Interesting Blackjack situation. WWYD?

JohnnieHJohnnieH
in Off Topic Lounge
I know this is a poker forum (in theory) but I would like some opinions/feedback/math analysis on this interesting situation came up at work yesterday. What would you do?

Here's the setup: The player in question is playing HU at a table,(no other players) while betting $25 on a single box. The dealer (not me, I was on break) deals out a 2, an Ace to himself, then a Jack to the player and finally places the down card under the Ace. Instead of turning the card sideways before offering insurance bets, he reveals the under card, exposing a 4 for a soft 15.

The house rule in this situation is to allow the player(s) to continue playing with the knowledge of both of the dealer's hand.

So how would you proceed? Hit or stay? Why?

Comments

  • HobbesHobbes
    Prob hitting (I hate 12/13 :) ) but would depend on the count. :D
  • moosemoose
    Soft 15 is still a big advantage to the house no? Dealer can not bust on any one card. I'm hitting.
  • SeekTheGrailSeekTheGrail
    I am staying. Absent any count if the dealer had a 5 up and you had 12 basic strategy is to stick on 12 and this equates to the same situation.
  • moosemoose
    It is basic strategy only because most likely next card in the deck is a value of 10. This is soft 15. Way different.

    To answer the question we need datamn to tell us what the statistical two card draw ave total is on, I am assuming, 6 decks. This is the basic strategy situation you describe. BUT, add that to the chances that the dealer will hit a low card first and not have to draw a second card.
  • JohnnieHJohnnieH
    Yes, it's a 6 deck rotating shuffler.
  • HobbesHobbes
    Does the dealer hit on soft 17?

    Also, I hate those constant shufflers. :D
  • SeekTheGrailSeekTheGrail
    I stand by sticking even thou it is different being soft 15.

    Bad first draw cards = 3,4,5,6 = you lose good draw cards = 9,T,J,Q,K,A put you into positive EV on the second card and the 2,7,8 are close to neutral overall.

    This feels really close to 50-50 either way. Hope Al can apply the math for us. Great question JohnnieH!
  • JohnnieHJohnnieH
    Hobbes wrote: »
    Does the dealer hit on soft 17?

    Also, I hate those constant shufflers. :D

    Yes, we hit soft 17s. Most of the time our shufflers seem to be set on 'Red Wedding'
  • AcidJoeAcidJoe
    Can I surrender? If not, I am hitting. If I didn't see the 4 I would hit, so I would hit by seeing the 4. He is getting 2 shots at you so you may as well take one. I may sit down later today and actually do the math (if Al doesn't beat me to it).
  • JohnnieHJohnnieH
    AcidJoe wrote: »
    Can I surrender? If not, I am hitting. If I didn't see the 4 I would hit, so I would hit by seeing the 4. He is getting 2 shots at you so you may as well take one. I may sit down later today and actually do the math (if Al doesn't beat me to it).

    No surrender.
  • woog30woog30
    Due to the mistake is there an option to kill the hand? Not exactly this situation but I've seen many times where pit will give the option to kill hand. If that is not option I stand.
  • moosemoose
    here is the answer. stand

    Double Exposure - Wizard of Odds
  • GTA PokerGTA Poker
    moose wrote: »
    here is the answer. stand

    Double Exposure - Wizard of Odds

    You're no Marky Mark
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