Losing too many All Ins
So I've really started looking at my game and trying to be honest with myself. Analyzing leaks, asking for advice, reading etc.. but I have something from my stats that I am having a hard time explaining and therefore coming up with a strategy to correct.
I am strictly a low limit SNG tourney player at this point.
What I am seeing is a giant and growing discrepancy between my $ won and my expected money won. It's almost 100%. To make the math easier Let's say over the last 6 months I've won $100 but my expected is $200. So basically I am losing a ton of all ins where I am the favorite at the time the money goes in. I don't know how to correct this, I mean I am getting my money in all in with the best of it and just continue to get outdrawn.
For a while I just let it go as variation but I'm now pushing 2000 tournaments and the gap continues to widen. Is my sample size too small? Would anyone who plays a lot consider this normal? Am I just getting unusually unlucky? Is online poker rigged (slight tongue in cheek)?
I know at the lower stakes people aren't paying attention to anyone else (well probably not as much as I do) and call with nonsense a lot which is basically what I am counting on. Getting a big hand pushing and expecting a call from garbage, this happens a lot but I'm just not seeing the win rate I would expect. I know I can't win every hand but the trend looks like I am pushing with the worst hand most of the time which is the opposite of reality.
I'm trying to play a patient game but this is really starting to get to me. What kind of things would you look at if you saw these results? I'm not sure where to start.. I want to stick to the plan but I'm discouraged right now and don't really know where to even start.
I am strictly a low limit SNG tourney player at this point.
What I am seeing is a giant and growing discrepancy between my $ won and my expected money won. It's almost 100%. To make the math easier Let's say over the last 6 months I've won $100 but my expected is $200. So basically I am losing a ton of all ins where I am the favorite at the time the money goes in. I don't know how to correct this, I mean I am getting my money in all in with the best of it and just continue to get outdrawn.
For a while I just let it go as variation but I'm now pushing 2000 tournaments and the gap continues to widen. Is my sample size too small? Would anyone who plays a lot consider this normal? Am I just getting unusually unlucky? Is online poker rigged (slight tongue in cheek)?
I know at the lower stakes people aren't paying attention to anyone else (well probably not as much as I do) and call with nonsense a lot which is basically what I am counting on. Getting a big hand pushing and expecting a call from garbage, this happens a lot but I'm just not seeing the win rate I would expect. I know I can't win every hand but the trend looks like I am pushing with the worst hand most of the time which is the opposite of reality.
I'm trying to play a patient game but this is really starting to get to me. What kind of things would you look at if you saw these results? I'm not sure where to start.. I want to stick to the plan but I'm discouraged right now and don't really know where to even start.
Comments
Of course it's variance since we're talking $w vs. $ew but it would appear to a more extreme case of the runbads.
What am I looking at?
I posted it more as a "LOL variance" - just keep getting your money in good!
taking a break never hurt anyone. do some studying and some reviewing and come back fresh in the new year.