All streets?

Startles

had a long discussion with a student on this hand. Thought it might be interesting. Mp is a reg and sb is a rando. We have 1k hands on the reg and I do have hud stats available. Student felt uncomfortable on all streets so I thought I'd post the results from the beginning. I like to talk around the possibilities so we can throw out our thoughts and not worry so much about conclussions

Poker Stars $3.19+$0.31 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t100/t200 Blinds - 8 players - View hand 2543600
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG: t1475 7.38 BBs
UTG+1: t2535 12.68 BBs
MP1: t5103 25.52 BBs
MP2: t6550 32.75 BBs
CO: t3270 16.35 BBs
BTN: t3735 18.68 BBs
SB: t5787 28.93 BBs
Hero (BB): t5715 28.57 BBs

Pre Flop: (t300) Hero is BB with 8 :diamond: 8 :club:
3 folds, MP2 raises to t400, 2 folds, SB calls t300, Hero calls t200

Flop: (t1200) T :spade: 2 :club: 4 :diamond: (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets t500, SB folds, Hero calls t500

Turn: (t2200) 4 :club: (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks

River: (t2200) 8 :spade: (2 players)
Hero bets t1400, MP2 folds

Final Pot: t2200
Hero mucks 8 :diamond: 8 :club:
Hero wins t2200

Bfillmaff

Pre Flop: (t300) Hero is BB with 8 :diamond: 8 :club:
3 folds, MP2 raises to t400, 2 folds, SB calls t300, Hero calls t200

Standard.


Flop: (t1200) T :spade: 2 :club: 4 :diamond: (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets t500, SB folds, Hero calls t500

I don't see calling the cbet as bad at all, but wondering if raising would be better? I do like the call if our HUD says MP2 might keep barrelling, otherwise a raise to around 1800 could end the hand before more overcards come out. I *think* we leave ourself enough room to fold if MP2 shoves.

Turn: (t2200) 4 :club: (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks

weird check by MP2 but likely gave up after being called on the flop. I like the check as I don't think a donk bet makes sense here.


River: (t2200) 8 :spade: (2 players)
Hero bets t1400, MP2 folds

ding ding ding! well played. MP2 doesn't have much based on the turn check, so as played I think we can bet a bit less here, maybe 900 or so?

Startles

What about squeezing pre?

Unknown

Why is student uncomfortable?

Board didn't change on the turn and we got there

Also, u know what I would do preeeee

reibs

I think r/c pre is prob best, depending how laggy the reg is in MP. 25-30bb stack is the perfect size to start 3b/f some bluffs IMO (not 88 tho bfill), so I also like to mix in some 3b/c rather than just ship the 28bb the first time. With that said, I do look at some stats first. I am looking for the reg to have a low call 3bet stat. We really don't want to see the MP reg flat, then allow the rando to flat behind and then see a flop 3 ways.

I don't think flatting to set mine is good either as we do not have quite enough behind.

If the reg folds, and the rando flats I think we are laughing, knowing we are up against a weak range, with a great hand.

As played postflop, I think played fine, bet smaller on river though I think. Get some value from one pair hands. I'd bet 950ish?

Is anyone leading turn though?

Unknown

U gotta stop donking oop lol

reibs

OHTNCTRHM wrote: »

U gotta stop donking oop lol

u gotta stop ASSuming things.

Startles

Bfillmaff wrote: »

Flop: (t1200) T :spade: 2 :club: 4 :diamond: (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets t500, SB folds, Hero calls t500

I don't see calling the cbet as bad at all, but wondering if raising would be better? I do like the call if our HUD says MP2 might keep barrelling, otherwise a raise to around 1800 could end the hand before more overcards come out. I *think* we leave ourself enough room to fold if MP2 shoves.

This we might look into I think. The possibility of x/raising (or even leading), and the stats we might have on our villain. And also the reasons for raising (you allude to protection as one), in relation to the range villain has.

