Big river decision.

sn1perb0y

The villian is a supernova who has been crushing 2014, he is a thinking player and is a solid aggressive player.

I agree my bet-sizes are small but they have been like that through the tournament most of the time and i have played with him for the last 1 hour and half. He has seen my sizes that way when I had it and as well as when I didn't.

It is the final table, payout are 1st: 2.4k--2nd: 1.7k--3rd: 1.3k--4th: 970--5th:688--6th: 543--7th: 398,

PokerStars Hand #119773950720: Tournament #946398696, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXXVII (7000/14000) - 2014/08/06 22:23:10 ET
Table '946398696 47' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: rigaregueira (667244 in chips)
Seat 3: DudeAbides79 (751100 in chips)
Seat 4: TheGoatt (437988 in chips)
Seat 6: EvigGli (948348 in chips)
Seat 7: sn1perb0y (764300 in chips)
Seat 8: skreech112 (360379 in chips)
Seat 9: asiancutiee (417641 in chips)
rigaregueira: posts the ante 1750
DudeAbides79: posts the ante 1750
TheGoatt: posts the ante 1750
EvigGli: posts the ante 1750
sn1perb0y: posts the ante 1750
skreech112: posts the ante 1750
asiancutiee: posts the ante 1750
TheGoatt: posts small blind 7000
EvigGli: posts big blind 14000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to sn1perb0y [Ks Kc]
sn1perb0y: raises 14000 to 28000
skreech112: folds
asiancutiee: folds
rigaregueira: folds
DudeAbides79: folds
TheGoatt: folds
EvigGli: calls 14000
*** FLOP *** [3h Td 4h]
EvigGli: checks
sn1perb0y: bets 31000
EvigGli: calls 31000
*** TURN *** [3h Td 4h] [5c]
EvigGli: checks
sn1perb0y: bets 48000
EvigGli: raises 77000 to 125000
sn1perb0y: calls 77000
*** RIVER *** [3h Td 4h 5c] [Kh]
EvigGli: bets 762598 and is all-in
sn1perb0y:???

pkrfce9

That looks like a bet that doesn't expect/want to get called.


tapatalk puts this here to annoy YOU

cns187

pkrfce9 wrote: »

That looks like a bet that doesn't expect/want to get called.


tapatalk puts this here to annoy YOU

Agree with pokerface, to me looks like villain flopped a set.

reibs

sn1perb0y wrote: »

The villian is a supernova who has been crushing 2014, he is a thinking player and is a solid aggressive player.

I agree my bet-sizes are small but they have been like that through the tournament most of the time and i have played with him for the last 1 hour and half. He has seen my sizes that way when I had it and as well as when I didn't.

I think ur sizing is fine, esp if you have been sizing this way all tourn. Def don't want to change sizing due to hand strength.

To start, perhaps you could list his stats? seems you have a bit of history w villain. How often is he flatting from the bb? Personally, I flat ~85% if I were him and it were not FT. I think at FT I prob tighten up slightly vs utg raises.

I am not even close to an ICM expert, however based on first glance.... if it were just chipEV I think its a call. You need to have 38% eq vs his range (calling 578k to win 1.544M), and I believe you have way more than that. Obv dependant on how villain plays flush draws typically, as I have not weighed any hands.

With that said, I think the river overbet really polarizes his range to either flushes or bluffs. Cant see a crushing reg jamming a set/straight here. But I could see him turning small pairs into a bluff, or overjamming the flush.

DennisG

Does the villian check raise the turn with a draw? really? and get himself pushed out of a pot possibly if you re-raise or jam? More likely a set or Ah 10x? Maybe Ah 2x? If he has the Ah, then likely you can't call the river jam without having a big flush..You said he is aggressive, and he is the chip leader...he is also possibly banking on you tightening right up and folding due to the payouts. I don't think I can fold this.

sn1perb0y

The villain is the chip-leader as well as he is aggressive but smart. He completes BB 24% of the time, So any Suited ace is a call.

At the beginning of the final table I was tight, i was just trying to see the dynamics of the table and the table was very aggressive some 5 bet fold was going on etc..

From UTG my range is narrow and he knows that, he called. Flop 3hTx4h, i c bet and he calls. He could have all flush draw combos, pair of tens, sets and two pairs as well as str8 draws.

Turn come 3hTx4h5c,I think i should of had my sizing a bit bigger since pot is around 153k i should of made it around 62k instead of 48k. Anyway I bet 48k and he makes it 125k. He is never raising here with ATo since he has showdown value. He will do it with sets, straights two pair and straight-flush draw combos like Ahxh and semi-bluffs like 56o. When i call this raise i look super strong, I got over pairs, sets as well as huge draws like AKhh or AQhh.

