Hand for discussion
This is a hand from my experience at last year’s WSOP Championship. I was happy with the way that I played the hand, but I have had second thoughts. Your opinion please…
You are a big stack of 100,000. The average stack is about 40,000. The blinds are 500-1000 and there is an ante of 200 (each lap is costing you 3500).
It is folded to you in the cutoff. You hold A-8o. The button and small blinds are rocks with big stacks. The big blind is a world class professional, widely regarded as one of the best players in the world, also with a big stack. And, you have been playing a lot of hands. You are, by long and away, the most aggressive player at the table.
What do you do? Why?
Assume that you raise to 3,000. The big blind calls. The flop is A-9-8. The A-9 are suited. The big blind checks. What do you do? Why?
Assume you bet 10,000 and the big blind check-raises you to 40,000 what do you do? Why?
(my latest poker log is now on my site).
You are a big stack of 100,000. The average stack is about 40,000. The blinds are 500-1000 and there is an ante of 200 (each lap is costing you 3500).
It is folded to you in the cutoff. You hold A-8o. The button and small blinds are rocks with big stacks. The big blind is a world class professional, widely regarded as one of the best players in the world, also with a big stack. And, you have been playing a lot of hands. You are, by long and away, the most aggressive player at the table.
What do you do? Why?
Assume that you raise to 3,000. The big blind calls. The flop is A-9-8. The A-9 are suited. The big blind checks. What do you do? Why?
Assume you bet 10,000 and the big blind check-raises you to 40,000 what do you do? Why?
(my latest poker log is now on my site).
Comments
One question which I think is sometimes overlooked...what is your stack size compared to the table?
If your table has the same distribution as the tourney >>> I'm feeling good right now.
I raise the normal 3 BB outs. Keeps my aggressive image...leaves me with a hand I can throw away if reraised. I love to raise against ROCKS...since they will usually tell you what kind of hand they have by their action.
BINGO!!! I fire out a pot size bet. What range did you have the ROCK in? I'm a little worried about 88 and 99 but think that the ROCK would have fired back at you with almost any above average hand ... due to your image. Basically, I'm looking to make the drawing hands to disappear or get as much money as I can against a weaker hand.
I am pushing unless I am possitive they only make this play with a set. I think that most made hands would have made a protection bet. I'm guessing the ROCK is trying to use their image to push me off my hand (due to my image). I'm probably best right now and do not really want to see another card.
I think that the WCP had you pegged as loose aggressive and thought that they would be able to make a steal here. Interested to see the results.
:fish:
I would probably fold, but honestly it would depend a lot on what gear I was currently in. You say you have been playing very aggressively lately. Eventually, the WCPs you are stealing from will engage their re-steal package against you.
Even if I was in a super aggressive mode against rocky blinds, I don't care for open-stealing with an Ace when the stacks are very deep. (On a short stack, this is a strong hand to get the money in with against only the button and blinds.) I'd almost rather have a Hansen/Negreanu style hand (e.g. rag-rag suited) when initiating a steal when the stacks are deep against a WCP.
Check.
This is not a slowplay. That is to say, I am not checking here with the purpose of letting my opponent catch up. I want to see if the turn card looks bad for me.
Though not a slowplay, this play adds some deception to the hand in a way related to slowplaying. Your opponent would probably not expect you to check behind him/her on a scary looking board with any kind of a real hand. That is, he/she would probably not expect you to slowplay here.
The real intention I would have by checking behind on the flop is to set off major league alarm bells in the WCPs mind: What is Dave "The Ramblin' Maniac" doing checking behind me on the flop? When you are an ultra-aggressive, you can send a very strong message of strength by checking now and then.
I realize that this seems like "weak means strong" pushed well beyond the point of being cliche, but I like what it accomplishes here. What are the outcomes?
1. Your WCP opponent actually does read you for genuine strength. Perhaps if he/she was setting you up for a big re-steal move, this plan will be aborted, and you can get away from a tricky spot with minimal damage.
2. Your WCP opponent will smell weekness and make a big move at the pot on the turn or river. This is where your position comes in handy. That is, you can guarantee seeing the turn card for free before your opponent gets a chance to make the move.
If it's a scary looking card, and your opponent still goes ahead and makes a move on you, then that's a nice play. If you are in fact moved off the best hand on the turn, what's the big deal? Bye-bye 3,200 chips and next hand please.
On the other hand, if a nice looking (for you) card comes off on the turn and the WCP fires away, you can continue on with the hand likely having your opponent in a spot where he probably thinks you have some kind of marginal hand, like a bad Ace. This doesn't mean I wouldn't make an aggressive move on the turn, but slowplaying would now also be a reasonable avenue.
Does all of this make you think that I'd be deathly afraid1 of going up against a WCP who has a big, deep chip stack? If so, nice read. :cool:
Move all-in.
Here, your table image is what counts. I would think that your WCP opponent would play a big hand (that is, one which beats your two pair) more slowly here, knowing that you are an ultra-aggressive.
