fifty50 bubble hand

trigstrigs
in STT Strategy
comments on this hand please. it's the bubble and i'm in the BB second in chips. blinds are really high with even chip leader holding less than 10BBs. there are a couple small stacks that i could easily wait to bust.

villain has the big stack and has shown that he will push it all day against all the short stacks. i felt very confident that i had his range beat here, but is this still a fold? he had shown some pretty weak holdings already after shoving preflop and being called by some short stacks before this hand.

PokerStars Tournament $6.68+$0.32 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XIII (250/500)
Table '1108611961 1' 10-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: BUTTON (1620 in chips)
Seat 4: SB (1145 in chips)
Seat 6: HERO (3570 in chips)
Seat 7: UTG (815 in chips)
Seat 9: HJ (3140 in chips)
Seat 10: VILLAIN (4710 in chips)
BUTTON: posts the ante 60
SB: posts the ante 60
HERO: posts the ante 60
UTG: posts the ante 60
HJ: posts the ante 60
VILLAIN: posts the ante 60
SB: posts small blind 250
HERO: posts big blind 500
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [9d 9s]
UTG: folds
HJ: folds
VILLAIN: raises 4150 to 4650 and is all-in
BUTTON: folds
SB: folds
HERO: calls 3010 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (1140) returned to VILLAIN
*** FLOP *** [6d 3c 4h]
*** TURN *** [6d 3c 4h] [6s]
*** RIVER *** [6d 3c 4h 6s] [2c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
HERO: shows [9d 9s] (two pair, Nines and Sixes)
VILLAIN: shows [6c Kc] (three of a kind, Sixes)
VILLAIN collected 7630 from pot
HERO finished the tournament in 6th place

Comments

  • pkrfce9pkrfce9
    you could do the icm analysis, which would be a good exercise.

    here's a quick way i looked at it:
    * you are most likely no worse than 50% (in this case, you are better)
    * if you fold, you have a 99% chance to make 3x your buyin
    * if you call, you have 50+% chance to make 5x your buyin and a 50-% chance to lose it all.

    if you like to gamble, call. if you like sure things, fold.

    now go do the actual icm analysis and see if i'm even close.
  • trigstrigs
    running some numbers, even if villain is shoving only 15% of hands (77+, A7s+, K9s+, JTs+, ATo+, KTo+, QJo) i'm still a slight favourite at 51.29% to 48.71% equity. i think we could assume that he is shoving even more than that though, can't we?
  • trigstrigs
    pkrfce9 wrote: »
    you could do the icm analysis, which would be a good exercise.

    here's a quick way i looked at it:
    * you are most likely no worse than 50% (in this case, you are better)
    * if you fold, you have a 99% chance to make 3x your buyin
    * if you call, you have 50+% chance to make 5x your buyin and a 50-% chance to lose it all.

    if you like to gamble, call. if you like sure things, fold.

    now go do the actual icm analysis and see if i'm even close.

    i can run the ranges, but i don't know how to do the ICM calculations due to the varying payouts.
  • pkrfce9pkrfce9
    google is the thinking poker player's best friend
  • philliiveyphilliivey
    Here is part of Thrash's post on 2p2 in the 50/50 thread in the stt strategy section, You should look over this thread trigs.:)

    "Fifty50s are a weird bubble structure, if you are a shorter mid stack but not the shortest you want to be incredibly tight but as you have more chips you can actually widen your calling range on the bubble even if it means it puts you in risk in being eliminated. That is due to the fact that half the prize pool is awarded by how many chips you have. at 2500-4k chips how wide you can call will surprise you."
  • trigstrigs
    pkrfce9 wrote: »
    google is the thinking poker player's best friend

    (i am not 100% sure how to do this but i will try...)

    okay, so i managed to figure out that the ICM payout breakdown for fifty50s is 60%-10%-10%-10%-10% (don't ask me how this is the case but allegedly it is - here's the proof if you want). total prize pool for the tournament is $66.80

    i'm assuming that my opponent is pushing with maybe 30% of his hands (this is where i always have a problem with these calculations - this could even be more against this particular villain i think).

    so against this range, i have 58.14% to 41.41% equity according to equilab with my 99.

    so i plugged in stacks at the start of this hand and got the following:

    4710 - 25.5175 - $17.05
    3570 - 21.5358 - $14.39 (hero)
    3140 - 19.9789 - $13.35
    1620 - 13.6853 - $9.14
    1145 - 10.9494 - $7.31
    815 - 8.3331 - $5.57

    if i call and win my equity is:
    7130 - 33.7373 - $22.29

    if i call and lose my equity is obviously 0% and $0.

    if i fold my equity is:
    3010 - 19.6289 - $13.11

    if i call, 58.14% my equity increases to $22.29 and 41.41% my equity drops to $0 so:

    total prize pool equity = (0.5814 * 22.29) + (0.4141 * 0)
    = $12.96

    so in this case it's a very close fold.

    did i do this correctly?
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