Startles

reibs wrote: »

I think r/c pre is prob best, depending how laggy the reg is in MP. 25-30bb stack is the perfect size to start 3b/f some bluffs IMO (not 88 tho bfill), so I also like to mix in some 3b/c rather than just ship the 28bb the first time. With that said, I do look at some stats first. I am looking for the reg to have a low call 3bet stat. We really don't want to see the MP reg flat, then allow the rando to flat behind and then see a flop 3 ways.

we have 993 hands on villain. Their vpip/pfr is 19/17. I'm not sure what the fold 3bet stat is on the hud picture I have. What sample size do we need, I mean obv we don't have enough hands, but what are we looking for? Also what does a fold to 3bet stat represent. For example if villains fold to 3bet is high (what is high for this stat), how is he generally playing his cards then? Or if they fold to 3 bets a low %, what is his general strategy that causes this?

I wrote this in terms of fold to 3bet since its a more common stat. But perhaps you do mean call vs 3bet in the fold of a flat which seems to be a subset related to the times we fold to 3bets.

Anyways which ever stat you are thinking about, we have vpip and pfr so we should then be able to explain their strategies preflop in the context of how they would respond to 3 bets.

Unknown

Why isn't hero trying to get it in tho

Startles

OHTNCTRHM wrote: »

Why isn't hero trying to get it in tho

that might be a great conclusion, but I think the community is discussing the options and the ranges. I think 3bet getting it in even pre is somewhat reasonable to explore. If our villain is playing 20/20ish in their stats, what kind of hands might they have, and what kind of hands might they 4bet shove?

Unknown

Startles wrote: »

that might be a great conclusion, but I think the community is discussing the options and the ranges. I think 3bet getting it in even pre is somewhat reasonable to explore. If our villain is playing 20/20ish in their stats, what kind of hands might they have, and what kind of hands might they 4bet shove?

KQo+

I flip here with less than 30 beibers :frown:

reibs

Startles wrote: »

we have 993 hands on villain. Their vpip/pfr is 19/17. I'm not sure what the fold 3bet stat is on the hud picture I have. What sample size do we need, I mean obv we don't have enough hands, but what are we looking for? Also what does a fold to 3bet stat represent. For example if villains fold to 3bet is high (what is high for this stat), how is he generally playing his cards then? Or if they fold to 3 bets a low %, what is his general strategy that causes this?

I wrote this in terms of fold to 3bet since its a more common stat. But perhaps you do mean call vs 3bet in the fold of a flat which seems to be a subset related to the times we fold to 3bets.

Anyways which ever stat you are thinking about, we have vpip and pfr so we should then be able to explain their strategies preflop in the context of how they would respond to 3 bets.

Yeah I have both call 3 bet and also fold to 3 bet on my hud, but I rarely get enough of a sample size to properly use it. So when I do have a bit of a sample, what I do is I make some generalizations. Maybe that's a mistake, but I try to use any info I have.

If I see villain has folded to 3bets 5/7 times or something, I then look at call 3bet. If its 0/7, (meaning he 4 bet the other 2 times obv), then I can make a pretty reasonable conclusion that villain doesn't like to flat 3 bets, and will either 4 bet or fold most of the time. I think this tells us to be polarized, so when he 4 bets, its an easy fold for us w our bluffs, easy call w value. I think the 88 goes in the value category, but this is where I might be wrong.

What is a lot? I am still working on that, and I don't know if I will ever know. I think its more just a generalization thing. Not a science, more just seeing trends. I agree that the sample is very small, however it is info that we need to use imo. If we don't use it, I think we are giving up edge. The trick is to use it properly and against the right villains though.

Lastly, I don't think many will agree here, but I think pfr is a bad stat to use. I think its misleading in the sense that any raise/3 bet/iso/etc goes into it. I prefer to use raise first in. Then when you click it, have it by position.

How do you figure we can learn about villains 3 bet game with only vpip and pfr though?

Startles

reibs wrote: »

How do you figure we can learn about villains 3 bet game with only vpip and pfr though?

