UB $20+2 tournament hand.

Hork42

224 players to start.  35 players left, top 30 pay.
Average stack size is 9600 and i had been moved to this table recently, so no reads.
Dealt A7s in MP, one limper to me.

Two questions about this hand: 

1)  See a cheap flop, raise to try to steal, or just fold altogether?
2)  Once I see the flop:  Straight and flush draw and overcard... 

If my opponent has a pair, I'm a favourite.  Two pair, I'm a coin flip.   A set or a straight, a bit of a dog, but with outs...  I don't know if he'd bet at the flopped straight or set so heavily, so I don't think he has those.   I'm likely facing a coin flip or better - is my push ok?  I was thinking if I push, there may be some fold equity created to sway things in my favour.

Hand #5589113-164 at Sund Apr 24-001 (No Limit tournament Hold'em)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 24/Apr/05 15:06:43

funpat is at seat 1 with 2365.
dkenyon2134 is at seat 2 with 4465.
XthebigmanX is at seat 3 with 13965.
Plaxus is at seat 4 with 6415.
faque is at seat 5 with 8935.
DOZEY is at seat 6 with 5655.
badazz30 is at seat 7 with 6465.
GratefulED is at seat 8 with 18535.
26TANK is at seat 9 with 8385.
The button is at seat 6.

funpat posts ante (25).
dkenyon2134 posts ante (25).
XthebigmanX posts ante (25).
Plaxus posts ante (25).
faque posts ante (25).
DOZEY posts ante (25).
badazz30 posts ante (25).
GratefulED posts ante (25).
26TANK posts ante (25).
GratefulED posts the small blind of 150.
26TANK posts the big blind of 300.


GratefulED:  -- --
26TANK:  -- --
funpat:  -- --
dkenyon2134:  -- --
XthebigmanX:  -- --
Plaxus:  Ad 7d
faque:  -- --
DOZEY:  -- --
badazz30:  -- --

Pre-flop:

funpat folds.
dkenyon2134 calls.
XthebigmanX folds.
Plaxus calls.
faque folds.
DOZEY folds.
badazz30 calls.
GratefulED calls.
26TANK checks.

Flop (board: 5d 4d 6h)

GratefulED bets 1725.
26TANK folds.
dkenyon2134 folds.
Plaxus goes all-in for 6090.
badazz30 folds.
GratefulED calls.

Tournament all-in showdown -- players show:

Plaxus shows Ad 7d.
GratefulED shows 5h 4h.

Turn (board: 5d 4d 6h Ac)

(no action in this round)


River (board: 5d 4d 6h Ac 5c)

(no action in this round)



Showdown:

Plaxus has Ad 7d 5d Ac 5c: two pair, aces and fives.
GratefulED has 5h 4h 5d 4d 5c: full house, fives full of fours.


Hand #5589113-164 Summary:

No rake is taken for this hand.
GratefulED wins 13905 with full house, fives full of fours.

---

Tigerscott

15 outs I go broke there too

Unknown

I go broke too.  You can't just call a flop bet that big, it's either push or fold.  And, with 15 outs twice, I'd be pushing.  Especially since you're drawing to the nut flush, and to the top end of the straight.

This reminds me of a hand that was recently on the re-broadcast of the NBC 'poker superstars' tournament.  At least, I think that's what it was called... I believe it first aired after the Superbowl.  Anyways, Gus Hansen got to see a free flop in the BB after Chip Reese (I think) limped with kings.  Gus had 36, I think, and saw a flop of 456.  He bet, Chip moved in, and Gus spent a while figuring out the math.  Finally, he called, and when he saw Chip's kings he said 'that's what I was hoping you had'. 

Now, how often do you hope your opponent has pocket kings?  OK, I guess you could think of lots of times, depending on your hand, but you get my point.  BTW, if you didn't see the show, Gus hit his 2 on the turn.  Too bad you missed your outs, just unlucky IMO.

I should also mention that if you are just trying to make the money, a fold is the right play.  With 21 big blinds, you can afford to wait it out I think.  But something tells me you don't generally play 'just to make the money'...

