Another JJ dilemma
Local B&M NL tourney , final table
I have a stack of about 24,000 , the blinds are 1000-2000
There are 8 players left , the top 7 get cash , my stack is about average , there is one huge stack immediately to my left , with 2-3 smaller stacks that the blinds are starting to seriously put preasure on.
All fold to me on the button , I look down and see JJ , I raise to 5000 (thats been the standard PF raise) , SB folds , BB gos in the tank and then pushs all-in , I have him covered but barely.
I start to consider his range of hands , I rule out AA KK QQ and AK (thinking those would be easy calls/pushs for him) , the only hands I really fear him having are AQ and KQ , I don't want to do a coin flip at this point with others in more jeopardy than myself.
I convince myself he is putting me on a steal , (I stole the blinds last orbit on my button uncontested) and call.
Result he turns over AJ , hits his A on the flop and I'm crippled down to 3500.
Analysis ? Should I have pushed PF , should I have thrown the jacks away and wait to see if the short stacks survive and then get more aggressive , or was I in a situation that I couldn't get away from.
I have a stack of about 24,000 , the blinds are 1000-2000
There are 8 players left , the top 7 get cash , my stack is about average , there is one huge stack immediately to my left , with 2-3 smaller stacks that the blinds are starting to seriously put preasure on.
All fold to me on the button , I look down and see JJ , I raise to 5000 (thats been the standard PF raise) , SB folds , BB gos in the tank and then pushs all-in , I have him covered but barely.
I start to consider his range of hands , I rule out AA KK QQ and AK (thinking those would be easy calls/pushs for him) , the only hands I really fear him having are AQ and KQ , I don't want to do a coin flip at this point with others in more jeopardy than myself.
I convince myself he is putting me on a steal , (I stole the blinds last orbit on my button uncontested) and call.
Result he turns over AJ , hits his A on the flop and I'm crippled down to 3500.
Analysis ? Should I have pushed PF , should I have thrown the jacks away and wait to see if the short stacks survive and then get more aggressive , or was I in a situation that I couldn't get away from.
Comments
Basically, your stack size of 12*BB at the beginning of the hand does not afford you the luxury of getting away from a hand this good and waiting for a better spot to get your money in later in the tournament.
Your analysis at the time makes a lot of sense, and is a good line of thinking. You have a far better hand than your opponent thinks you have, so his range of hands is much wider than you'd expect from a typical re-raiser. This is a good example of Level 2 thinking---that is, "What does he think that I have?"
However, I'm not sure why you'd rule out him re-raising with the highest hands. Your opponent would typically be getting great value if he happens to have a real hand here since it's short stack vs short stack. Also, I think the AK in particular isn't a good hand to call/auto-push with (even forgetting about the fact that you would have an easy call anyway if you somehow knew you were up against AK).
On the other hand, it is worth ruling out AA-QQ from the point of view of probability. As you thought through during the hand, your opponent is probably pushing with many more hands other than these.
ScottyZ
Level 2: what does he have
Level 3: what does he think I have
Level 4: what does he think I think he has
see Negreanu's article
I'm not sure I'd call this a level.
ScottyZ
Just like that classic scene in "The Princess Bride" with the poison in the wine. You could go forever ....
Go on forever? In-con-stheev-able!
What are you trying to do with this kind of comment? Start a land war in Asia?
ScottyZ
The J-J is an auto-call after he goes into the tank, as long as it's a legitimate "think about it tell"
You read it spot on, got it in as a 3-1 favourite (you should lie awake at night DREAMING of being 3-1 favourite), and go out drawn. Sigh... poo happens.
OMG LOL ROTFLMAO
ScottyZ