Bad play... or not??

I have been beating myself up about the following hand from local $100 freeze out NL tourney.

48 players start $5000 chips (240,000) total in play. I have been playing well and made it to the money (top 5).

I have $75,000 and have a slim lead over solid player to my right.

I pick up 10-10 on the button. Blinds are 2000-4000. Short stack player under the gun folds. Solid player (to my right) who has approx. 68,000 has been making frequent 3xbb raises (at least once a round). She again makes it 12,000 to go.

At final table I have been playing very few hands after winning a 45,000 pot with AA.

I put raiser on a wide range of hands from any ace, to any small pair, to K10, Q10 10-J or possibly even smaller suited connectors.

Options: just call, raise to 24,000 (very likely to be called) raise more, to maybe 36,000 (leaving out if she moves in) or simply moving all in.

I decide that I do not want to let QJ or KJ type hands see the flop, so I move in. She calls immediately all in with AK. Turns a King.

Of course, now that I am on fumes, next hand I find AA!! Luckily double up and outlast other short stack to make it to 4th before losing with QJ to J8.


Was moving in a bad play, or just unfortunate to be up against AK who was willing to gamble?

I have been finding myself in these situations frequently lately and it is getting frustrating!

Black99

Comments

  • Black99 wrote:

    I have $75,000 and have a slim lead over solid player to my right.

    I pick up 10-10 on the button.  Blinds are 2000-4000.  Short stack player under the gun folds.  Solid player (to my right) who has approx. 68,000 has been making frequent 3xbb raises (at least once a round).  She again makes it 12,000 to go. 

    With this solid player only raising 3xbb once a round, I would have put her with a solid hand here, I would have just called and waited to see what she did after the flop. If she hits the flop with a big raise get out, if she limps in than you really have some thinking to do.


    Black99 wrote:
    Options:  just call, raise to 24,000 (very likely to be called) raise more, to maybe 36,000 (leaving out if she moves in) or simply moving all in.
    I decide that I do not want to let QJ or KJ type hands see the flop, so I move in.  She calls immediately all in with AK.  .


    If she has been a solid player all night, and anly seems to raise once a round, you have to know that she will call any raise. Moving all in, I dunno, 1) I hate pockets 2) 10's, there is a lot of paint over 10's 3) has she been challenged before and called?

    I don't think it was a bad play, just unfortunate to go against someone willing to gamble.

    I seem to push with pockets over 8's preflop, and most of the time I take a hit. I beleive that the same hands with the same flops will play different with different players.

    I am slowly starting to realize for myself that yes the cards have a major factor in the game, but you have to watch and learn who are the weak players, strong players, loose players, tight players and stupid players.

    Regardless of all my rantings, I would have done the same.
  • Was moving in a bad play,...

    I don't think so. I also would have moved all-in.
    ...or just unfortunate to be up against AK who was willing to gamble?

    The tone here seems to be that you think the AK made a bad play. I think the AK has an easy call here.

    You want to avoid close gambles in tournaments when you believe you can wait for better future opportunities to come along. That is not the case here.

    1. This tournament has very little play left in it. The chip leader has under 20 big blinds. There is simply not enough time to wait to pass up hands as good as AK and TT.

    2. The thinking that hands like TT and AK are "coin toss" hands here is probably incorrect. In a 5-handed game where the blinds are big enough to be putting pressure on every single player, each of these hands has a very good chance of dominating many hands that the opponent would make a play with. The actual result is misleading I think. From the point of view of both the TT and the AK, it is quite unusual in this kind of spot for the opponent to be in the (pretty) good shape that they are in.

    ScottyZ
  • Thanks ScottyZ

    I did not mean to imply that the AK made a mistake. I would have called in her position. However, I think there are other players who would rather not call for all of their chips when they are likely not a favourite to win the hand. My thinking was that if she has a hand like KQ or KJ or even AJ, she would likely lay it down in that spot.

    I had been thinking (partly due to the fact that I know the flop came 8 high) that I should have just called pre flop and hopefully she would not move in after missing the flop. However, now that I have thought about it, I think it is very likely that she bets out after missing the flop and probable that she calls if I move in on top of her.

