QQ- What would you have done?
So I was on my way back from Boston (6.5 hours from Boston-Niagara) and was supposed to meet a couple of buddies around 7pm. Two of them decided to go early and left before I got there and my other buddy got lazy.
I felt like a complete addict going to play poker by myself, but I prefer playing on tables myself even if I go with my buddies.
Anyway, I called ahead and plopped myself down on the 1/2 (100 max) NL table. Got hit with the $5 session fee with 15 mins left. I really think that that should have been waved or should be pro-rated.
Fortunately for my I hit QQ within 3 or 4 hands without getting hit with blinds. I raise to $20 and only 1 guy calls. Flop come Q 7 4 all spades. I check, the other guys bets 15. I call. I was thinking my trips were going to get burned by a flush. Turn comes, a 4. I check again and the guy checks. River comes a 9d. I bet 30 and he raises me all in (another 30).
He felt pretty confident on his nut flush, but I was kinda scared he had pocket 4's. What are the changes of him having 4's anyway?
Pot was just about $200 (I had $95 to play with after the session fee) and a few of limpers
I felt like a complete addict going to play poker by myself, but I prefer playing on tables myself even if I go with my buddies.
Anyway, I called ahead and plopped myself down on the 1/2 (100 max) NL table. Got hit with the $5 session fee with 15 mins left. I really think that that should have been waved or should be pro-rated.
Fortunately for my I hit QQ within 3 or 4 hands without getting hit with blinds. I raise to $20 and only 1 guy calls. Flop come Q 7 4 all spades. I check, the other guys bets 15. I call. I was thinking my trips were going to get burned by a flush. Turn comes, a 4. I check again and the guy checks. River comes a 9d. I bet 30 and he raises me all in (another 30).
He felt pretty confident on his nut flush, but I was kinda scared he had pocket 4's. What are the changes of him having 4's anyway?
Pot was just about $200 (I had $95 to play with after the session fee) and a few of limpers
Comments
Don't start seeing monsters under the bed.
Pocket fours are not to be feared. He's actually 3 times more likely to have pocket sevens than pocket fours, assuming that he would have played both hands exactly the same way. He's far more likely than that to have a huge range of possible hands other than these two specific hands, e.g. a single 4, some kind of flush, 99, or some other unreasonable hand.
If he bet $10,000 instead of $30 into a ~$70 pot, I'd go into the tank. I'd take the 10:3 odds offered here and bet that your opponent does not have pocket fours.
ScottyZ
if he has pocket fours, good on him and i'm going to pay him off every day of the week and twice on sunday.
as scotty said unless his bet was something like 100x the pot, i don't think i give much thought to anything other than calling.
Still, would you be able to fold...I'm definitely not that good...I'd probably lose my house, my wife, my car, .... if given the chance here.
You would have to be 100% sure your opponent has 44 to make folding here even remotely possible...so unless you saw his hand I think you happily call, regardless of the bet.
In the case of the outragous $10K overbet, you'd only need to deduce that your opponent has the quads over 50% of the time to make folding correct, since you'd only be getting (approximately) 1 to 1 on your call.
ScottyZ
He had the A2 of spades which he hit the flush on the flop.
It doesn't make any sense to me that he would call a big raise with such a speculative hand. He caught a miracle flop (are the odds 1 in 100?) and still lost.
If he had bet it stronger on the flop, would you have folded? I guess he really wanted you to stay in the hand, after all...
I'd be curious to learn how people feel the nut flush on the flop should be played. Did he play it right? How should he bet the flop, turn and river in this case? I guess there is about a 30% chance of a set on the flop improving by the river?
Being on the receiving end of a flush flop, I would bet it strong like $20 or $30. I would not want to slow play it for someone to catch a pair for the full house or even the 4th flush card to make the straight flush (believe me , its happened....and when you have the ace flush its hard to even realize the straight flush is there). If you decided to slow play it, be willing to fold it when you see the pair on the board.
I probably would have folded if the bumped me past $50 preflop. I've gotten burned on QQ before to KK or AK or even AA. After the flop, I was thinking he might have had AK or AJ or even A10 of spades, but his measly $15 was low enough for me to draw for the boat. Once my boat was made I wasnt going anywhere, that's why I checked the turn and bet the river (pretending the 9 helped me like 2 pair or something...or even pretending to buy it.)
If I were that guy I would have been throwing $30 after the flop and turn, and if the guy calling was still there after the river, I would have checked to prevent losing more money. The end result would have been the same.
One little after thought, maybe he thought I was on a flush draw because I quickly called his $15 after the flop??