Hand Analysis-How do I?

pkrooster

Hi all. This hand came up at my weekly fish pond game. Lots of really new players who have grasped the mechanics of the game but have yet to learn the beauty of the game. The game is NL holdem tournament, ten dollar buy-in and 10 people in.

I have Jh7h on the button SB is a bit wild post flop but wont raise much pre flop. BB is a player who just wants to see the flop and won't raise anything but big PP. Blinds are .25-.50 starting bankrolls of 10.00. So three ep and mp players call I decide to take a flop and the SB calls and BB checks.

The flop (Kh 6h 2c) pot size 3.00
SB checks BB bets out 1.00 utg calls rest fold to me. So 5.00 in the pot I have 8.75 in front of me. UTG is super weak and will laydown to any bet of a good size. BB is in love with slowplaying. From this I can read no two pair and no sets and he probably would not bet a flush draw. He does have me covered. So I push it all in hoping to steal. BB thinks for a while. UTG folds out of turn. He finally says I think you have two hearts and calls with Kc 8d. Anyway the board goes running kings for quads and I am done.

My question is how do I calculate the EV on this play? I have read Sklansky but am a little hazy. From twodimes.net the percents were 37% win and 63% lose. So I took 63*8.75=551.25 my loss over a hundred hands. And 37*12.75=471.75 my win over a hundred hands. So I lose 79.50 over a hundred hands or about .79 cents a hand. Obviously a bad play or is it? I really thought he would fold. I gave him a fifty percent chance of folding. At what percent of folding does this become a break even play?

So anyway there is my question and have fun with this play and be ruthlessly honest. I am not thrilled with my play here(I tend to try and outplay weaker players live..LEAK).

Cheers Paul

Phippo44

You have to be able to quantify the fold equity of the opponent. If you think he will call say 50% of the time, then multiply 0.50 by the pot size (the smaller pot size since he didnt call) add add that to the EV of you winning.

Of course the hard part is determining an accurate fold/call ratio

ScottyZ

I thing that calling is a much better play here. You have a good drawing hand, and are getting a good price to draw.

Computing the EV of moving all-in is almost impossible. You need the following information (among other things):

(a) The probabilites of each of your opponents folding

(b) The probability distribution (that is, their range of hands) of your opponents hands given that they call you

(c) The showdown winning percentages of your hand versus your opponent's (or opponents') hands in all of the cases in (b)

Instead of actually computing the EV, you can make a very rough approximation using a few heavy assumptions.

For example:

-Assume UTG will fold 100% of the time.

-Assume the SB will fold 100% of the time.

-Assume the range of hands the BB will call you with is represented by the actual hand he called you with.

-Assume the BB will call you 30% of the time. (And will have a hand similar to K8 on average.) This one is very hard to estimate.

Yes, these are all very unrealistic assumptions. The UTG player might have something. The SB has already checked, but does he have something? How likely is it that the BB has something given that he has made a smallish bet into a big field? How likely is the BB to call a huge raise even if he does have some marginal hand like one pair?

Notice the magnitude of the assumptions that need to be made to even make a very rough approximation of the EV of a play. Poker is complicated.

Under these mega-assumptions, your EV for moving all in is:

(0.70) * (+5.00) + (0.30) * [ (0.37) * (+5.00 + 7.75) + (0.63) * (-8.75) ]

= +3.26

So, moving all-in seems superior to folding. (The EV of folding is 0.)

Unfortunately, the EV of calling is even harder to calculate than the EV of raising, so whether moving all-in is the right play or not (compared to calling) isn't easy to analyse mathematically.

The poker player in me says that this is an easy call.

One thing to notice is that with the oppressive blind structure* of this tournament, the word "variance" should not cross your mind. Take every max EV play you can get.

ScottyZ

*Assuming the blinds will double in the near future, the average stack will be a short stack soon.

Unknown

I'm with Scotty. If they're going to let you draw cheaply, take them up on it. Of course, no matter how 'cheap' it is for you, you have to consider your own stack size when making the call, even if the pot odds are there and then some. In your case, is the difference between 8.75 and 7.75 really that big? In a way, it is, with the size of the blinds, but compare it with the size of your stack if you hit the heart on the turn and win.

Basically, it's all risk/reward. What you're willing to risk, and for how much of a reward. $1 is an acceptable risk, you're lucky to be able to draw so cheaply, and you should just call. If no heart comes on the turn, you will have to re-evaluate your situation.

ScoobyD

Trying to use big semi-bluffs against weak players is generally a waste of time, since they simply won't fold often enough. Take the cheap draw, and if you hit, bet for value. As well, I'm not a huge fan of risking 5% of your stack with that hand preflop to begin with...

wader

ScoobyD wrote:

Trying to use big semi-bluffs against weak players is generally a waste of time, since they simply won't fold often enough.

Bingo