Flat ep raise from bb with K3s vs reg

reibsreibs
in MTT Strategy
I have 405 hands on him.

rfi EP is 26 (19/73). Cbet flop 73(16/22) / turn 60(3/5).

No fold to turn donk info, but fold to flop donk 25(1/4).

Do you like the turn lead? I am thinking a bit bigger sizing would have been better. I was trying to induce a shove.

What to do on river now? pot is 57.5k and stack is 39.2k

PokerStars Hand #118432291278: Tournament #929516719, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXIV (1200/2400) - 2014/07/06 19:50:11 ET
Table '929516719 124' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: REEBS77 (63835 in chips)
Seat 2: meyong2012 (203334 in chips)
Seat 3: riskysoldier (136338 in chips)
Seat 4: keksi1987 (3483 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 5: stekubuk (36804 in chips)
Seat 6: KYNEZ (87026 in chips)
Seat 7: zeroflashVIP (71006 in chips)
Seat 8: HOBBO20 (88738 in chips)
Seat 9: MOY_STYLE (60602 in chips)
REEBS77: posts the ante 300
meyong2012: posts the ante 300
riskysoldier: posts the ante 300
keksi1987: posts the ante 300
stekubuk: posts the ante 300
KYNEZ: posts the ante 300
zeroflashVIP: posts the ante 300
HOBBO20: posts the ante 300
MOY_STYLE: posts the ante 300
MOY_STYLE: posts small blind 1200
REEBS77: posts big blind 2400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to REEBS77 [Ks 3s]
meyong2012: folds
riskysoldier: raises 2600 to 5000
keksi1987: folds
stekubuk: folds
KYNEZ: calls 5000
zeroflashVIP: folds
HOBBO20: folds
MOY_STYLE: folds
REEBS77: calls 2600
*** FLOP *** [9c Qs Ts]
REEBS77: checks
riskysoldier: bets 7200
KYNEZ: folds
REEBS77: calls 7200
*** TURN *** [9c Qs Ts] [2s]
REEBS77: bets 12121
riskysoldier: calls 12121
*** RIVER *** [9c Qs Ts 2s] [9s]
REEBS77:

Comments

  • pkrfce9pkrfce9
    If you will never fold here then go ahead and shove.

    tapatalk puts this here to annoy YOU
  • BfillmaffBfillmaff
    OK, I'll pretend I know what I'm talking about for a second:

    On the turn the pot is 26K, I think leading is fine but I think I would have made it around 20-22K instead of 12K.

    That extra few thousand is pivotal because you have a "play for stacks" type of hand and need to work at getting it in. With a 22K turn bet we get to the river with pot 70k stack 27k which is so much easier for your opponent to pay off than pot 57.5k stack 39.2k.

    That is assuming he has hands like AQ AT QT Q9 KQ 99 JT J9 TT KJ J8 etc. Depending on how much junk makes up the rest of his range and your read on the guy, then as played I suppose could induce one of those awesome online blowup bluff shoves... maybe... sometimes... I think...

    As for the river... that :9s is about the worst possible card for you but you still have a good hand. As played I probably shut down and check call the river?


    I assume he showed you TT?
  • UnknownUnknown
    ^^

    wat_is_love-105534.gif
  • UnknownUnknown
    I hate the turn lead

    X/shove turn
  • philliiveyphilliivey
    Check raise flop? Lead turn feels bad river is fkn awful like bfill says
  • reibsreibs
    He didn't show me TT. I actually don't know what he had as I shoved river, hoping to get called by one of his combo Js hands. He folded, so I can only assume he had two pair or a straight. Looking back the shove looks awful and I think check/decide is better. Prob check-fold vs fish and check-call vs regs?

    To be honest I was really thinking that my turn lead would look weak as most will go for the x/raise here once they hit the flush. Esp vs a (probably) thinking opponent. However, regardless I need to make it bigger, as I will be bigger here when I bluff. Like 16-18k maybe instead. I think going any bigger is a mistake, but lets see what others think.

