CNPL hand for analysis
Single table satellite tournament, top player gets an entry into this Sunday's 500K on pokerstars.Â
Two early position limpers Chugs and Hork. stpboy in late position with AA. I'm faily certain at this point of the tournament I had the chip lead but not a significant one stp (1920tc) and Chugs (1640tc).
Blinds 15/30
Chugs limps
Hork limps
stp raises 130 to 160
chugs calls 130
Hork respects my bet and doesn't call with a garbage hand...
Flop 8 9 J rainbow
Chugs bets out 230
stp raises to 230 to 460
Chugs calls
Turn 7
Chugs bets out 550
stp folds
I realize this was an easy fold at this point in the hand considering the board BUT on the flop if I would have thought about it I could easily put Chugs on JT. Can I push here all-in on the flop with AA and expect a good player to fold? Or do you like that I minimized my losses by raising and gettting away from it on the scary turn card. Perhaps I could have raised more on the flop but I am confident that with the board as it was only an all-in would have possibly gotten him to fold.
stp
Two early position limpers Chugs and Hork. stpboy in late position with AA. I'm faily certain at this point of the tournament I had the chip lead but not a significant one stp (1920tc) and Chugs (1640tc).
Blinds 15/30
Chugs limps
Hork limps
stp raises 130 to 160
chugs calls 130
Hork respects my bet and doesn't call with a garbage hand...
Flop 8 9 J rainbow
Chugs bets out 230
stp raises to 230 to 460
Chugs calls
Turn 7
Chugs bets out 550
stp folds
I realize this was an easy fold at this point in the hand considering the board BUT on the flop if I would have thought about it I could easily put Chugs on JT. Can I push here all-in on the flop with AA and expect a good player to fold? Or do you like that I minimized my losses by raising and gettting away from it on the scary turn card. Perhaps I could have raised more on the flop but I am confident that with the board as it was only an all-in would have possibly gotten him to fold.
stp
Comments
*** RAISE WAS TO 150 (checked the log)
I also respect your play enough, that i think you could put that raise in as a standard squeeze play, but yes it was a loose call on my part and one i will make often at the start of a sng with this format, winner take all. For the record my hand was JTs
*** I checked the flop to you
*** you bet 180 which is half the pot
*** i min-raised you 180 more
*** you re-raised me 180 more
Now i suddenly realize i'm not in a good spot (no the initial raise and his flop bet didn't tell me that
So i tried to run through the probable hands you could have had.
A min re-raise with AK or AQ, doesn't add up, with strictly overcards. You would have called my bet.
KQ is a maybe, with you have overcards and a gutshot, trying to force me to be timid on the turn and get a free river, but again a call it possible
AA-KK real possibilities. Not to scared of letting overcards come out, and hard to not think you're good, just milking me for chips.
QQ overpair, with gutshot, would likely push real hard not wanting to risk letting an overcard showup (if i had a hand like AJs or KTs)
JJ top set, the betting would make sense, but tough for you to have with me holding one J and one on the board
TT gives you middle pair, with an OSD, like KQ would make sense, but again the last re-raise would be agressive but possible.
99 or 88 flopping any set likely would be played like JJ, and was possible, but not probable based on your pre-flop raise.
So with the nature of your betting i've narrowed you down to AA, KK or TT, with an outside shot of KQ. I decided that you weren't likely to be raising with 99 or 88 and JJ was just to unlikely.
I figured with AA or KK i would not be able to get you to lay down the better hand, and that against TT or KQ i was in decent shape.
For the record i obviously didn't lay it down this perfectly at the time, i did very quickly list out the hands and see if your bet made sense, obviously i was working from a more limited range of hands, since i marked you with a good hand based on the raise (rightly or wrongly). I picked this up from Dan harrington's book, which still blows my mind. Sure harrington would likely say i played it badly, but i'm glad i could apply or at least misapply something i read
*** I BET OUT 510 (1/3 the pot)
I'll behonest i thought i made the perfect sized bet, based on the hands i thought you had. in reality that bet on the turn was the worst move of either of us in the entire hand, but I should let you in on a secret. I intended to put in a big bet on the turn with any scare card, any card that made my straight, or paired the board was going to cause a bet on my part. The only good card that would have likely caused me pause was a 'T' since it would have hit two of the hands i thought you might have.
I don't think my flop bet really could let you know i had a hand like JT. With me calling your raise after an EP raise, i could have easily flopped a set, two pair, a straight draw or one pair, all of which would have likely caused a bet from me.
stp
Chips are deep.
Great result. Getting your A-A heads up.
Ugh. A hard flop to play against. It will give your opponent all sort of semi-bluffing possibilities, and worse yet, maybe even a hand. Proceed with caution, don't go broke on the hand (at least that's what I would be thinking).
OK. I would have made the raise to about 700 to put some pressure on a possible straight draw. But I think this approach is OK too.
ALARM!
I agree. Don't go bust. Preserve your chips.
I don't favour moving in on the flop. There are lots of things he could have: bluff, semi-bluff, A-J, J-T, two pair, or a set. Moving in against a hand that has you beat plays right into his trap. I like a raise that defines my hand and leaves me an escape.
Now... to read the other responses.