Is this useful or a big "so what?"
This is an excerpt from my current poker log. Comments are welcome. I think I might have discovered my belly button with this one...
The nature of poker tournaments
I spent a lot of time working out a new blind structure for Casino Regina (I sent it to them unsolicited because I have some concerns about the Tex’s Tears structure in BIG events like the one that they are planning for July). This exercise caused me to spend some time thinking about blind structures and how it tournaments are run.
So, suppose that you had a tournament in which the blinds doubled EVERY hand. This will, of course, be an extremely fast action tournament in which skill will matter very little. Now, suppose you had a tournament in which the blinds doubled every level, but levels were 20 hours long. Even though the blinds are doubling, this would be slower than the WSOP Championship event. So, to state the obvious: “The skill overlay in a tournament is diminished in relation to the rapidity of increase of the blinds – both in time and size.â€
Also, we know that increasing blinds tend to drive action and cause players to be busted out. Think of online “speed tournaments†that take about an hour to plough through 500 players.
But, is there another force at work? Is there something OTHER than rate of increase and length of lever that drives action?
Suppose the blinds never go up. Will the tournament end? Yes. It will. This will be the maximum “skill based†tournament but the tournament WILL end. In theory it could go in forever, but in practice it will not. It will end. Why? Why do players ever get busted? Clearly it is because they put their money into the pot believing they have an edge. When one player goes broke, at least one player has made a mistake in the hand. In other words, if the cards were face up, nobody would ever go broke. This is the OTHER force at work. One is the escalation of the blinds (time and size) and the other is human foible.
So what? Well, probably that’s right. Probably, there is no point. This is, I think, a tautology.
Continuing nonetheless…
Since we cannot control tournament speed (level length and rate of increase) the only thing we CAN control is human foible. And, broadly speaking I here arbitrarily define three types of errors: (1) Simple errors; (2) Intermediate errors; and (3) World Class Errors.
Simple errors are mistakes that REALLY ought to be avoided. Simple mistakes.
Intermediate errors are mistakes that OUGHT to be avoided, but are not necessarily that easy to avoid. Folding top pair on a non-threatening board, for instance.
And, World Class Errors are those amazing plays that players at the very top are capable of making, but the rest of us simply call and then announce (later in the bar): “Well, there was nothing I could do.â€
What this also means is that the overall tournament speed is, in part, controlled by the rate at which “intermediate errors and world class errors†are encountered. By random distribution of cards, there is X frequency of these difficult situations. And, difficult situations are the ones in which a player tends to go broke.
If YOUR frequency of difficult situations is LESS than the field, then you will tend to outperform the field.
So… all of this is a long winded way of arriving at another obvious truth: Do not put yourself in difficult situations and you will do well in the long run.
Play in such as way as to avoid tough decisions. And, learn to recognize that THIS IS A DIFFICULT SITUATION. When you find yourself in a difficult situation, consider simply getting out of harms way.
The nature of poker tournaments
I spent a lot of time working out a new blind structure for Casino Regina (I sent it to them unsolicited because I have some concerns about the Tex’s Tears structure in BIG events like the one that they are planning for July). This exercise caused me to spend some time thinking about blind structures and how it tournaments are run.
So, suppose that you had a tournament in which the blinds doubled EVERY hand. This will, of course, be an extremely fast action tournament in which skill will matter very little. Now, suppose you had a tournament in which the blinds doubled every level, but levels were 20 hours long. Even though the blinds are doubling, this would be slower than the WSOP Championship event. So, to state the obvious: “The skill overlay in a tournament is diminished in relation to the rapidity of increase of the blinds – both in time and size.â€
Also, we know that increasing blinds tend to drive action and cause players to be busted out. Think of online “speed tournaments†that take about an hour to plough through 500 players.
But, is there another force at work? Is there something OTHER than rate of increase and length of lever that drives action?
Suppose the blinds never go up. Will the tournament end? Yes. It will. This will be the maximum “skill based†tournament but the tournament WILL end. In theory it could go in forever, but in practice it will not. It will end. Why? Why do players ever get busted? Clearly it is because they put their money into the pot believing they have an edge. When one player goes broke, at least one player has made a mistake in the hand. In other words, if the cards were face up, nobody would ever go broke. This is the OTHER force at work. One is the escalation of the blinds (time and size) and the other is human foible.
So what? Well, probably that’s right. Probably, there is no point. This is, I think, a tautology.
Continuing nonetheless…
Since we cannot control tournament speed (level length and rate of increase) the only thing we CAN control is human foible. And, broadly speaking I here arbitrarily define three types of errors: (1) Simple errors; (2) Intermediate errors; and (3) World Class Errors.
Simple errors are mistakes that REALLY ought to be avoided. Simple mistakes.
Intermediate errors are mistakes that OUGHT to be avoided, but are not necessarily that easy to avoid. Folding top pair on a non-threatening board, for instance.
And, World Class Errors are those amazing plays that players at the very top are capable of making, but the rest of us simply call and then announce (later in the bar): “Well, there was nothing I could do.â€
What this also means is that the overall tournament speed is, in part, controlled by the rate at which “intermediate errors and world class errors†are encountered. By random distribution of cards, there is X frequency of these difficult situations. And, difficult situations are the ones in which a player tends to go broke.
If YOUR frequency of difficult situations is LESS than the field, then you will tend to outperform the field.
So… all of this is a long winded way of arriving at another obvious truth: Do not put yourself in difficult situations and you will do well in the long run.
Play in such as way as to avoid tough decisions. And, learn to recognize that THIS IS A DIFFICULT SITUATION. When you find yourself in a difficult situation, consider simply getting out of harms way.
Comments
Yup.
A good reminder.
I will be repeating this to myself as I play tonight. Then I will be taking a couple days off from playing, and hit the books during that time..
Dave- I have taken your advice to my sng play. (ok, its only the 5 +.50 on stars..), but, have found April to be a solid month.
Sometimes the simplest reminders are the best. (and a hell of a lot easier to remember than the math.)
I'm finding, given enough time, other's will make that "World Class error"...i'm still prone to it too, but, at least for this month, the shoe has been on the other foot.
Keep writing Dave, its worth the read in my opinion.