NCAA March Madness Pool 2023 - $20

moosemoose
edited March 2023 in Off Topic Lounge
https://picks.cbssports.com/college-basketball/ncaa-tournament/bracket/pools/kbxw63b2gy3tanzwgyza====?pool-join-key=613i0f23pn4e6zrwml92uv5mo8bxqhxz&invited-by=ivxhi4tzhiytamrtgqydsnby&via-medium=copy&ttag=FF22_lk_cbssports_cbb_bpm_copySetupInvite

Group password is kw (use invite link above)

Entry Deadline is 11 am Mar. 16 - you must submit your picks online through the link above and pay me in person or via emt in advance. emt not accepted after 12 noon.

$20

PM for emt info.



Scoring is:
0 pts for playin games
1 pt round of 32
2 pt round of 16
3 pt round of 8
4 pt final 4
5 pt finalists
6 pt champion

Tie breaker is total points scored in final.

Paid
1. moose
2. Trigs
3. STG
4. Grail
5. Moose311
6. Datamn
7. thisorthat
8. Gayle
9. acidjoe
10.



Entry Deadline is 11 am Mar. 16

Pd. (not entered)
1.

Not Paid
1.
2.
3.
4.


Prize Distribution
< 10 WTA
10-15 80/20
> 15 60/30/10
«1

Comments

  • trigstrigs
    I'm in. I'll give you the $20 on Saturday.
  • moose311moose311
    When I try to join the group, it says "Whoops! Wrong link. Ask your pool manager for an invite from their pool's 'Invite Friends' tab."
  • moosemoose
    Try this link

    https://picks.cbssports.com/college-basketball/ncaa-tournament/bracket/pools/kbxw63b2haydomjzgiya====?pool-join-key=6p3o0t2zpw4p6rrlma9uuh5yolb7q3x0&invited-by=ivxhi4tzhiytenjqg4ytcnrv&via-medium=copy&ttag=FF23_lk_cbssports_cbb_bpm_copySetupInvite
    moose311
  • AcidJoeAcidJoe
    I am in. DM EMT payment info
  • thisORthatthisORthat
    intrigued DM sent
  • AcidJoeAcidJoe
    DM sent
  • thisORthatthisORthat
    hmmm not certain if this one of those 'secret ballot' type things;
    not exactly the "Monty Carlo method'---picked mainly longshots against all strangeness (odds wordplay)?

    e8rie9vjud6l.png
  • moosemoose
    20 min warning.
  • moosemoose
    edited March 2023
    Looks like we hit 10 entries this year so will be paying top 2

    Oops only 9, counted myself twice. WINNER TAKE ALL!
  • moosemoose
    My bracket is busted already!
    thisORthat
  • compueasecompuease Admin
    Can we follow along anywhere if if we're not in?
  • thisORthatthisORthat
    moose wrote: »
    My bracket is busted already!

    Princeton vs AZ was a major 15 vs 2 upset for my bracket. One of the only picks where I went with the odds.
  • DataMnDataMn
    compuease wrote: »
    Can we follow along anywhere if if we're not in?

    I'll post my usual updates starting after today, when half the games will have been played.
    I'll start with simulations ('flip a coin method'), and then once the weekend is done and there is only 32,768 possibilities left then I can start to post more in-depth scenarios
    compueasetrigs
  • DataMnDataMn
    In the meantime, if you flipped a coin for the remainder of the games, here is the equity for each player...
    Steve 30.27%
    Joe 18.44%
    Allen 13.04%
    Joanne 9.98%
    Gayle 9.38%
    Henri 7.63%
    Kevin 6.29%
    Rob 3.52%
    Jamie 1.45%
    thisORthatcompuease
  • DataMnDataMn
    After Day 2... Joe got hurt the most by the Purdue loss
    After 10M simulations (coin flip method)
    Steve 27.85%
    Allen 17.68%
    Gayle 15.98%
    Joe 12.56%
    Joanne 10.93%
    Kevin 6.18%
    Rob 5.62%
    Henri 2.13%
    Jamie 1.07%
  • DataMnDataMn
    The real stats for those following at home...
    Name/Points/Max Possible
    Allen 25/97
    Steve 24/105
    Kevin 24/96
    Joanne 23/97
    Rob 23/97
    Joe 23/87
    Gayle 22/104
    Jamie 20/94
    Henri 18/56
  • compueasecompuease Admin
    Al, I really admire your brain that you can do all this. It makes by head ache to even think of it.

    By the way when you go to your Scrabble competition, whenever that is, is there a way for us to follow along?
  • DataMnDataMn
    After the Kansas loss, we have lost some players...
    After 6M simulations (coin-flip method)
    Steve 50.31%
    Allen 21.60%
    Rob 11.50%
    Gayle 5.62%
    Joe 4.45%
    Joanne 3.48%
    Henri 3.04%

    I can't guarantee that Kevin and Jamie have been eliminated, but after 6M simulations no path has been found for victory.
  • DataMnDataMn
    compuease wrote: »
    By the way when you go to your Scrabble competition, whenever that is, is there a way for us to follow along?