    What do you think of donking the flop? We have flush draw, over card, and a gutter. Not 100% sure about this though... esp 3 ways.
  • reibsreibs
    OHTNCTRHM wrote: »
    ^^

    wat_is_love-105534.gif


    Keep ur dirty gifs outta my strat thread H! :p
  • BfillmaffBfillmaff
    doesn't shoving the turn fold out AQ AT QT Q9 KQ JT J9 - hands that would improve to 2nd best or maybe even call turn and river bets but not a turn all in?

    We do get a call from 99 TT QQ KJ J8 but I think those hands would get it in anyway.


    Keep in mind we're talking about the turn.
  • StartlesStartles
    This river card sucks imo.
  • UnknownUnknown
    Startles wrote: »
    This river card sucks imo.

    :confused:
  • Card DeadCard Dead
    Startles wrote: »
    This river card sucks imo.

    Do you also do commercials for hotels.com?


    As for the hand, I think calling the flop is fine here as you are plenty deep to speculate with an ample potential payoff to make it worthwhile.

    I agree that the turn bet is too small. To me, thgis flop is right in V's range as he is the mondo-big stack at the table and min-raised from EP, so he probably has enough equity with hands like KQ, KJ, QJ, JT, etc.... to flat and see how the river plays out. He only shoves the turn if he has a monster to protect.

    I also don't like the river shove. First, you are only getting called by a hand that beats you and folding out lesser hands. Second, you take away his option to bet if he was floating and looking for a good bluff card on the river.
    Now, if you felt you couldn't call a shove on the river and would have to fold, it's a good (but dangerous) blocker bet.

    Considering how much of his range could have potentially gotten there on the river AsQx.....TT, Q9, T9, i would favour the check-re-evaluate option here.'

    .....but I'm a nit.
  • UnknownUnknown
    U have a nice looking dog card dead.
  • Card DeadCard Dead
    I know. She was the love of my life.

    Thanks.
  • StartlesStartles
    reibs wrote: »

    No fold to turn donk info, but fold to flop donk 25(1/4).
    This is a leak I think. And it might be a interesting example because it might have bled into this hand history.

    We need to follow the math on what size of sample is needed, and ACTUALLY begin to look at the underlying numbers. If we just say "Ya I know sample size", then I think we miss the true understanding and value we can gain from it.

    We NEED to at least begin to define the proper sample size needed...

    What does it mean to fold flop donk 25% and what are we extrapolating from it in 4 times, 25, 100, 1000, 10000 etc?
  • reibsreibs
    Startles wrote: »
    This is a leak I think. And it might be a interesting example because it might have bled into this hand history.

    We need to follow the math on what size of sample is needed, and ACTUALLY begin to look at the underlying numbers. If we just say "Ya I know sample size", then I think we miss the true understanding and value we can gain from it.

    We NEED to at least begin to define the proper sample size needed...

    What does it mean to fold flop donk 25% and what are we extrapolating from it in 4 times, 25, 100, 1000, 10000 etc?

    4 times doesn't tell you much, which is why I include the instances, to let you decipher what you will. I am just the messenger, looking for answers :baffled:

    interesting to note tho the # of hands I have on villain, yet still not enough sample for donk bets. With that said, the rfi and the cbet stats are enough to get a bit of info from in my opinion.
  • UnknownUnknown
    we generally lead for pot control, or for hand protection.. we dont really need to do either here... :frown:
  • StartlesStartles
    I wrote a bunch and the deleted it cause I change my mind.

    I still think your hud work is a leak :p

    I think your good here, just bet a little bigger on the turn and shove the river. We can bet call the turn obv, and if we leave less on the river then they are more inclined to call with worse, and in general it won't be a heart. I thought about check raise, which is fine but its is a standard reg they don't double barrel a lot of medium or air hands here as the flop cbet was just to iso the pot a little. So I think I like the lead here.
  • T8urmoneyT8urmoney
    Don't like a donk lead on turn....either bet as Bfill stated, or I do enjoy check shoving alot too against aggressive players.
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