Playing Super draws, hand analysis and thoughts please!
Okay so I have two hands I am looking to hear thoughts on please.
Hand 1
$0.50/$1.00 cash game
open to $3 from the hijack, called from the cutoff. Button re-raises to $11.
Hijack and cutoff call. pot $34.50
Flops comes Ah Qc 8c
hijack and cutoff both check, button bets out $15
Hijack re-raises to $45 cutoff folds.
button has 10cJc.
Pot is $95
Hijack has $75 behind
Button has $250 behind
What do you do in this position if your the button and why?
Hand 2
MTT blinds are 100/200 ante 25
Utg +1 limps in, folded around to the button. Button calls, SB folds and BB checks.
Pot $925
Flops comes Qd 8h 3h
BB leads for $200 utg +1 calls Button raises to $400, BB raises to $600 UTG+1 calls and Button calls.
pot $2,725.
Turn comes Jd
BB leads out for $1498 UTG+1 calls
pot is $5721.
BB has $9704 behind and UTG+1 has $1593.
Button has Kh10h with $15,365 behind.
What do you do in this position and why?
Any and all answers are appreciated. I wont say in what position I am in, just want to see decision making on here in these spots, then I will reveal and my thoughts.
Hand 1
$0.50/$1.00 cash game
open to $3 from the hijack, called from the cutoff. Button re-raises to $11.
Hijack and cutoff call. pot $34.50
Flops comes Ah Qc 8c
hijack and cutoff both check, button bets out $15
Hijack re-raises to $45 cutoff folds.
button has 10cJc.
Pot is $95
Hijack has $75 behind
Button has $250 behind
What do you do in this position if your the button and why?
Hand 2
MTT blinds are 100/200 ante 25
Utg +1 limps in, folded around to the button. Button calls, SB folds and BB checks.
Pot $925
Flops comes Qd 8h 3h
BB leads for $200 utg +1 calls Button raises to $400, BB raises to $600 UTG+1 calls and Button calls.
pot $2,725.
Turn comes Jd
BB leads out for $1498 UTG+1 calls
pot is $5721.
BB has $9704 behind and UTG+1 has $1593.
Button has Kh10h with $15,365 behind.
What do you do in this position and why?
Any and all answers are appreciated. I wont say in what position I am in, just want to see decision making on here in these spots, then I will reveal and my thoughts.
Comments
first, i'm curious about the preflop button raise. is this standard? this is not your concern here, but i was just curious.
on the flop, what kind of hand is HJ check/raising with? AA and QQ are probably reraising preflop i'd imagine so i'd omit those. 88 improved to trips is possible for a check/raise (although i personally would think leading out with them is a better play).
maybe an Acxc holding top pair and nut flush may check/raise. AcKc is a possibility and may look like a good check/raising hand for villain. AQ two pair check/raise maybe as well. i don't see HJ doing this with the Kc 2nd nut flush draw and no straight draw (as you are holding blockers for that hand).
AcKc were far behind. 88 is about 60%-40%. AQ is pretty much a flip. pretty sure i'm putting HJ all in here.
first, what's with the limit play on the flop? $200 into $900 pot, then min raised to $400, then $600? that's some crazy playing there (unless this is actually limit holdem but i'm assuming not due to the BB's turn bet).
seems like UTG+1 is just desperately chasing a flush draw for his tournament life so i'm not too worried about him.
as far as BB's line goes, i really don't know what he could have. 2 pair is possible. i don't see him making this line with a weak flush draw but it's possible. just calling the 3bet flop and then leading the Jd turn is strange to me. T9 chasing the gut shot and getting there or maybe Th9h would make more sense i guess. still a strange line.
idk, i think i'll leave this one to others.
The weird flop play doesn't scream anything overly strong, so we have fold equity, the squeeze working for us, and then 17 outs if we do happen to get a call. Effective stack is 9.7k with 5.7k in the pot... close enough, shove it.
Taking a look at the ranges you are ahead... not sure if this is 100% but should be close?
After the weird turn action, we can narrow down both ranges quite a bit.
UTG+1 looks like this after the turn:
and the BB has a bunch more suited cards (in hearts) given the free look preflop and the action on the flop:
which looks like this:
now if we shove on the turn, one of them could call with these 124 hands
out of the 400+ (average) in the turn ranges. So we are getting a fold 2 out of 3 times, and 1 out of 3 times we are getting it in with 34% equity:
Given that there are two players in the pot, double the chance of a player calling, for a total of a 50% shot at a fold/call.
So 50% of the time we get two folds and take down $5721
and 50% of the time we get it in for 6k (average of the 2 eff stacks) as a 34% to win.
so 34% of the time that we get it in, we win 11721, and 66% of the time we lose 6000.
There is also the scenario that both call, in which case you actually gain equity, but to keep it simple I won't include it.
Add it all up: (5721 * .5) + ((11721 * .34) + (-6000 * .66) *.5)
= 2860 + ( (3985 + -3960) * .5)
= 2860 + 12.5
EV = +2872.5
verdict, SHIP IT!! Thoughts?
Like if your in a live game, and unless your rainman, or someone way better at math than myself, those numbers would be nowhere in site at that moment.
So maybe some questions based on player feel, or table dynamics or anything etc. Just curious what else people can offer, suggest that I can learn from and evaluate.
strat talk on this forum is dying
i know some choose to remain quiet because they don't feel that they are "good enough" to comment (myself included), but since literally no one is commenting lately i've been trying to give my input.
it'd be greatly appreciated if some of the better players could find some time to help us out. i remember a time when strat threads would run pages long with multiple suggestions and dialogue *sigh*
personally, i haven't been playing a ton lately, but i'm starting to pick it up with the summer coming. there's a good chance i'll be posting questions in here more soon. hopefully it'll gain some momentum.
