ScottyZ: raises 200 to 300
Plaxus: folds
Young Grimmm: raises 200 to 500
pkrfce9: folds
pkrfce9 said, "ty"
IronDoc: folds
ScottyZ: calls 200
*** FLOP *** [2s 2d Ts]
ScottyZ: checks
Young Grimmm: checks
*** TURN *** [2s 2d Ts] [6c]
ScottyZ: checks
Young Grimmm: checks
*** RIVER *** [2s 2d Ts 6c] [Ac]
Ruberman [observer] makes a comment about the hand in progress, which I think is pretty crappy.
ScottyZ: checks
Young Grimmm: bets 1665 and is all-in
ScottyZ: Goes into the tank.
Comments
If you bet 300 and are raised, you can fold. Since you checked, you opened the door to him moving in on a bluff. The question is, why would he bluff here? The only hand you'll call him with is a pair of aces, so unless your opponent is a not so great player, you can't put him on anything less than AK/AQ. OTOH, why would he bet SO MUCH???
I can see why you posted this hand. It's very interesting. I still think checking the river was a mistake, because as I said you gave him an opportunity to bluff at the pot and give you the hard decision.
I probably call here with my fingers crossed, at the end of the day. But, I never would have gotten myself into this situation to begin with.Â
That flop begged for a continuation bet. Based on the betting, I think your ace was good. But thinking about Grimmy's play to that point, I don't recall seeing him make a big bet without the goods. Hmmm. Tough one. I agree with AA - lead out with a bet. If he comes over the top, you can throw your hand away. You had plenty of chips so you could afford to try this.
I was reminded of this _again_ watching the feature table from last year's play at the Plaza.
Posted in white:
I folded. Opponent did not show.
I said in the chat (after folding):
ScottyZ said, "you must have Tens"
I think that's really the only hand that makes sense. The opponent checking behind me on a raised and min-reraised pot really set off the alarm bells for me. Basically, the pot is already big enough pre-flop to want to pick up with no hassle on the flop.
On the other hand, even if the opponent was playing his hand "as is" with a big Ace, I can't imagine the opponent moving all-in on the river with less than AK.
My main conclusion in real time was that any hand other than TT doesn't make any sense, since it would have been played so poorly (considering the action on all streets) by the opponent (except possibly the AK, even which I didn't think was played that great). Slowplaying an overpair (even AA) on the flop and turn (where I had checked both times) with a two flush showing doesn't make any sense. It makes even less sense to move all-in with JJ-KK when the Ace finally hits. A stone cold bluff, or desparation "I missed" bet, would be too risky facing the river Ace. Plus, a worse Ace than AJ would be more than happy to check and show down.
Finally, what hand does my opponent probably put me on based on the pre-river action? More than likely some kind of Ace. (Not even necessarily a big Ace--- we're 5-handed.) When the river appears to improve my hand, the opponent makes a nice play by moving all-in IMO. To be honest, I probably have to call a smaller river bet; but in my opponent's shoes, I'd make exacltly the same all-in bet in that situation expecting to be called most of the time.
ScottyZ
Average Stack is ~2,500. Top 3 places pay, 10 or 11 players remaining.
***Average stack. Lots compared to the blinds.
***A standard raise that says to me opponents "I have a hand I am interested in playing."
***He is not super short so this is why he does not move all-in. But, I am always suspicious when I see such a small raise. I am going to call the 200, but my spider sense is tingling.
***I am done with the hand.
Ah... yes... I see the conundrum.
Very good hand. Very good question. My first instinct was to fold, but ... not that easy.
Still, I will put him on A-J, A-K, A-Q or -- my personal pick, T-T and fold. I pick fold.
And, the consequences of being wrong (and calling) are extreme.