Regina bust out hand for discussion
Here is my bust out hand from the Regina no-limit event yesterday.
Blinds are 100-200. I have 8,500 which is a very healthy stack. I was probably slightly ahead of average although there are still too many players in the tournament to make an easy head count.
Early position player limps in. He will, I think, play a pretty ABC game. So, I think his limp means “two random big cards, not a big ace†or a small medium pair. It is possible that he has limped in with a big pair looking to re-raise.
I am two seats to his left and I limp in with Ac-3c.
There is one more limper and both blinds so five of us see the flop of Qc-5c-4d.
The EP player bets 500.
This is huge flop for my hand. I figured that he had top pair. My best guess was K-Q, Q-J, or Q-T. I did not think he had A-Q since I reasoned that he would have raised with A-Q. I also doubted a set since I thought he would check a set. A straight draw or flush draw were both possible, but nothing to fear since I would be a huge favorite over either of those options.
I raised to 1200. All fold to EP player. He goes in the tank. I felt it was legitimate. After 30 seconds he re-raises to 2500. I have 6,000 behind. At this point I became convinced that I was up against top-pair with a weak kicker. I thought there was some chance that he would fold if I moved in AND even if he didn’t I was the favorite. So… I moved in. He called. He held Qs-Ts making me a 52.5% favorite. It failed to materialize and I was out very early.
Spot my error... they may be more than one.
Blinds are 100-200. I have 8,500 which is a very healthy stack. I was probably slightly ahead of average although there are still too many players in the tournament to make an easy head count.
Early position player limps in. He will, I think, play a pretty ABC game. So, I think his limp means “two random big cards, not a big ace†or a small medium pair. It is possible that he has limped in with a big pair looking to re-raise.
I am two seats to his left and I limp in with Ac-3c.
There is one more limper and both blinds so five of us see the flop of Qc-5c-4d.
The EP player bets 500.
This is huge flop for my hand. I figured that he had top pair. My best guess was K-Q, Q-J, or Q-T. I did not think he had A-Q since I reasoned that he would have raised with A-Q. I also doubted a set since I thought he would check a set. A straight draw or flush draw were both possible, but nothing to fear since I would be a huge favorite over either of those options.
I raised to 1200. All fold to EP player. He goes in the tank. I felt it was legitimate. After 30 seconds he re-raises to 2500. I have 6,000 behind. At this point I became convinced that I was up against top-pair with a weak kicker. I thought there was some chance that he would fold if I moved in AND even if he didn’t I was the favorite. So… I moved in. He called. He held Qs-Ts making me a 52.5% favorite. It failed to materialize and I was out very early.
Spot my error... they may be more than one.
Comments
Secondly, evaluating on whether the player would fold to an aggressive all-in bet...my question would be what was the skill level of the player? Playing an ABC game (to him) may mean never laying down top pair. Did he know who you were? Was he impressed with your credentials? Intimidated? Or was he the type of player who is thinking that you are a big time player who was trying to make a big time bluff? I believe that a lot of less experienced players believe that pros and foxes do a lot of bluffing.
Summary: You're too good of a player to risk your entire tournament on a slight edge. reputation and image can be a detriment to your game when playing unknowns as they may be more inclined to "see you down". They fear the bluff, and will call you down later when you have the stuff.
Okay i have chips to work with, i can afford to take a shot here and there.
Okay i've got a great implied odds hand. Drawing hands aren't always the best in a tourney but with a limper in and a deep enough stack, i think i toss out 2 chips and call.
Ideal, i've got to see a cheap flop and i've landed a monster drawing hand. I've got a nut flush draw, a gutshot and an overcard. Definitely a hand i want to get involved with, only question is how.
Rationalle seems sound to me. With the hand getting only called pre-flop i don't have much definitition on the possibility of him having a big pocket pair pre-flop. He's come out and bet exactly half the pot. I read that as being a pair, only question is could it be a pair in hand or did he hit the queen. Either way even if he had slow played pocket kings pre-flop or hit the queen i'm likely ahead as long as he really doesn't have an Ace in his hand. I'm also willing to give credit to any medium pocket pair above 6. Not willing to give him credit for a set, with him betting out.