River comes 3hTx4h5cKh, and he jams over bet, he is never doing this with two pairs and sets since its no one calling with worse type of thing so he would rather have a small value bet. He is definitely capable of doing this with the flush because I looked super strong calling his turn raise and it will be tough for me to lay down my hand on the river.

I can't think of any exact hands that can take this line call flop, check raise turn and jam river.

1)My question is does my analysis make sense?
2)what bluff combos he has here with the line he took from pre-flop till river?

sn1perb0y

reibs wrote: »

I think ur sizing is fine, esp if you have been sizing this way all tourn. Def don't want to change sizing due to hand strength.

To start, perhaps you could list his stats? seems you have a bit of history w villain. How often is he flatting from the bb? Personally, I flat ~85% if I were him and it were not FT. I think at FT I prob tighten up slightly vs utg raises.

I am not even close to an ICM expert, however based on first glance.... if it were just chipEV I think its a call. You need to have 38% eq vs his range (calling 578k to win 1.544M), and I believe you have way more than that. Obv dependant on how villain plays flush draws typically, as I have not weighed any hands.

With that said, I think the river overbet really polarizes his range to either flushes or bluffs. Cant see a crushing reg jamming a set/straight here. But I could see him turning small pairs into a bluff, or overjamming the flush.

What bluff combos do you think he has? do you thing he would check raise turn with small pairs like 22s and 66s?

Startles

sn1perb0y wrote: »

I can't think of any exact hands that can take this line call flop, check raise turn and jam river.

ah2h, seems like they have it here always. I'm calling in game, because we have a set and I think we have too (well cause I think btp would call)

but with icm it prob a gross fold.

without more info (other than sn status) its tough to suggest they are capable of basically turning a made hand into a bluff vs you. or making a thin value overbet with a set trying to get ak to call.

Ah2x is viable too as dennis explains tough to assume they would x/raise the turn with a fd?

Startles

sn1perb0y wrote: »

The villain is the chip-leader as well as he is aggressive but smart. He completes BB 24% of the time, So any Suited ace is a call.

We should think about how specific this flatting spot is for them compared to an overall flat bb. Final table, ur utg, stack sizes, antes etc.

24% doesn't really represent much in this spot imo.

sn1perb0y

Startles wrote: »

We should think about how specific this flatting spot is for them compared to an overall flat bb. Final table, ur utg, stack sizes, antes etc.

24% doesn't really represent much in this spot imo.

I just meant generally, he flats pretty often and that is just a basic range to follow through depending on what happens on later streets.

pkrfce9

Your turn bet would look weak to him. He could have floated the flop and raised the turn with a pretty wide range. You only called so he can't put you on a monster can he?

I think he would have played a flush draw a lot stronger on the flop.

I think a strong hand would bet an amount you would call with TP or a mid pair which is the kind of hand you seem to have in his eyes. Unless he is playing at a higher level and you just got mind fucked.

Startles

sn1perb0y wrote: »

I just meant generally, he flats pretty often and that is just a basic range to follow through depending on what happens on later streets.

it might be they flat 5% preante and 40% post...

Or they might see you as tight utg and flat very tight.

Or since its a final table they might do the same...or they might be very loose late game expecting players are conservative postflop.

I just seem to feel strongly (compared to others) that such stats should be ignored.

Lets say you have 100 instances over 1000 hands...30 are preantes, 10 are in position vs the sb, 5 are 100bbs deep, 10 are vs the bu ..etc.

We are left with very few relevant instances, and so the aggregate stat of 24% really doesn't represent this spot at all much more than a random number...if we use it for the whole hand we cause mistakes we don't know exist (not to mention we start to look for information in the wrong direction in general).

sn1perb0y

pkrfce9 wrote: »

Your turn bet would look weak to him. He could have floated the flop and raised the turn with a pretty wide range. You only called so he can't put you on a monster can he?

I think he would have played a flush draw a lot stronger on the flop.

I think a strong hand would bet an amount you would call with TP or a mid pair which is the kind of hand you seem to have in his eyes. Unless he is playing at a higher level and you just got mind fucked.

we are 55bbs deep and I'm second in chips, I think it would be very bad to get in on the flop with a flush draw or even a gutshot/flushdraw combo and I think he knows that. I think his flat with a flush draw is standard on the flop, he could raise there and but is going to be tougher on later streets if I flat and he doesn't hit.

I don't understand the thing i put in bold. can you rephrase that? who has a strong hand me or him?

