Locate the -EV move

A local card club moved to a new location and today was there first day in operation at the new place. game is 4/8 limit but a NL game also some how started (never happened before) but i didn't play in it.


On the table i was up $100 at the end of the night, but really the results were a bit skewed down because i played a bit reckless for a while after the following hand.



EP Limps
Hero in LP Raises with AJ spades
Button Reraises
Limper calls
Hero calls

Button (Loose agressive)
EP Limper (ABC, weak)

Flop Q94 (top two in spades)

EP checks
Hero Bets (nut flush draw, overcard)
Button calls
EP calls

Turn (ten of spades)

EP checks
Hero Bets (nut flush)
Button calls
EP calls

River (King of spades)

I realize that i made a ROYAL FLUSH!!!!!!!

EP Bets
Hero (politely tells EP that i'm going to raise but he really shouldn't call)

I show down my Royal Flush and take $700 from the jackpot for making a royal flush with both cards from my hand.


Now i realize advising people not to call is not likely a good EV move, but the worst EV move possible was me betting the turn. I think the adrenaline just got me and i bet. If no one calls my bet on the turn (unlikely but who knows) ... i don't see the river and i lose out on the jackpot.

Ironically, and this is odd I was up against a flopped set (Button) ... who played it really passively and EP made two pair on the river.

Button said he was going to pop me on the turn, but the flush card came and i bet out and he figured me to have the flush.

Tip the dealer, and play a bit crazy for a while, blowing $100 then tighten back up once the adrenaline has worn off and book a session on the plus side ... oh and $700 from the jackpot :)

Comments

  • Congrats!
    Very nice..... Glad to hear about a nice score!
    Curious about the card club though.
    Is this a legal/legit place? Or are there underground clubs with jackpots?

    Thanks
  • Well it's a legit place but legal well that's a different story.

    i think most places run jackpots, $1 out of each pot etc...
    this place does a combo Bad Beat/Royal/Straight Flush jackpot. Hitting the royal gives you 20% of the current pot
  • Now i realize advising people not to call is not likely a good EV move, but the worst EV move possible was me betting the turn. I think the adrenaline just got me and i bet. If no one calls my bet on the turn (unlikely but who knows) ... i don't see the river and i lose out on the jackpot.

    Lets do the math!

    You need 1 card out of the 47 left to make the royal to win $700...
    (1/47)*700 = $14 in EV.

    If you expect to get even a single caller down to the river, thats $16 in EV and the better play.

    Lets also not forget the times when you check the nut flush and the board pairs costing you the pot.

    The REAL -EV move is if you need to showdown the royal to win the jackpot and you raised a guy on the river.
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