Hand analysis: thoughts appreciated.

ol-stone-face

Here is the hand. My read on the SB is that he is quite loose preflop playing about half the hands he's involved in and usually protects his blinds. Fairly passive post flop. He's a gambler and will protect his blinds no matter what.
At this point I was on a little rush playing aggressively and hitting cards. Just a few hands earlier I cracked SB's pocket Kings with AJo when I was UTG. I check raised him on the flop that hand after hitting an Ace.

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: o_s_f is CO with 7 :spade:, 8 :spade: .
5 folds, o_s_f calls, 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (3 SB) J:spade:, T:spade:, 6:spade: (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, o_s_f bets, SB calls, BB folds.

Turn: (2.50 BB) 7 :diamond: (2 players)
SB checks, o_s_f bets, SB raises, o_s_f 3-bets, SB caps, o_s_f calls.

River: (10.50 BB) A :club: (2 players)
SB bets, o_s_f calls.

Now I am wondering if he is just steaming a little at me on the turn and throwing back a check raise because I did it to him a few hands earlier. However he comes back and caps. Hello!!!!
I'm still having trouble respecting this guy. I would have just called him down in most situations after that check raise as he isn't usually aggressive post flop.

Any thoughts on the way I played the turn and the river?
Thanks

Tredeb

Why didn't you raise on the river? I think he check-raises on the flop if he has a flush. however, I have been known to be wrong. I put him on a set.

ol-stone-face

Tredeb wrote:

Why didn't you raise on the river? I think he check-raises on the flop if he has a flush. however, I have been known to be wrong. I put him on a set.

Good question. His check raise and cap on the turn spooked me. I didn't read him as very aggressive post flop (had notes on him) and his cap meant he had something (to me anyway). I was skeptical but when he capped it and fired on the river I gave him credit. That may have been wrong.

Flint Bones

My guess is that he either had pocket 7's of J7o or maybe 8,9 for the straight. His call on the flop doesn't strike me as a move someone would have if they had the flush. Especially one that would beat yours. I would have raised on the river. You have a strong hand.

BBC Z

Raise the river and cap it if given the chance.

Nice hand.


** Edit: I didnt notice that he capped the turn, this would make capping a little over agressive...

raise the river and call the 3 bet..

ScottyZ

Raise the river with the intention of calling the 3rd bet.

There is only one hand that beats you (i.e. As Xs) that a sensible player might play this way. A flopped non-nut flush would be unlikely to slowplay the flop, and would probably bet out instead of going for a check-raise. (And especially not check-call.) You're getting great value here since there are plenty of hands you can beat and will pay you off.

The key here is that the majority of low-limit players are going to make a lot of irrational or just downright weird plays. Overvaluing hands on dangerous looking boards is a very common error made by low-limit players. Players often get married to the absolute value of their hand--- "I have two pair. This is a good hand, so I should raise."

While it's possible that he's got a better flush, your opponent is probably going to have a wide enough variety of hands here that you will get good value for the initial raise (i.e. to 2 bets) in the long run.

Now, if your opponent re-raises you on the river, and you describe him as generally passive, I think you've got to consider saving a bet here. Your opponent has got to be pretty daft to re-raise on the river with less than a flush. Do not fold of course, but at this point, I'd start to get the feeling that a value raise wasn't warranted.

Note how much opinions can change even within a single betting round. The raise to 2 bets I think is an excellent value bet against a player who could vey well be overplaying his hand, but raising to 4 bets in the same betting round seems like it's going to far.

The fact that the betting will be capped at 4 bets does offer some pretection if you are wrong, but don't let the cap lull you to sleep in cases like this. The 4th bet is still a bet, and saving (or winning) that last bet is still worth thinking about carefully. Also don't forget that if your opponent makes it 3 bets, he is aware that you can still go to 4, so this gives the 3rd bet a little extra punch, particularly after you were willing to cap the turn betting.