Now what do i do. 1500 in the pot already and in an ideal world i would like to take down this pot right now. With my outs my hand is in real good shape. I have two options, either just a smooth call of the 500 opening up more action from the back side but knowing i'll need to improve (IF i'm required to show down a hand). Or i can raise, if i raise i think i want to actually over bet the pot here slightly. It'll be tough for anyone with just a pair to call me, but if someone needs to raise over top the bet would be for my entire chip stack. Then i can evaluate if i'm willing to get my entire chip stack in at this spot.
If i bet i think i bet something like 1800-2000. I'm overbetting the pot plus now psycologically i've made it tough for the EP better. He's already put in 700 (200+500) and putting in another 1300 would be tough, unless he has an overpair or maybe KQ or AQ ... none of which are likely.
BUT i think calling is the best option, while that leaves me vulnerable to now now winning possibly with the ace, if someone else enters the pot. My remaining outs are to the nuts or nearly (the gutshot).
Okay you haven't mentioned what EP chip stack was like, but assuming his stack was comparable to you. Ie. losing this hand busts him or leaves him all but dead (less than 1000 chips).
Okay this is not what i want. The guy rather than smooth calling has decided his hand is good enough to re-open the betting, and is putting the pressure back on us. The raise to 1200 total was only 700 more back to him. I don't think that was enough to get him to fold in this spot. I'm also not thrilled about calling in this spot now because this draw no matter how good has just gotten damn expensive. Problem is this player has shown strength back at me given the oppurtunity and i'm not sure he's willing to fold this hand either at this point.
He doesn't seem willing to get away from this hand either, i think i'm going to have to have the best hand at the end to win now. I gird my teeth and call, feeling sick about how expensive this pot has gotten.
I have 6,000 behind. At this point I became convinced that I was up against top-pair with a weak kicker. I thought there was some chance that he would fold if I moved in AND even if he didn’t I was the favorite. So… I moved in. He called. He held Qs-Ts making me a 52.5% favorite. It failed to materialize and I was out very early.
Spot my error... they may be more than one.[/QUOTE]
The error, "you forgot to keep the pot small." ... I think in the end calling the bet on flop would have been the best option. That option had it's own share of risk involved, and while agression wins pots, it's agression in the right quantity. I think if you were going to raise the flop it really needed to be more.
In question to your hand ,i would not have played it at all#1 and if i did a call on the flop to your draw and if the turn is a complete brick its an easy toss and 7k+ chip stack remaining.
Tough Break Go Team Canuck Poker"Fear the beaver baby"
By re-opening the action to one (or more) of your opponents who has already made an aggressive bet in NL, you are giving up a lot to them. Raising only another $700 more here isn't nearly a large enough price for you to charge him for that privilege.
Your read is right on, and I think you're instinct to make a strong move at the pot is right on, but I think the timing for this move was off.
If you wanted to take a shot at the pot right now on the flop, I think it takes a raise to at least $2,500 or so for your bet to have enough mustard.
However, I prefer just calling on the flop and looking for future opportunities. Here are a few points to consider.
1. You have a highly potent drawing hand, and are being charged a very minimal price. The ABC in me says call.
2. After calling the $500, both of your stacks will be deep enough for you to either run a substantial bluff, or win a substantial value bet on later streets. While conserving your stack throughout a tournament is an important overall concern, this is a great example of the power of conserving your chips on a much smaller scale--- saving them for later betting rounds within the current hand. The Fox in me will like having those chips later. (Is it just me, or do I sound like a Mini Wheats commercial?)
3. Other players calling behind you should not be a major concern. You're the one with a draw. Albeit, an excellent draw.
4. The turn card & turn betting round contain a lot of unceratinties. Obviously which card will come down is an unknown. The other important unknown is what your opponent will do in this betting round. He may get spooked by your flop call and check it. He may bet small again, allowing you to chase. He may completely misread the situation and move all-in after a club falls feeling that he should "protect" his hand against a one-card flush draw. Basically, there are a lot unknowns and a lot of of mistakes your opponent can make during the turn betting round if you both arrive there with lots of chips.
5. Just calling the $500 now conceals your hand to some degree.* Given that you put your opponent on a Q with a marginal kicker, your opponent may start to second guess himself when he tries to piece together what your flop call means.
What is your opponent to do if a scare card comes off on the turn, and you fire a big bet at him? And, oh what scare cards there are--- about three quarters of the deck worth: any club, an Ace, King, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8. Of course, some of these actually do help your hand, but any of them will probably make your opponent sick holding only one pair.