I think we stand to learn from it but not necessarily to narrow villains 3betting ranges. But it does help us have a decent idea of their opening range (although rfi might definitely be a better marker). We do have to generalize to some degree, and sometimes that might be useful. But with fold to 3bet or call 3bet we can still look behind the stat and describe how it is created.

For instance if villain opens 20% of hands then we can look at what range that consists of and start to describe what hands they are doing what with in terms of certain 3bet stats.

Its helpful, although maybe not in an immediately identifiable way.

I find that in general players are lax about stats in this way. We say yes its a small sample, yes we are being general etc, but we can define what a stat really means by looking at the underlying strategies they represent in terms of overall ranges.

If thats just a mess of words, maybe we can just outline villains preflop range based on their vpip/pfr and start to look at what different kind of responses to 3 bet stats would look like in terms of villains ranges/strategies.

Bfillmaff

reibs wrote: »

I think r/c pre is prob best, depending how laggy the reg is in MP. 25-30bb stack is the perfect size to start 3b/f some bluffs IMO (not 88 tho bfill), so I also like to mix in some 3b/c rather than just ship the 28bb the first time. With that said, I do look at some stats first. I am looking for the reg to have a low call 3bet stat. We really don't want to see the MP reg flat, then allow the rando to flat behind and then see a flop 3 ways.

I don't think flatting to set mine is good either as we do not have quite enough behind.

I am not sure I like getting it in for 30BB's pre with 88?

My thoughts on the pf call are that we are not just set mining but are also setting ourselves up to evaluate the flop before commiting. With a lot of broadway hands in villians range, we can fold cheaply on say a KQ2 flop etc, or continue/get it in on a beauty flop like we had here.

But again, i am not sure. 88 seems like the borderline.

Bfillmaff

On the other hand, i didnt take into account that the just call allows a 3 way flop - so another argument for 3b pre for sure. Which brings us back around to 3b/c vs 3b/fold?

Startles

I hesitate to give ranges of my own, since it helps me more to hear how others are viewing villains ranges, and because I'll be subject to my own bias. But if we can come to any sort of concensus about villains preflop range we can look at the math of the spot in terms of different 3bet sizes vs different response to the 3bets from the mp villain.

reibs

Startles wrote: »

I hesitate to give ranges of my own, since it helps me more to hear how others are viewing villains ranges, and because I'll be subject to my own bias. But if we can come to any sort of concensus about villains preflop range we can look at the math of the spot in terms of different 3bet sizes vs different response to the 3bets from the mp villain.

pfr of 17 overall, so from middle position?? I'd put it somewhere around:

(15.8%) AA-44,AKo-A9o,KQo-KJo,AKs-A7s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,98s

Startles

I think I have a decent snapshot of the hand (I can often make fatal mistakes doing this tho but it passes the sanity test, but only mine)

It might seem daunting at first but sometimes certain lines start to cancel themselves out upon further inquiry...



So the tree is MP3 min raises 16.7% >> sb flat 17.2 >> bb flats 0% >> BB 3bets all in 12.3% >>> mp3 calls 6.7% >> sb folds 100%

We have the sb always folding so their flatting range shouldn't matter but i put a decent range in just in case and capped their nuts hands at 50% flat 50% shove.

All ranges are locked except the bb (hero's) 3bet shoving range and mp3's calling vs our 3bet.

Here then if villain calls 77+ ATs+ and AQo+ we would be shoving 33+ Ats+, Ajo+, KTs+, KQo, QTs+ JTs and T9s

66 is pretty marginal tho and we can prob stand to drop KQo T9s.

If we narrow villains preflop range to 12% then 88 becomes a fold if villain calls 99+ AQs+ and AKo.

Of course we can still choose to bet a smaller size, possibly to call or to fold. And furthermore I left the sb out and had them folding 100% to our 3bet shove.

We might then want to think about the small blinds strategy and range.

Startles

I like flatting because we have a weaker player in the sb (where we make our money) and the reg will likely play his strategy face up (we have position on them. I think we can do more than set mine.