bad time to steal

Kweejibo

So i was in Saskatoon recently for a hold-em limit tournament. Blinds are 500-1000 and i have 9500 chips. Pretty tight table, alot of blind stealing going on. I'm second from the button looking at A-2 off and decide to try for a steal. every1 folds, BB calls. Flop comes 3 4 7 rainbow. BB checks, I bet, he raises to 2000. This only leaves him with 200, so i know it'll cost me another 1200 to see the river. Now i know i'm beat, but am I pot commited to try and draw out my gutshot?

pkrfce9

With all his money in, you'd be looking at something just over 6 to 1 pot odds.

I'm hoping he wouldn't have called a pre-flop raise with 56. He *could* be bluffing. Maybe your Ace-high is the best hand right now.

At best I'd guess he's got an overpair, so you have maybe 7 outs to beat him. So the pot is maybe just giving you enough odds to justify the call. Add in a factor for the bluff (depending on the player and the situation) and the odds are probably good.

You aren't truly pot committed. Very nearly but you could still walk away and wait for a better chance. I would be inclined to call.

Dave Scharf

Nothing wrong with your pre-flop raise (more on this at the bottom).

Nothing wrong with your flop bet. You may have the best hand.

When he c/r you, you are being offered 1200 intp a pot of 7700 (2000+2000+500+1000+2200) for 6.4-1. It's very close. If your only out is the gutshot then you are not getting enough odds (if he has A-7 you are bout 16% to win) 5.25 - 1.

If your ace is also good then you have enough odds (if he has K-7 you are 27% to win) 3-1.

In other words, you are in a close situation. If you fold you have 6500 chips left.

I favour folding. 6500 is still OK in this tournament. It is a very fast action tournament at this point (and will remain so until the end). Doubling through your 6500 stack will give you lots of chips.

As a side note, I remember the hand. I had the player who c/r you down as VERY tight. Adding good reason to fold. In fact, he was so tight that later at the final table with blinds of 1000-2000 and only 1200 behind he folded his BB to a raise. That is too tight. That is a call blind situation. I thought he folded because he was planning on folding his SB and wait the lap trying to move up the ladder, but no, he called his last 200 in the next hand as the small blind. He had 7-7 for a set?

Also, nice to "meet" you. Welcome to the fourm. I thought you played well. So, what did you have when I showed you my 9-6?

_______________

More on raising pre-flop with A-2...

There are lots of times in a tournament where you have a hand that is too good to simply fold, but you really don't want any action. A hand like K-To on the button or A-2. Raising is OK. You very possibly have the best hand. But, you really HATE action because there are almost no flops that you will be happy with.

I think it is OK to fold this hand in the situation you have. With 9500 you have a serious stack. Knocking yourself down is really yucky. And, the table is tightening up so you are less likely to have a bunch of folks beating up your blinds.

It's close in my mind. Although, I would defiantely have moved on THIS big blind because he was, I think, too tight.

Kweejibo

I's nice too meet you too. As for the hand where you showed me 6 9, I had 10 5. I was new too the table and trying to get a feel for your play. I had notived you steal a few blinds and was wondering how well you played when someone put the pressure on your blinds. Needless to say I learned a quick lesson on who you were and was quickly able to finally put a face to the name.
I look forward playing with you again, hopefully in the near future.