EDIT: i blame those who complain about this forum and the lack of poker talk, and use that as an excuse to not comment in actual poker content threads. seems to me they're just shooting themselves in the foot, but what do i know.
To me those are all good and swell, and most are geared towards A.) online play and B.) after game analysis since nobody has 10 mins every hand to be punching things into programs, doing all the exact math. I play by feel and basic math understand of the game.
my .02
at least it's free. usually you have to pay for that kind of thing.
OK, can't resist:
Button range once he raises against 2 "limps", (we'll assume that we don't know he holds JcTc)
HJ and cutoff ranges after flatting the pf 3bet are similar to each other:
Button is betting his whole range here, it's a good board to c-bet and 2 players checked, so we gain no information from this bet.
We get check-raised so we know that Hijack has hit this flop, either with a hand, a draw, or both. We can take a few hands out of his range, which now looks like this:
Range vs range, Button is a slight underdog at 45/55.
With JcTc specifically, Button is a 51% favorite against HJ's range:
Seems like a perfect spot to shove. Out of the 141 hands in HJ's range, he can call a shove with 48 of them, so we're getting a fold 2/3 of the time and taking the pot down with Jack high. The other 1/3 of the time we are getting it in and are in pretty good shape with 40% equity:
HJ's calling range and our equity against it:
Our equity is going down big time once a turn card comes out, and pushing our 1% edge we can safely get it in now and really not mind either a fold or a call. By shoving it now we also avoid the inevitable $75 bet from the HJ on the turn card.
Adding up the numbers for shoving the flop:
2/3 of the time we get a fold and win $95
40% of 1/3 of the time we get a call and win $170
60% of 1/3 of the time we get a call and lose $105
Or: (95 * .66) + ((170 * .4) + (-105 * .6) * .33)
Or: 62.7 + 1.65
For a total EV of +$64.35 if we shove on the flop. Get it in!
I love breaking hands down like this after the fact. Sure, you can't necessarily do this level of thinking on the fly, but it can validate your "feel", expose other options, and most importantly develops shortcuts that CAN be used on the fly. I think there is much much more to it than counting outs and figuring out what you are up against. IMO working out and watching the hand ranges narrow down from pre-flop to river is a great way to visualize what they actually look like in game. I know my range evaluation in game has gotten better each time I break one of these hands down at home... and if nothing else it at least gets discussion going!
knowing his hand, he called almost 10% of his stack with that garbage, OOP? shame on you andrew! but i suppose he KNEW he could outplay 2 players OOP, right?
on the flop, your hand is strong. you have 1 out to the straight flush, 6 outs to the nut straight and 8 outs to a flush but this could easily be second best.
I would assume he is bluffing 10% of the time. Having a 3rd player still to act even though he checked the first time around could indicate a smaller likelihood of a bluff here. Given the bet sizing, he is never folding with a made hand or strong draw (K high flush or similar straight draw). I would not put him on AA, KK, QQ or AK. Maybe AQ, A8s, Acxc, Kc9c, JT, KJ, AJ or 88?
I don't think calling is ever a good move here. So push or fold. Go ahead and stove that. My guess is you have 30-40% equity. My intuition tells me it is a fold but it could be close. fold > push >> call.
well, there are some tricks to this that the 'pros' on here won't share with you. (are there any left?)
i've looked into it but haven't put in enough effort to really master it. if i get more serious about playing cash games i'm sure it will be very useful stuff. if you and andrew are serious about it, i'd like to join your study group and get deeper into this.
If I have the time and inclination I'll take a stab later.
tapatalk puts this here to annoy YOU
Yeah you are probably right given the stack sizes. That will change the numbers a bit, I'll run it again tomorrow but I still think shove > fold.
Here is the range in question, we can definitely take out 55/44/33/22, 87s / 67s, ATo, and A9s to A6s:
tapatalk puts this here to annoy YOU
For hand 1,
If i was button i'm jamming in this spot, although HJ would get 2.6/1 and would be getting the odds to call a ton of times, we are ahead a lot of the times and we do want him to call.
If we give HJ the tightest range which would be 88,A8s,A8o,Q8s,Q8o,TJo,TJs
we are ahead 53% of the time.
Hand 2,
Is this NL Holdem or Limit holdem? the raise sizes are very weird pot is 925 then bb leads to 200 then a raise to 400??:confused2:
On the turn after the maniac action going on I will check behind if it was checked to me, also i'd rather get the straight than the flush since someone could have a flush combo with Ah. The sizing to 400 on the button doesn't change anything i'd rather just call or raise bigger because raising to 400 is useless.
I'm not sure but i think utg +1 is super strong, like QJhh or 33s but idk why would he limp.
I would see what is the action on the turn and try to get to the river as cheaply as possible then value you town on the river if i hit. If there was a lot of action on the turn i'd look at my odds then decide but after all the action on the flop i'm not loving my hand as well as its only a draw.
Hand 2: Flop play by everyone is weird but whatever. I'd just flat the turn with position and bomb river for value if you hit.
On a side note, I'd put the stack sizes and hero's hand at the start of the hand history. Especially without stack sizes, you're kind of forced to read the hand twice.
There is absolutely no scenario where you are winning this pot with a shove uncontested. UTG+1 calls off 1500 and you think he folds his remaining 1600 getting something like 5.5:1?
Shoving is probably +EV but so is the much lower variance option of flatting. This early in the tournament, the disadvantage of having 20bb (shoving and losing) compared to 70bb (flatting and losing) is much greater than any impact winning this pot will have. Easy flat especially in position, imo. Out of position, it's a bit closer but I'd probably still flat if the pot size and bet were the same.