What are the odds?

MackeMacke
in General Poker Chat
So just got thinking of this hand after reading about the guy at the WSOP who folded quads face up.

My worst bad beat ever was when my Straight Flush lost to the higher straight flush both hole cards used.. sadly it was in a freeroll and not in a 1/2 game to win the 500k bad beat that the casinos will have out here.

Just got me thinking how improbable is that?

For the record it was my 45 of spades vs his 910 of spades (duh)

Comments

  • UBetIFoldUBetIFold
    Pretty sick beat. Even sicker that it didn't happen in a casino cash game with a BBJ.
  • Card DeadCard Dead
    Gee, if only there were someone on this forum who knew the answers to such challenging questions and could offer us an answer.

    Oh wait, there is, and maybe if we all say his name 3 times he will answer our pleas.

    Let's see... Blondefish! Blondefish! Blondefish!
  • Toronto PimpToronto Pimp
    That was the quad 7's that folded face up ??

    That table was about 4 tables away from me. There was a french guy (with a european mullet) sitting directly to the left of the guy that folded the quads and we played together part of day 2. He came over after and said that the dealer was pitching the cards a little high they could see some of the cards coming out......they did ask the dealer to lower his hands while dealing but i guess it didn't work. The speculation was that the guy that folded may have seen one or both of the queen ten of spades. he did say an hour later that he had the straight flush.
  • T8urmoneyT8urmoney
    Toronto Pimp wrote: »
    That was the quad 7's that folded face up ??

    That table was about 4 tables away from me. There was a french guy (with a european mullet) sitting directly to the left of the guy that folded the quads and we played together part of day 2. He came over after and said that the dealer was pitching the cards a little high they could see some of the cards coming out......they did ask the dealer to lower his hands while dealing but i guess it didn't work. The speculation was that the guy that folded may have seen one or both of the queen ten of spades. he did say an hour later that he had the straight flush.

    that makes more sense....the guy that folded won a 3k PLO bracelet this year.....so not terrible.....I mean, as terrible as you'd have to be to fold quads
  • BfillmaffBfillmaff
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Bslp2aY6AU
  • pkrfce9pkrfce9
    Bfillmaff wrote: »
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Bslp2aY6AU
    C'mon man. A gif would have sufficed.

    Sent from my SM-N910W8 using Tapatalk
  • DataMnDataMn
    Assuming 9 players see all 5 cards, and looking for the worst case scenario (straight flush over straight flush, each using 2 cards)

    There are 33,120 possible boards out of 2,598,960 that have three suited cards in a row, but none of the same suit 2 cards in either direction. (1.27%)

    When one of the above flops happens there is a 0.8295% chance that one of the 9 players will have the two higher suited cards for the straight flush: 1 - [(1 - 2 / 47 * 1/46) ^ 9]

    When one of the 9 hands has the top end of the straight flush there is a 0.80523% chance that one of the remaining 8 players will have the two lower cards for the straight flush: 1 - [(1 - 2/45 * 1/44) ^ 8]

    Putting it all together, the chance of this worst case scenario is a 0.012744 * 0.008295 * 0.0080523 = 0.000000851179

    = ~ 1 chance in 1,174,841 hands


    But, looking at it another way - if you have the two low cards for a straight flush, there is a 0.80523% chance that one of the other 8 players at the table will have the top 2 cards for the straight flush (1 chance in 124)
  • MackeMacke
    DataMn wrote: »
    Assuming 9 players see all 5 cards, and looking for the worst case scenario (straight flush over straight flush, each using 2 cards)

    There are 33,120 possible boards out of 2,598,960 that have three suited cards in a row, but none of the same suit 2 cards in either direction. (1.27%)

    When one of the above flops happens there is a 0.8295% chance that one of the 9 players will have the two higher suited cards for the straight flush: 1 - [(1 - 2 / 47 * 1/46) ^ 9]

    When one of the 9 hands has the top end of the straight flush there is a 0.80523% chance that one of the remaining 8 players will have the two lower cards for the straight flush: 1 - [(1 - 2/45 * 1/44) ^ 8]

    Putting it all together, the chance of this worst case scenario is a 0.012744 * 0.008295 * 0.0080523 = 0.000000851179

    <b>= ~ 1 chance in 1,174,841 hands</b>


    But, looking at it another way - if you have the two low cards for a straight flush, there is a 0.80523% chance that one of the other 8 players at the table will have the top 2 cards for the straight flush (1 chance in 124)


    Does that "So you're saying there's a chance" phrase works here? lol...
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