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2-5 Hand analysis
Just wanted to get some opinions on what I thought was a somewhat interesting hand from Brantford 2-5 last weekend...
I'm a little fuzzy on the exact details, but I'll try to rehash the hand as best I can.
For starters, I'd say probably one of the tightest 2-5 tables I've seen at Brantford in a while, but still quite beatable. Probably 4-5 to the flop on average as opposed to 7-8.
I have a generally tight image, but I figure I'm likely seen as one of the more aggressive players preflop (I'm generally getting asked from the people in front if I'm going to raise behind them when they're contemplating limping in).
2 folds, early-mid position raises to 4, another fold. Hero has AT diamonds.
Maybe this is a bad call, but figure if I call I can probably get at least 2 more to call. So I call.
Next person 3 bets (Ugh). Note: I've seen the person who 3 bet it do this with some fairly marginal hands (ie. 3 betting an UTG raiser with 77). Everyone else, including blinds fold. Original raiser caps. Again, I call the 2 bets, figuring I'm getting something like 5:1 on my call (11.5 SB /2).
Flop comes Tc 6d 4d.
Couldn't really ask for a better flop. Preflop capper checks. I bet out. LP raises. Capper now raises. OK, so I'm up against overpairs. I figure I have probably 14 outs (could be less obviously if AA is out there, or even worse TT). Against KK, QQ, JJ, I figure I'm actually a favorite on this flop.
So, curious as to what people would do here? I figure capping is a little excessive, since I know there's no way they're folding, but maybe I should just to throw them off as to what I'm holding? I figure flat calling signals I'm on a flush draw clear as day. I ended up just calling, with the person behind me of course capping it.
Turn is a rag low card (not a diamond). Capper checks. I check. LP bets. Capper just calls now. I tried to figure out what I would have done here if he had check raised, being sandwiched between the raisers with a big draw, but a hand I clearly know isn't best. I still think I'd have to call if he had made it 10. Anyways, he didn't raise, and I just called.
River was a brick, and inexplicably (I guess they both feared AA), it goes check, check, check on river. Capper has KK, LP has QQ. I lose, but felt OK about the way I played it (with the exception of allowing myself to get into a capped pot with that hand between 2 raisers).
Interest as always to hear others thoughts...
I'm a little fuzzy on the exact details, but I'll try to rehash the hand as best I can.
For starters, I'd say probably one of the tightest 2-5 tables I've seen at Brantford in a while, but still quite beatable. Probably 4-5 to the flop on average as opposed to 7-8.
I have a generally tight image, but I figure I'm likely seen as one of the more aggressive players preflop (I'm generally getting asked from the people in front if I'm going to raise behind them when they're contemplating limping in).
2 folds, early-mid position raises to 4, another fold. Hero has AT diamonds.
Maybe this is a bad call, but figure if I call I can probably get at least 2 more to call. So I call.
Next person 3 bets (Ugh). Note: I've seen the person who 3 bet it do this with some fairly marginal hands (ie. 3 betting an UTG raiser with 77). Everyone else, including blinds fold. Original raiser caps. Again, I call the 2 bets, figuring I'm getting something like 5:1 on my call (11.5 SB /2).
Flop comes Tc 6d 4d.
Couldn't really ask for a better flop. Preflop capper checks. I bet out. LP raises. Capper now raises. OK, so I'm up against overpairs. I figure I have probably 14 outs (could be less obviously if AA is out there, or even worse TT). Against KK, QQ, JJ, I figure I'm actually a favorite on this flop.
So, curious as to what people would do here? I figure capping is a little excessive, since I know there's no way they're folding, but maybe I should just to throw them off as to what I'm holding? I figure flat calling signals I'm on a flush draw clear as day. I ended up just calling, with the person behind me of course capping it.
Turn is a rag low card (not a diamond). Capper checks. I check. LP bets. Capper just calls now. I tried to figure out what I would have done here if he had check raised, being sandwiched between the raisers with a big draw, but a hand I clearly know isn't best. I still think I'd have to call if he had made it 10. Anyways, he didn't raise, and I just called.