Milo

Greg is saying that Villain would bet an amount that Hero would call assuming Hero has top pair or mid-pair (which is what your betting looks to represent)

Me? I likely would have been all-in before the river, so what do I know?

T8urmoney

super gross spot.....

I think his range is a lot of 2 pair / sets / and pair combo draws...and obv turned straights.

If we don't hit K on river, this would be an easy fold.....but because we do, it kills alot of his range imo.

I expect to be shown a strong hand here....I think a fold is correct, although I could see myself calling alot, and incorrectly.....cuz I just don't fold sets

Monoxide

i fold and am sad about it

reibs

At the cottage so I can't answer w a full range and that, but for bluff combos, I suggest we consider what villain might do with AhJx? Float flop w overs and a back door nut flush draw, check raise turn as bluff when heart doesn't fall. Then when heart comes on river, he knows 100% that u do not have the nuts, and he cannot win showdown. And that u can almost never have flush at all now. Combine that w ur top pairs and JJ/QQ that will now fold...I kinda like it as a complete bluff.

reibs

sn1perb0y wrote: »

The villain is the chip-leader as well as he is aggressive but smart. He completes BB 24% of the time, So any Suited ace is a call.

Yah I mean I agree w startles to an extent. Just feel like it can be of some use. I do not believe 24% is high at all, in fact I am going to check what mine is overall between ante/no antes/ etc and will let u guys know. But I'm assuming he isn't raising too many pots from bb then either (say 10-12% as even a wide range). That means he's folded so far, 2/3 times when someone opens on his bb. Now not all those spots are min raises, so it is skewed. But that still tells me he likely isn't playing a very large portion of the deck.

Also, dude abides is in my stable. Hope he finished one spot behind u.

BlondeFish

At the beginning of the hand, chipleader EvigGli's equity of the $7,999 remaining prize pool is
:

sn1perb0y

T8urmoney wrote: »

super gross spot.....

I think his range is a lot of 2 pair / sets / and pair combo draws...and obv turned straights.

If we don't hit K on river, this would be an easy fold.....but because we do, it kills alot of his range imo.

I expect to be shown a strong hand here....I think a fold is correct, although I could see myself calling alot, and incorrectly.....cuz I just don't fold sets

Thank you for responding here, I don't understand why would he over pot bet river with sets and 2 pair when there is a lot of hands that i beat him with?Also isn't two pair and sets too strong to turn into a bluff here? I think that he would just value bet his two pairs and sets since a jam would just fold worse and get better to call no?

Can't he have a flush-straight combos on the turn like AhXh that would raise there?

End result. I Folded after tanking for my whole time bank and will never know what he had .

PokerStars Hand #119773950720: Tournament #946398696, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXXVII (7000/14000) - 2014/08/06 22:23:10 ET
Table '946398696 47' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: rigaregueira (667244 in chips)
Seat 3: DudeAbides79 (751100 in chips)
Seat 4: TheGoatt (437988 in chips)
Seat 6: EvigGli (948348 in chips)
Seat 7: sn1perb0y (764300 in chips)
Seat 8: skreech112 (360379 in chips)
Seat 9: asiancutiee (417641 in chips)
rigaregueira: posts the ante 1750
DudeAbides79: posts the ante 1750
TheGoatt: posts the ante 1750
EvigGli: posts the ante 1750
sn1perb0y: posts the ante 1750
skreech112: posts the ante 1750
asiancutiee: posts the ante 1750
TheGoatt: posts small blind 7000
EvigGli: posts big blind 14000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to sn1perb0y [Ks Kc]
sn1perb0y: raises 14000 to 28000
skreech112: folds
asiancutiee: folds
rigaregueira: folds
DudeAbides79: folds
TheGoatt: folds
EvigGli: calls 14000
*** FLOP *** [3h Td 4h]
EvigGli: checks
sn1perb0y: bets 31000
EvigGli: calls 31000
*** TURN *** [3h Td 4h] [5c]
EvigGli: checks
sn1perb0y: bets 48000
EvigGli: raises 77000 to 125000
sn1perb0y: calls 77000
*** RIVER *** [3h Td 4h 5c] [Kh]
EvigGli: bets 762598 and is all-in
sn1perb0y: folds
Uncalled bet (762598) returned to EvigGli
EvigGli collected 387250 from pot
EvigGli: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 387250 | Rake 0
Board [3h Td 4h 5c Kh]
Seat 1: rigaregueira folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: DudeAbides79 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: TheGoatt (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: EvigGli (big blind) collected (387250)
Seat 7: sn1perb0y folded on the River
Seat 8: skreech112 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: asiancutiee folded before Flop (didn't bet)

sn1perb0y

BlondeFish wrote: »

At the beginning of the hand, chipleader EvigGli's equity of the $7,999 remaining prize pool is 17.4%. You are 2nd in chips with 15.9% equity. You need 37.5% probability that you have the better hand to make it +cEV to call.

