Did I miss an opportunity here?

The Prophet 22The Prophet 22
in Analyze My Hand
PokerStars Hand #113744131770: Tournament #881754340, $5.00+$0.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXX (6000/12000) - 2014/03/23 22:35:11 ET
Table '881754340 204' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: rickyibrah45 (350469 in chips)
Seat 2: genoy933 (31684 in chips)
Seat 3: MauroNetoBR (464560 in chips)
Seat 4: chorch14 (357817 in chips)
Seat 5: TheKanj31 (26026 in chips)
Seat 6: roger78diniz (115799 in chips)
Seat 7: Hager Crag (109759 in chips)
Seat 8: Prophet 22 (237843 in chips)
Seat 9: cznsnowy91 (211182 in chips)
rickyibrah45: posts the ante 1500
genoy933: posts the ante 1500
MauroNetoBR: posts the ante 1500
chorch14: posts the ante 1500
TheKanj31: posts the ante 1500
roger78diniz: posts the ante 1500
Hager Crag: posts the ante 1500
Prophet 22: posts the ante 1500
cznsnowy91: posts the ante 1500
rickyibrah45: posts small blind 6000
genoy933: posts big blind 12000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Prophet 22 [8h 8c]
MauroNetoBR: folds
chorch14: raises 14520 to 26520
TheKanj31: folds
roger78diniz: folds
Hager Crag: folds
Prophet 22: calls 26520
cznsnowy91: folds
rickyibrah45: folds
genoy933: raises 3664 to 30184 and is all-in
chorch14: calls 3664
Prophet 22: calls 3664
*** FLOP *** [6d Jd Jh]
chorch14: bets 45888
Prophet 22: folds [8h 8c]
Uncalled bet (45888) returned to chorch14
*** TURN *** [6d Jd Jh] [9c]
*** RIVER *** [6d Jd Jh 9c] [3d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
genoy933: shows [6h Qc] (two pair, Jacks and Sixes)
chorch14: shows [Ks As] (a pair of Jacks)
genoy933 collected 110052 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 110052 | Rake 0
Board [6d Jd Jh 9c 3d]
Seat 1: rickyibrah45 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: genoy933 (big blind) showed [6h Qc] and won (110052) with two pair, Jacks and Sixes
Seat 3: MauroNetoBR folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: chorch14 showed [Ks As] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 5: TheKanj31 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: roger78diniz folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: Hager Crag folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Prophet 22 folded on the Flop
Seat 9: cznsnowy91 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Comments

  • The_AwesomeThe_Awesome
    One thing PokerTracker found in my leak report was that I fold to flop c-bets too often. Seems like you might have the same problem.

    Since then I've tried to correct for that. I'd probably raise a decent raise here to test the c-bet because that was a fairly hard to hit flop for the preflop better. He's going to have to beleive you because you will be putting in a significant portion of your stack. If he comes back over top you can get still away. He did raise it from early position so an over pair isn't out of the question.

    Of course this is easier to say knowing the outcome.
  • The Prophet 22The Prophet 22
    thanks. range was a face including the over pair. If I really believed he had AK or AQ, I would have pushed the situation, should I gave pushed a little harder pre? Probably not because if he pushed back I would have folded.

    calling trig anyone bueller
  • The_AwesomeThe_Awesome
    Hard to define a range here without knowing the player. Plus someone is all in so the 'we should check it down' situation is another wild card. You just can't count on people doing this by the book especially online. But man does it f&*k with your judgement making you weigh the better hands higher.

    Hands you beat:

    AK (16) AQ (16) maybe a lower pair

    Hands you are behind badly:

    AA (6) KK (6) QQ (6) JJ (1) AJ (8) 66 (3) maybe KJ (16) QJ (16)

    I'd adjust to:

    AK (16) AQ (16) maybe a lower pair (6)

    AA (6) KK (6) QQ (6) JJ (1) AJ (8) 66 (3) maybe KJ (16-10) QJ (16-8)

    So 38 hands you are ahead to 44 you are badly behind.
  • trigstrigs
    that's a tough spot.

    preflop, i think you're fine. short stack push is mostly insignificant. play it out like it's heads up with some dead money in there. however, the fact that it wasn't a full reraise and the original raiser was only able to call makes it a little more difficult to play since if he actually does have a big pocket pair or a premium hand he can't raise preflop again. i really think that's what causes most of the issues in this hand.