    There will be some coverage on Twitch, but it will most likely only be the top tables, so it is doubtful I will be in one of those games unless I am put there by random in the first couple of rounds.

    I will post the link to follow the standings here just before the tournament.

  • woog30woog30
    Similar to poker @SeekTheGrail doesn't play unless he is 30% ahead.
  • compueasecompuease Admin
    DataMn wrote: »
    There will be some coverage on Twitch, but it will most likely only be the top tables, so it is doubtful I will be in one of those games unless I am put there by random in the first couple of rounds.

    I will post the link to follow the standings here just before the tournament.
    But surely they will broadcast the final table that you will be at...

  • DataMnDataMn
    With 23 games remaining, I am able to do an exhaustive search:
    All 8,388,608 scenarios:
    Steve: 53.30%
    Allen: 24.25%
    Rob: 11.14%
    Gayle: 6.07%
    Joe: 3.08%
    Joanne: 2.12%
    Henri: 0.04%
    Kevin and Jamie are confirmed as fully eliminated.
    thisORthat
  • DataMnDataMn
    The UK/KState game on right now looks to be a big swing game...

    If UK wins it goes Steve 63.58%, Allen 28.37%, Rob 1.57%
    If Kansas State wins it goes Steve 41.94%, Allen 19.5%, Rob 18.5%
  • moosemoose
    The bs shooting foul on the KS guard when he was clearly passing was key to the KS swing in momentum late in the game. After that KU trailed for the rest of the game.
  • DataMnDataMn
    Standings after round 2...

    Name - Points - Max Poss Points
    Allen - 43 - 86
    Rob - 43 - 83
    Joanne - 43 - 77
    Steve - 42 - 92
    Gayle - 40 - 86
    Kevin - 40 - 76
    Jamie - 38 - 69
    Joe - 37 - 66
    Henri - 28 - 49

    Of the 32,768 paths remaining, here is the number of paths to victory for each player:
    Steve - 30.38% win outright, 31.83% equity overall
    Allen - 27.47% win outright, 30.7% equity overall
    Rob - 11.43% win outright, 12.33% equity overall
    Gayle - 9.92% win outright, 11.69% equity overall
    Joanne - 5.87% win outright, 8.9% equity overall
    Joe - 4.1% win outright, 4.44% equity overall
    Henri - 0.0% win outright, 0.12% equity overall
  • DataMnDataMn
    There is only 1 way for someone to claim the pool outright by Friday night...

    Of course, I would have to have all of the following happen...
    Alabama over San Diego St
    FAU over Tennessee
    Michigan St over Kansas St
    Miami over Houston
    Arkansas over UConn
    UCLA over Gonzaga
    compuease
  • DataMnDataMn
    edited March 2023
    Here are the equities after each of the paths for tomorrow's games, in order...
    KSTATE - ARK - FAU - GONZAG Joanne 46.29%, Rob 36.52%, Joe 10.94%, Gayle 6.25%
    KSTATE - ARK - FAU - UCLA Allen 66.34%, Rob 17.7%, Joanne 15.95%
    KSTATE - ARK - TENN - GONZAG Steve 39.26%, Joanne 33.98%, Rob 12.3%, Joe 8.20%, Gayle 6.25%
    KSTATE - ARK - TENN - UCLA Allen 57.13%, Steve 33.0%, Joanne 9.86%
    KSTATE - UCONN - FAU - GONZAG Gayle 32.81%, Rob 24.61%, Joe 10.94%, Joanne 6.15%, Allen 1.56%
    KSTATE - UCONN - TENN - GONZAG Steve 75.7%, Gayle 14.03%, Joe 5.47%, Joanne 3.48%, Allen 1.32%
    MICHST - ARK - FAU - GONZAG Rob 49.02%, Gayle 16.7%, Joe 10.94%, Allen 3.13%, Henri 0.68%
    MICHST - ARK - FAU - UCLA Allen 81.05%, Rob 17.77%, Henri 1.17%
    MICHST - ARK - TENN - GONZAG Steve 58.54%, Rob 13.72%, Gayle 10.99%, Joe 8.2%, Joanne 5.91%, Allen 2.64%
    MICHST - ARK - TENN - UCLA Allen 66.99%, Steve 33.01%
    MICHST - UCONN - FAU - GONZAG Gayle 35.92%, Rob 25.54%, Steve 23.93%, Joe 10.94%, Allen 2.62%, Joanne 1.06%
    MICHST - UCONN - TENN - GONZAG Steve 77.59%, Gayle 15.33%, Joe 5.47%, Allen 1.51%, Joanne 0.2%
    ANY - UCONN - FAU - UCLA Allen 57.23%. Steve 23.83%, Gayle 18.95%
    ANY - UCONN - TENN - UCLA Steve 48.39%, Allen 46.19%, Gayle 5.42%
  • moosemoose
    FAU FAU FAU!
  • moosemoose
    Mich st OT baby!
  • moosemoose
    Boo Mich st

    Hoot hoot! OWLS!
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