    Oh well, thats poker*&#$%%
  • My thinking was that if she has a hand like KQ or KJ or even AJ, she would likely lay it down in that spot.

    That's certainly a possibility, and I think it's a big part of what makes raising with the TT superior to just calling here.
    I had been thinking (partly due to the fact that I know the flop came 8 high) that I should have just called pre flop and hopefully she would not move in after missing the flop.

    The trouble with just calling is that it is quite unlikely that you'll see a safe flop for your TT. Although it was the actual result in this case, the chances of flopping undercards to your TT (or a T) are well below 50%.
    [If you had just called pre-flop...] I think it is very likely that she bets out after missing the flop and probable that she calls if I move in on top of her.

    Unless your opponent is pretty bad, I'd believe the first part, but not the second. If you had just called pre-flop, I think either player still has enough chips to get away from an unfriendly flop.

    Notice that if your opponent is aggressive in first position after the flop, this will cause you problems.

    Basically, all flops containing a J, Q, K, or A (with no T) will look bad to you. If your opponent would bet all of these flops regardless of her actual hole cards, you are going to be in big trouble (in terms of facing a tough decision) on most flops with your TT.

    Best to clarify the situation with a raise pre-flop IMO (as well as possibly getting some 2 overcard hands to fold).

    ScottyZ
  • Cold read...
    48 players start $5000 chips (240,000) total in play. I have been playing well and made it to the money (top 5).

    I have $75,000 and have a slim lead over solid player to my right.

    I pick up 10-10 on the button. Blinds are 2000-4000. Short stack player under the gun folds. Solid player (to my right) who has approx. 68,000 has been making frequent 3xbb raises (at least once a round). She again makes it 12,000 to go.


    She has a wide range of hands. You like your T-T, but you don't want to get broke if you can help it.
    At final table I have been playing very few hands after winning a 45,000 pot with AA.

    I put raiser on a wide range of hands from any ace, to any small pair, to K10, Q10 10-J or possibly even smaller suited connectors.

    OK. we agree.
    Options: just call, raise to 24,000 (very likely to be called) raise more, to maybe 36,000 (leaving out if she moves in) or simply moving all in.

    Calling isn't ideal. You probably have the best hand, but you want to win it NOW. Is it possible to raise enough that she will fold without having to move in? It should be. If you are perceived as tight then your raise should get respect. I like a raise to about $30K. It should be enough to fold her. If not, you have a second barrel to fire on the flop. Moving in is OK, but I don't prefer it since you will fold weak hands, but get called for all your chips against strong hands.
    I decide that I do not want to let QJ or KJ type hands see the flop, so I move in. She calls immediately all in with AK. Turns a King.

    Of course, now that I am on fumes, next hand I find AA!! Luckily double up and outlast other short stack to make it to 4th before losing with QJ to J8.


    Was moving in a bad play, or just unfortunate to be up against AK who was willing to gamble?

    I have been finding myself in these situations frequently lately and it is getting frustrating!

    i don't think a bad play. And yes, you got unlucky. You got it all in with the best of it. Was it possible to lower your varaince by making it $30K pre-flop and then moving in on the flop? Maybe, but alsu maybe not. If she had moved in pre-flop you probably would have folded and she would have pulled off a huge coup.
  • After reading Scotty's comments, I agree.

    I prefer my $30K raise IF you have your opponent in that box (an uncreative player). My second choice is to move in. My third choice is to call.
  • Thanks for the replies Scotty and Dave...

    I tend to like Dave's 30K suggestion. This player is a good (at least a good local tourney player) and I think she would want to avoid putting all her money in pre-flop if she could avoid it (unless she had an overpair to my 10 10) in which case an all in re-raise is almost automatic. Therefore, if she just calls my re-raise, then I can be confident I am likely the best if it turns out that there are no overcards on the flop (which in fact occurred).

    Thanks for the valuable imput. I did not think my play was terrible, but wanted reassurance!

    PS. Dave, are you planning to come to Edmonton for the 500$ freeze out events May 13-15?

    Black99
  • Nope.

    I am going to New York next week and then The WSOP for two trips. That's about as much as I can be away from home for.
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