River was a brick, and inexplicably (I guess they both feared AA), it goes check, check, check on river. Capper has KK, LP has QQ. I lose, but felt OK about the way I played it (with the exception of allowing myself to get into a capped pot with that hand between 2 raisers).
Interest as always to hear others thoughts...
Comments
On the turn, just calling is obviously your best play. With only one card to come, your chances of hitting your flush have gone way down, although any ace or ten wins the pot for you as well. (You couldn't know that, but you probably had a feeling.) If it had been check-raised, making it two cold to you, I think your best play would be to fold. A painful fold, yes, and a 'big laydown' by some standards, but I think that's what I would do in your spot. If you call 2 cold, the player behind you could very well make it 3, and then the player before you could make it 4, meaning it would be a total of 4 bets to you on the turn with one card to come. Ugh. Not a happy situation.
I think you played it fine. Great post, interesting hand. I have a feeling some might disagree with me on this one.
Question for you: would you have called a bet on the river? How about 2 bets if you'd already called one? (ie: it goes bet call raise call...) How about 2 cold? (check check bet raise....)
Yikes! The pot is 13SB on the flop. 22SB on the turn. That turns into 9ishBB on the turn. You are looking at a draw that comes in 20% of the time. Having to cold call two is giving you 12:2 or 6 to 1 on your money for a 5 to 1 shot.. A capped turn gives you 17:4 or 4.25 to 1 pot odds. Slightly bad but if you can raise someone on the river you can make up for it in implied odds..
I also think you can discount a set, most live low limit players wont 3 bet or cap TT..
Pre-flop, ATs is in trouble facing a cold raise and no-one other than the raiser entering the pot before you. That you may get 2 callers behind you is still not enough incentive to play this kind of hand here I think. This is the essence of being out of position. You have no idea if you will get 0 callers, 2 callers, or two other players each raising behind you.
Calling when it's 2 more bets back to you is automatic.
On the flop, I would raise for value at every opportunity. You are the favorite against strong hands such as overpairs (other than AA), or flopped 2 pair. Your chances are not even grim against a monster like a flopped set. Capping the betting may also win you a free or cheaper card on the turn by either shutting down one or more of your opponents, or even causing the player to act ahead of you to make the mistake of trying to check-raise you on the turn.
On the river, the pot is too big and your hand too good to fold for one bet, particularly because the turn went only one bet. Your chances of winning are slim, but your cost of looking your opponent(s) up relavtive to the pot size is much slimmer. Having your two opponents show down some combination of the hands 99, AK, Kd Qd and JTs would be unlikely, but not outrageous.
We're fortunate that at low-limit you'd never see players who are so fancy that they would check-raise on the river after the flop went 3 [EDIT: 4] bets and the turn went 1. So, I don't have to answer all_aces' most difficult question. :cool:
But, I'd fold.
Scotty
Next time I'll do the math.
I am a very bad, very lazy poster. I am a very bad, very lazy poster. I am a very bad, very lazy...
FWIW, math or no math, I'd probably still fold the turn for 2 cold with more bets to possibly follow. I just hate putting that much money into a pot with only one card to come. BBC is absolutely right, though, the odds are about right to call any and all bets on the turn. The question is: do you want to? It seems to be more or less neutral EV....
If i've capped the flop, i actually bet out on the turn. It will be very hard for LP to raise me with out a set, AA or KK. Likely result though is they call, call. if raised back to me call the turn bet, and i pay nearly any price to see the river, with what i feel is 11 nearly sure outs, two tens and 9 flush cards and possibly the ace, but at this point i'm not sure. Simply put though the odds favour just slightly with me holding one ace, that the over pairs may not be aces.
On the river i likely check and call one bet, and fold if it's two bets back to me. unlikely to be much betting coming at you though with you capping the flop and betting out on the turn.
I realize that betting out the turn may seem a bit to agressive, but since you're willing to call one bet, you might as well be the one putting the bet out there. it likely furthur confuses what your hand is plus it'll give you the look of a maniac, while costing / putting the same amount of money into the pot.
oh and pray that the river gives you a flush and them a set, no way they can put you on the flush if you play it as listed above.