At this point, I'd put the BB on either a fairly big Ace, like AQ or AJ, or a stone cold re-steal. I actually wouldn't mind him/her folding the former, which I think there is a reasonable chance he/she might do.
BTW, great hand for analysis. I've pretty much been racking my brain on this one continuously since it was posted, and I'm looking forward to reading everyone's comments on it.
ScottyZ
1I'm not talking about being "afraid" in emotional terms (i.e., as opposed to being courageous and daring). I mean the poker scenario makes me deathly afraid from a theoretical point of view.
I'm wondering if the opponent has a pair nine but is pushing hard for fear of a flush draw... ?
Dave said: The flop is A-9-8. The A-9 are suited.
What was I worried about? If has have A-A, A-9, 9-9, or 8-8 I am in a dark an lonely place. But, does he have any of those hands? A-9, 9-9, and 8-8 did not seem likely to me. I felt that with any of those hands he would have re-raised pre-flop. None of those hands are going to be too happy to too many flops against a lost and aggressive player with position. Those three hands prefer to win pre-flop since the option of being out of position with a weak hand is not very palatable. So, possible, but not likely.
A-A? Definitely a possibility. Would he c/r with A-A? Maybe. I could not discount this play, but the hand is somewhat unlikely since I have an ace and it would, also, have been an unusual way to play the hand. Want to make a ton with your A-A then bet it out on the flop. You can only make a big score if I have a hand. So, be out, hope I raise and THEN move in. Trapping me perfectly.
What about a big ace? Also possible, but also not my probable pick. A hand like A-Q or A-J would, I think, have re-raised pre-flop (see my comments about A-9, 9-9, and 8-8). Not that this matters too much since I am happy to get all in against a big ace.
What about a semi-bluff? This seemed the most likely to me at the time.
After going through the possibilities I decided that I very likely had the best hand and I moved in. Harrington called with 8-5s and beat me with a flush on the turn. (The actual hand is described in my log from 2004).
After a lot of thinking, what if I just call his c/r? Since I have him (most likely) on a draw, there is no reasonable draw that will not be getting enough odds to call my all-in bet. Thus, I KNOW that he will call unless he is on a pure bluff. So, what if I just call? Now what does he do?
A call clearly tells him one of two things: (1) I have a draw that I am willing to go with; or (2) I have a hand that I think MIGHT be the best.
If he has one of the big hands that beat me, he bets again, I call and I go bust. So sad, too bad, there was nothing to be done anyway because I am NOT laying this hand down on the flop.
If he has a big ace, he bets again, I call and I win the pot. Woohoo.
If he has a big draw and he misses the turn, what does he do? I don't think he can move in when he misses. I have shown a lot of willingness to play the hand. He has to believe that I am calling. So, he probably checks and then I move in on him and he is not getting the odds to draw for his flush.
If he has a big draw that hits, he moves in. Can I now fold? Maybe. When he moves in on the turn it is with (1) A huge hand made on the flop; (2) A draw that just hit; or (3) A big ace. I might have folded. I think I SHOULD fold the turn if he moves in. I might have been confinement enough to do so (not being in the moment, it's always hard to know).
This hand could have been, I think, the power of "a call with position." It is a sick feeling when, holding a marginal hand, you c/r someone and they call. Gulp. Now what? I am, more and more, adding the "call with position" weapon to my arsenal. This may have been a good place to deploy it.
With respect, this play I do not like. As Mike Caro so aptly taught me: "Do what they expect you to do." In this case, he expects me to take a shot at the pot with a bet on the flop. Thus, he will take a shot back with some farily weak hands. The trap works best with a bet on the flop.
And, yes, it is terrifying to play against WCP's when the chips are deep. Terrifying.
You'd be offerring him pot odds of around 1.5 to 1 in you moved all-in on the flop. (60K to call to win almost 90K)
For a flush draw or straight draw with no additional outs, these seem like insufficient odds to call. Are you putting him on a superior draw than one of the standard draws?
ScottyZ
+
My flop bet 10,000
+
His c/r 40,000
+
My remaining 87,000
Pot total: 145,500
He has to call 47,000
He is getting close to 3-1.
Thanks for fixing up the numbers. :cool:
ScottyZ
I've got no excuse since I was completely sober at the time, and have multiple mathematics degrees. I dare not try to count them at this point.
It was more of a poker mistake rather than a numbers mistake. I just forgot to count the new portion of your bet (i.e. your "raise by" amount) as being in the pot. Duh!
This made me think of this sort of exchange, a la "Kill Bill":
Dave: "You didn't think calculating pot odds would be that easy, did you?"
ScottyZ: "You know. For a second there. I kinda did."
Okay, to bring the thread back to something other than me with the dunce cap on, what do you think of the way Harrington played the hand?