Note that it certainly isn't nitpicking to try to save or win one extra bet here and there (such as in this example) in limit poker. It's actually the very heart of such games.

ScottyZ

Unknown

I'm in the minority here... after the turn action, I would just call the river bet, unless I believed that my opponent was a maniac. To put it simply, I would play the hand exactly as you did. I know that if your opponent does have a flush (nut or non-nut) it's a strange way to play it, but I see strange plays all the time, at a lot of limits. I wouldn't want to raise the river and open myself up to a 3-bet that I'd have to call.

FWIW I think the SB had Qs3s.

BBC Z

all_aces wrote:

FWIW I think the SB had Qs3s.

I see a showdown involving AJo with the ace of spades. Of course, given the initial read he should have raised it preflop.. but I think he's playing a high single spade in his hand along with top pair..

ScottyZ

I'm guessing 89o with one spade.

C'mon... I really need this one after my brutal last place finish in the last guess the hand dealy.

ScottyZ

ol-stone-face

BBC Z wrote:

I see a showdown involving AJo with the ace of spades. Of course, given the initial read he should have raised it preflop..

Really? Why do you say that? Because he's a blind defender? I was kind of hoping the button and both blinds would come along for the ride and not only the SB. Don't I want more people around with 87s?

BBC Z

ScottyZ wrote:

I'm guessing 89o with one spade.

C'mon... I really need this one after my brutal last place finish in the last guess the hand dealy.

ScottyZ

Are you trying to guess that the villian holds the same 8 of spades as the hero?

BBC Z

ol-stone-face wrote:

Really? Why do you say that? Because he's a blind defender? I was kind of hoping the button and both blinds would come along for the ride and not only the SB. Don't I want more people around with 87s?

Oh, I was vague about who I was referring to.. I meant the SB should have raised. Not you. YOU should have folded preflop. You have an implied odds hand getting no implied odds cuz everyone folded infront of you.. Dunno how I missed that until now..

SB should have raised because he's up against 1 limper with a pretty good hand. The raise will knock out the BB and it'll be heads up.

ol-stone-face

BBC Z wrote:

YOU should have folded preflop. You have an implied odds hand getting no implied odds cuz everyone folded infront of you..

Fair enough, I'll accept that. But I was kinda rushin at that moment.

Flint Bones

I don't think it is such a bad play limping in with 78s. Sometimes when you play you need to see a flop and 78s is a pretty good hand if you're not going to play a monster. It has a lot of possibilities.

Unless you're saying he should have folded if the SB raised, then yes I agree.

ol-stone-face

ScottyZ wrote:

I'm guessing 89o with one spade.

C'mon... I really need this one after my brutal last place finish in the last guess the hand dealy.

And I appreciate your last place finish on that one otherwise it would have been me.

FWIW, the he was holding Ks9s. This is one where I feel the result wasn't as important as my thought process. I've been trying to increase my post flop aggression but this was more a remnant of my weak post flop tendancies. I would have been less surprised to see him flip over 77, so if that is the case I should have raised it at least another time.

A_a, you read him better then me. These slow play the flop guys get me more often then not. I would have felt pretty silly had he turned over 77 or 4s2s at the end.

So in the end I called when I thought I had the best hand. Ugh! This education is a slow process.

ScottyZ

BBC Z wrote:

Are you trying to guess that the villian holds the same 8 of spades as the hero?

I was thinking of him having only a single spade but making the straight on the turn, e.g. 8h 9s.

Although, it is true that the 8s being out in another hand does reduce the chances of my guess being correct from a probability point of view. :cool:

ScottyZ

Unknown

I missed the preflop details too... I agree that 7s8s is not a great shorthanded hand by any means, especially to limp with. I would have raised it up preflop in your spot, or folded. I think both plays are fine, but personally, I would have raised.

ScottyZ

I would have raised it up preflop in your spot, or folded. I think both plays are fine, but personally, I would have raised.

Agreed, except that I personally would have folded. :cool:

ScottyZ