Nut flush draws
Recently at the 230 deepstack at Mohawk I punted my stack with a nut flush draw on the flop. Just wanted to get some input on how to play this hand.
Approx 20 bbs stack blinds were 400 - 800 but next level was going to start in approx 4 mins.
I was low stack and we had just got down to 8 players remaining.
In late position I limped into a 4 way pot with A 8 clubs
Flop was Qc 7c 2h
UTG + 1 bet out approximately half pot. Tight player
UTG + 2 raised approx 4.5 k
Fold
Hero jammed
UTG + 1 folded
UTG + 2 called with A Q for TPTK
I figured he had hit the Q but I was hoping I had nut flush draw and my A was good. Didn't put him on AQ as he hadn't raised pre.
Approx 20 bbs stack blinds were 400 - 800 but next level was going to start in approx 4 mins.
I was low stack and we had just got down to 8 players remaining.
In late position I limped into a 4 way pot with A 8 clubs
Flop was Qc 7c 2h
UTG + 1 bet out approximately half pot. Tight player
UTG + 2 raised approx 4.5 k
Fold
Hero jammed
UTG + 1 folded
UTG + 2 called with A Q for TPTK
I figured he had hit the Q but I was hoping I had nut flush draw and my A was good. Didn't put him on AQ as he hadn't raised pre.
Comments
Preflop pot is approx. 3600 (4 limpers plus SB). Post flop, UTG+1 bets 1800, UTG+2 raises 4.5K which means pot is now 11.7K (3600+1800+1800+4500).
You have 15.2K left which means when you shove it means that UTG+2 only has to call 8.9K more to win 20.6K, ie he is getting better than 2-1. Unless he is bluffing he is not folding so little fold equity...
You therefore have to end up with the best hand, ie make the flush.. Depending on whether or not he has a Q without an A it means you are between 36 and 45% to win. With little fold equity this is pretty thin...
Unless you think there is a reasonable chance UTG+2 folds, I fold, you are only in for 1BB. Now if you have A,2 of clubs, different story. That may be enough to make the difference...
I agree with the great analysis of comp, this is very thin, usually people jam the nut-flush draw (36%) since we also have fold equity that covers the 14%, if people call 100% of the time its never profitable to jam flush draws.
Your A is good most of the time the way the hand was played but unfortunately he had your A crushed.
I think this depends on weather you want to gamble your stack or not, If i was the shortest stack i would jam here since there isn't any ICM factors but if there were 2-3 people with 10bbs i would fold. After-all 20bbs is a stack that still has room to play with.
If you double up to 40bbs where does it put you in chips? 1st,2nd?
I Think calling or folding are both justified in this spot and its pretty close.
Absolutely. BPTK and nut flush draw is a hand comp can't put down!
Folding is the best option. You got to see the flop cheaply, but the action was pumped and re-pumped before it even got to you. You have to assume UTG+2 has a made hand (especially since you hold the nut draw). Because of the money UTG+2 already put in (as calculated by comp), he's not going to fold to your shove.
You put your tourney life on the line with your draw and hoped to get lucky by hitting your flush or spiking an ace (which wouldn't have helped anyway). I would have folded and picked a better spot since your 20 BB stack had a lot of play left and you should have felt comfortable letting this one go.
I'm also never calling off 40% of my stack here to see one more card, fold or shove is the only option imo and since we already ruled out shoving, folding it is.. Any other thoughts.
Cheers!
There were a couple big stacks 70-80k and a the rest were over twice my stack. I felt that I had to double up soon or be anted and blinded off. But in hindsight, I still had some play left.
Thanks for your feedback!