ScottyZ
He makes a 14 out semi-bluff c/r against a player who could have damn near anything in his hand. He gets REALLY unlucky to discover that I have a hand. A hand which, in fact, has five of his outs tied up (fives and eights are no good to him). He is A LOT worse off than he thought, but he makes a calculated and bold play against a player who is likely to fold a VERY high percentage of the time.
Dan's play is a lesson in, "Be careful who you screw with." I picked the wrong guy and got very lucky against him.
Me too.
It first struck me as a little weird that he is pushing a lot of money in there in a situation where he would be a coin flip at best (but probably also having a good chance of being a coin flip at worst) if called. Then I realized that this is a completely incorrect way to think about his play.
You've already nailed the key idea of course: there is an enormous chance that you will fold. It's a strong play with his current holding in particular, because he still has a very reasonable backup hand if called (another idea from his book) which is rarely in bad shape.
ScottyZ
There were so many different hand examples that I forget: did he include this specific hand in the book?
Ok, what is the image like? What have my steals been raising wise and what have my monsters look like?
Lately I have been doing alot of low raising with monsters (3xBB, 2XBB) which allows me to pick up blinds with weaker hands without laying alot on weaker cards and fearing calls. Sometimes I flip up AA sometimes I get away with 23o. But it tends to cost me very little and you get 23 alot more the the AA.
Ok 3000 isn't much if the BB is a world class professional and your the aggressive 'riverstar'. So did you really want the call? I can not see him not calling with any paint, an ace etc. Would he put you on a pure steal? you are in the cutoff seat and everyone folded (and you are aggressive). Does he think he can outplay you on the flop?
3000 just doesn't do it for me unless you have set it up some other way prior or you want him to call.
So now your into the flop, and you have a MONSTER based on the preflop right? What else could you have hoped for? You wanted a call and you got the flop you want. I would be betting big here there is 8100 in the middle already, you want to show some strength.
Otherwise you are setting him up to take this pot away, unless you want him to try and steal the pot and you can put him on making that move. So if I feel he would try and take it away from me then I bet medium (feigning weakness)l hoping for a check raise.
The hands I am afraid of here are 88, 99, AA, A9. The flush draw doesn't really matter unless he has TJ or 67 suited., as you are so far ahead you can push a flush draw around.
We can eliminate 88, 99, AA no reraise on a 3x BB raise preflop? the under pair doesnt hold up well against over cards. Why wouldn't he take it preflop? (there is 5K in the pot before it gets to him) and AA Im sure you see a reraise, does he really want you to be table captian? He has a chance here to slap you when trying to steal his blinds.
This is what you wanted right? 10k didnt that set this up? Based on that I am moving in here, how much better of a flop did you want? Wait what is he doing?
40k is half your stack with 20k in the middle. Does he think you'll call? You have been aggressive all day, does he think your bluffing?
Would he try and push with any paired ace?
It comes back to your betting, realistically what does your 3x and pot match mean to him. What does he push you off with?
Would he do this with as little as a str draw? An Ace with no paired kicker? What about a set how would he have played it? And the hand that seems likely is TJ or 67 suited. How much would he push based on your image?
What can you represent here? Would you be just as likely to hold AA, 88 or 99 with those bets?
So what will he do if I move all in? Will he give up the 40K?
If you call, how much will he bet? Or will a call hold him off and let you check this down or get away from it later?
You can afford to give up the 13K, but should you? You might be golden here!
So without other information, you really dont know if your beat.
I find out by reraising to 60K., that still leaves me 35K Avg stack. If I have to give it up Im not dead. He has to give me credit for something, so he may fold and if he calls he probably checks the turn, unless Im beat in which he will bet the turn and I run away. (maybe depending on the bet
- if he moves all in he has a set, A9, or the str & flush draw. All of which have you beat, you give it up. He is world class, is he going to risk his tournamentr on anything less? He has to give you credit with the reraise even though it isn't much (almost looks like a value reraise)
- Of course I'm banking that a 'world class' professional isnt going to risk everything when you have shown strength. Your pot commited so a bad call by you " the not so famous, not so world class player' maybe expected on his part so you can probably get a check through the end. Having not played the likes of Phil Ivey, Annie Duke or Lederer... Im making a big assumption here.
I hope you post what you did.
How do you account for that? Your image is so loose an aggressive you get called with a draw for everything. I cant see how a 'WCP' does this unless he thinks your so full of shit that his 8's might be good. I understand the re-raise to 40k. But this would be day 3 right and he calls everything? How much have you advertised when your good?
So the 3x BB raise, I guess that makes you vulnerable. Did you want a caller preflop?
I would love your input as I am at a spot where people are taking shots at me with long draws. Because I build this image, I manage to place about 70% cause Im pounding and pounding out small wins. but when I am getting knocked down it is when someone takes a naked straight or flush draw to the end with me and hits. Which I understand happens, but when your up against those draws for ALOT of chips, you lose 1/3 of the time, and I tend to lose the ability to make someone fold them.
Hence I am reraising more, pushing all in alot less and its working but do you have any other strategies?