If you call and he shows a flush or straight, then you are eliminated in 7th place with only $398. If your call is correct, you are the chip leader for the $2.4K first place prize and your equity increases to 21%. If you fold, you will have 578,550 left with your equity dropping only slightly to 14%. I'm hoping somebody in the forum can confirm my calculations that you need ~78% probability to make it +$EV to call [x * +5% + (1-x) * -16% + (1-x) * -2% ?].

Your top set of Kings is losing to:
[Ahxh, 6h5h, 7h6h]
Less likely: [A2, 76o, Qhxh & lower flushes; 62]

In a cash game, it may be correct to make a crying call, but with the ICM factor, I should fold and cry even more! Based on previous conversations with sn1perb0y, I believe he would fold in this spot.

I haven't been crying but also whining and thinking of this hand over and over again. Thank you for your insight blondfish

BlondeFish

Milo wrote: »

Me? I likely would have been all-in before the river, so what do I know?

Overbetting all-in UTG with KK would have been +$EV, but not optimal. With the only bigger stack than me in the BB, I would have raised more than a min-raise. Due to the huge difference between the $1,700 second place money and only $398 for next one out, EvigGli the Supernova probably knew that he can put extreme pressure on sn1perb0y such as going all-in in the next hand SB vs BB with ANY TWO CARDS, and most players would not be able to call with the correct range of hands (3% in this case or 99+).

reibs

BlondeFish wrote: »

At the beginning of the hand, chipleader EvigGli's equity of the $7,999 remaining prize pool is 17.4%. You are 2nd in chips with 15.9% equity. You need 37.5% probability that you have the better hand to make it +cEV to call.

If you call and he shows a flush or straight, then you are eliminated in 7th place with only $398. If your call is correct, you are the chip leader for the $2.4K first place prize and your equity increases to 21%. If you fold, you will have 578,550 left with your equity dropping only slightly to 14%. I'm hoping somebody in the forum can confirm my calculations that you need ~78% probability to make it +$EV to call [x * +5% + (1-x) * -16% + (1-x) * -2% ?].

Your top set of Kings is losing to:
[Ahxh, 6h5h, 7h6h]
Less likely: [A2, 76o, Qhxh & lower flushes; 62]

In a cash game, it may be correct to make a crying call, but with the ICM factor, I should fold and cry even more! Based on previous conversations with sn1perb0y, I believe he would fold in this spot.

I need to spend some time learning this. Not that I would use the math in game but it would be good to have a rough idea anyways.

Ur math looks sane but I don't know obv. Thanks tho for showing the math.

pkrfce9

sn1perb0y wrote: »

I haven't been crying but also whining and thinking of this hand over and over again. Thank you for your insight blondfish

I figured you folded and were looking to reinforce you made a good decision.

Maybe strictly from a $ decision folding was correct. I'm not sure but if it was incorrect then probably not by much. I think you can justify either choice by tweaking the parameters one way or the other. What % do you need to be against his range to make a $ profitable call?

On the other hand, if you win this hand it probably positions you well to steamroll the table? Is there any value to you from winning the tourney over and above the cash? I don't know but that might push you more to a call.

I think he shoves way more hands that you beat rather than the other way round. Just not sure if it is profitable to call.

Nice discussion.

tapatalk puts this here to annoy YOU

Unknown

I snap call here and don't feel bad about it

does villian really peel flop with a gutter? no way with that board texture, his x/r on turn is confusing as well

a competent, good player (like whats described) will x/r with a 6x in his hand here, and will bluff river with most high hearts. good players will put you in gross positions like this post , knowing full well about ICM implications

i put him on exactly a lower set or 2 pr here almost always

Also might want to think streets ahead... when you flat the turn, there's no better card for us on the river, and we still folded?

T8urmoney

sn1perb0y wrote: »

Thank you for responding here, I don't understand why would he over pot bet river with sets and 2 pair when there is a lot of hands that i beat him with?Also isn't two pair and sets too strong to turn into a bluff here? I think that he would just value bet his two pairs and sets since a jam would just fold worse and get better to call no?

Can't he have a flush-straight combos on the turn like AhXh that would raise there?

)

Sets and 2 pair would beat most of your perceived range. These over shoves from good players are more often for value, and rarely a bluff in my experience.