Redington

Outside of the cards, heres what I am thiinking;

Im new to the table, so I have no reads, but no one know anything about me either.
Why limp? either fold or raise, you have NO image.
I have no problem playing A7s even in EP but without a raise you have shown no strength, and you HAVE to fold to a reraise, even though you would probably call 3x BB raise.
So if you raise, you probably get rid of the 54s, if you get reraised you think about it along time, and fold. But it shows your noit timid, and a very diligent player. Who knows you might even get to be table captian for a while.

So you get into the hand;

The flop looks amazing for you... BUT your facing a 1700 bet into an unraised pot, from the chip leader who has you covered by 3x.
He can afford to gamble, you cannot. At best your slightly better then a coin flip, vs AA, or KK, worse if he has a set or two pair. Im really thinking he has a set or the made str.

Maybe he is bluffing you, but you have no idea, and that is your only way to be WAY ahead.

You may be able to break him if your cards hit, but he breaks you if you don't. It costs you nothing to fold. If he knew your cards, then this would make you a patsy but he has no idea.

Your pretty much assured he is going to call your reraise with a set, two pair or the str. Are you realistically hoping for str draw?, flush draw or AK?

So would you risk all of your chips preflop with AKs vs. QQ with 25BB and slighlty better then avg table stack?? 5 away from the money?

I would be waiting to get my money in with a bigger edge then that, which could be the exact same hand against a smallers stack. Or with info on what my opponents would be playing with.

You have way m,ore experiance then me, but this is what I am thinking.

Unknown

I see your points, but I'm not sure the QQ vs AK comparison holds up here.  First, GratefulED has a lot of chips.  He could easily be making that bet on a semi-bluff, with a worse draw than Hork's.  As a matter of fact, given his position (he acts first, he has a monster stack, he's in the blinds) that's exactly what I'd put him on.  A naked seven or three that wants to take it down right then and there.

So, I don't think you're giving this possibility enough credence.  His position is ideal for this kind of semi-bluff on this kind of flop, in every respect.  Because of this, the likelihood that he has a 'real' hand goes down, which means the likelihood that he will fold to an all-in raise goes up.  I think all-in was the right play here, especially if Hork put his opponent on a semi-bluff, as I would have.

As for limping/folding/raising pre-flop, I think I would have limped here too.  There's already been an EP caller, and there's a whole table left to act behind him.  With a suited ace, you want to induce a bunch of calls behind you, not shut them out.  The hand simply isn't strong enough to raise with in that situation, and it can easily be folded if a raise comes from an MP or LP player. 

Bottom line: I think you're giving the chip leader waaaaaaay too much credit if you think he'd only make that bet with a flopped set or straight.  I think that, far more often, he'd look at the flop and think it missed everybody, and he'd look at the stacks and determine that a pot-sized bet could get a lot of hands to fold, if he's wrong.  A good play with any two, or more likely, with a draw.

Dave Scharf

Just shy of the money.

See a cheap flop, raise to try to steal, or just fold altogether?

You have 6415 chips. Blinds are 150-300 with a 25 ante. Although you are small stacked, you have LOTS of chips. You do not need to push the panic button. But, you don’t want to bleed yourself to death, either. I favor folding.

Once I see the flop: Straight and flush draw and overcard...

I, like you, move in. I think your chips are deep enough that you do, in fact, add fold equity against the range of hands he might have. Heck, he is a BIG stack in an unraised pot, in the small blind. He could have A LOT of different cards here. Does he call you if he has 6-Js? Doubt it. Add to that the possibility that you either have (1) the best hand or (2) the favourite then you can’t really put the hand down.

I like your play.

Playing to win? Move in.

Kweejibo

pre-flop, I would probably fold. With a caller in front of you, it makes it a little more difficult to take control of the betting after the flop, and at this stage in the tournament, it is important to be the one calling the shots.

after the flop, i would call. Although you have a very strong draw that will hit more than 50%, in the end it is still just a draw. It's been my experience that a person that makes a bet that size will not lay down to an all-in, and he also will probably not slow down when you hit your hand. If you push and miss your draw then u go home with nothing, if you call and miss then you still have a few chips to make it to the money. So i would be willing to go all-in, but i would avoid it if possible.

HItting the ace on te turn just makes the hand a little more dangerous but adds a few more outs if you are trailling. If he comes out betting I call whatever the bet is. If he checks , i put him on a draw and push it all-in