The key here is that your opponent betting only $500 on the flop lets you chase just about any hand that fits one of the scare cards.**
All in all, I think I'd let the turn card come off. Your opponent is drawing pretty thin to a non-scare card.
Don't get me wrong here, I wouldn't plan on automatically bluffing on the turn, even if a scary (for the opponent) card arrives. The nice thing is that when I have to decide on this, I'll know what the turn card is, and what my opponent's (first) betting action for this round is.
By delaying action to the turn (or possibly the river), you're both getting a cheap draw, and setting up an even more effective future bluffing opportunity.
As the action actually went, I still think you're better off just flat calling the extra $1,300 instead of moving all-in. In this case, the pot would be big (more accurately, the stacks not deep enough relative to the pot), so I'd probably be less inclined to bluff in future betting streets.
Making your semi-bluff all-in move right away with two cards to come and a strong draw certainly gives you the advantage (over waiting) of being a small favorite if called. However, I think you've over-estimated the chances of your opponent laying down a hand like QJ here, particularly when you describe him as ABC. An inexperienced ABC player would simply like his top pair. A thinking ABC player probably pegs you as aggressive (and non-ABC), and should be able to piece it together that it's unlikely that you have a lot of the hands that are winning against him (e.g. AQ, KQ, a set, two pair).
ScottyZ
*Many players would assume their opponents would raise with a flush draw, but that's not really the idea I'm getting at here.
**This touches on an important general point in terms of the psychology of bluffing. Many players think backwards in time rather than forwards when it comes to scary looking cards. That is, they will often retroactively fit the opponent's hole cards to the scary looking card, rather than examining if those hole cards were from a reasonable range of holdings before the scare card arrived.
I see two errors both of which will cost you your stack. First you stated that EP could have a small medium pair. I would definitely include 66 and 55 wouldn't ruled out as impossible. It seems reasonable that EP would bet a set the same as top pair here but you don't seem to take into consideration on the flop. A set is definitely much worse than going up against top pair and will definitely be calling your all-in.
Second, I think is kind of obvious. You made the right read putting your opponent on top pair weak kicker but over estimated your opponents ability to fold here. Putting your tourney life on coin flip here doesn't seem to be the best play here, especially for you.
In the future I will not ask myself "Is there a chance?" I will ask myself, "Will he fold, yes or no?" If the answer is "no" then the best play is to call. If the answer is "yes" then the best play is to jam. The benefit, of course, is that if I am wrong on the "yes" answer then I am still the favourite. The problem is that I did not give the fold equity the correct consideration. I put it down as "yes there is a chance" and I should have thought "He will very probably call me."
Also note that I did give some thought to what an 18,000 stack would have done for me at that point in the tournament. THis also weighed in my decision since I would have, I think, been in a VERY excellent position with 18K chips and set to really turn on the juice.
Let me ask this question: "How big an edge do you need to play your whole stack in this situation? 53%? 60%? 75%?"
I made some errors on the hand, to be sure, but you are never making that big an error if all of your money goes in with the best of it. And, to be honest, even if I knew I was getting all-in with a 53% edge I might have taken it. The power of the big stack at that point, especially at that table, would have been HUGE.
I think this is a very situational question. It really "depends" on many things such as; opponents, your stack, what game you are playing, what level you're playing at, your mood, etc. As you said going in as even a small favourite can't be all bad since you win more often than you lose.
Ask yourself what percentage can outplay my opponents...if you know you will be able to outplay your opponents 75% of the time then why risk pushing a coin flip? The fact that your opponent was willing to call you down with top pair weak kicker tells me that they would be ripe for the picking as you could wait and pick them off with a much better hand than a draw.
I am the EP you are talking about, It is very surpising to see that this hand being discussed on to the internet. I knew who you were before going to Regina by seeing your Bio on the internet (only saw 5 Canadian Pro's), this was the first tourney I have ever played and just reading what you have written brings back the butterflies. Took me a while to call that all in and figured that you may have also hit top pair with a bigger kicker or maybe had hit your set. Knew that you did not hit your set by the way you were betting, so I went for the gunshot. I never realized that I had a lead on you. Figured you were ahead in chips. Was hoping to be placed on the same table as you, never expected that to happen, was the highlight of my trip. Thanx alot man. I see that there is a tourney coming up in your neck of the woods on March 30 at Emerald. Hope to see you there. Have any questions, email me.
-Teco
Welcome to the forum. And, nice call.
Like Chugs says, I hope you put 'em to good use!
-Teco