    we could float the flop simply because it's a paired board and chances are villain missed it. but that being said, there are a lot of turn cards that i am probably folding to. if you shove, i don't think AA, KK, QQ or any J is folding. and again, i'm concerned about the bigger pocket pairs that are disguised with the preflop action.

    any reads on villain at all? considering you started the hand with 20ish BBs, i don't think folding the flop is bad as you still have 17ish left to play with.

    honestly, it's a tough spot, but i'd probably lean towards calling/pushing than folding on the flop though. if i was forced to choose, knowing me i'd probably push the flop (but original raiser would have AA ;) and i'd lose)
  • Wetts1012Wetts1012
    The_Awesome wrote: »
    Hard to define a range here without knowing the player. Plus someone is all in so the 'we should check it down' situation is another wild card. You just can't count on people doing this by the book especially online. But man does it f&*k with your judgement making you weigh the better hands higher.

    Hands you beat:

    AK (16) AQ (16) maybe a lower pair

    Hands you are behind badly:

    AA (6) KK (6) QQ (6) JJ (1) AJ (8) 66 (3) maybe KJ (16) QJ (16)

    I'd adjust to:

    AK (16) AQ (16) maybe a lower pair (6)

    AA (6) KK (6) QQ (6) JJ (1) AJ (8) 66 (3) maybe KJ (16-10) QJ (16-8)

    So 38 hands you are ahead to 44 you are badly behind.

    You know Pokerstove will do this for you right?
  • The Prophet 22The Prophet 22
    Thanks for the thoughts. To be honest, I thought a hand like this would generate more discussion. I did think I had enough room to move if I had to fold on the flop. I believe if I shove pre, he is calling with his AK. Now as it turned out that would have been the right move. But, I think over all I played the and the best I could with the information I had.
  • The_AwesomeThe_Awesome
    Wetts1012 wrote: »
    You know Pokerstove will do this for you right?

    Nope. Guess I'll check it out.
  • The Prophet 22The Prophet 22
    Wetts1012 wrote: »
    You know Pokerstove will do this for you right?

    Do u have some thoughts here? Is the fact that I don't play with trackers and the like make it difficult to make key decisions?
  • Wetts1012Wetts1012
    The Prophet 22 wrote: »
    Do u have some thoughts here? Is the fact that I don't play with trackers and the like make it difficult to make key decisions?

    I call flop and re-evaluate turn.

    But I'm the opposite of the above and rarely ever fold to Cbets, especially on a board like this.
  • SteveKerrSteveKerr
    I don't fold flop here at all
  • The_AwesomeThe_Awesome
    Personally I don't like calling the flop. If and A, K or Q come on the turn you are in an even tougher spot. If villain has it in him to c-bet the turn again it's going to be for $60-70k. If you're willing to call that too if a brick comes why not just raise $60-70k on the flop and try to buy it there or find out where you are? Even if he calls you gain control back and there's a good chance villain checks it to you after the turn. Then you can reasses or see a free river.

    So for the same price as calling the flop and turn you gain the benefit of possibly pushing villain off the flop but lose the chance to see the turn before investing.

    Whenever you are given the chance to take control and put your opponent to the test for the same price do it. The two least important cards in play are yours ;)
  • The Prophet 22The Prophet 22
    SteveKerr wrote: »
    I don't fold flop here at all

    if a had thought a little longer I would have shoved too.
    The_Awesome wrote: »
    Personally I don't like calling the flop. If and A, K or Q come on the turn you are in an even tougher spot. If villain has it in him to c-bet the turn again it's going to be for $60-70k. If you're willing to call that too if a brick comes why not just raise $60-70k on the flop and try to buy it there or find out where you are? Even if he calls you gain control back and there's a good chance villain checks it to you after the turn. Then you can reasses or see a free river.

    So for the same price as calling the flop and turn you gain the benefit of possibly pushing villain off the flop but lose the chance to see the turn before investing.

    Whenever you are given the chance to take control and put your opponent to the test for the same price do it. The two least important cards in play are yours ;)

    This makes much more sense though, thank you.
  • actyperactyper
    With 20bb there it's a jam or fold situation pre.

    As played there's not too many better flops you can ask for, just get it in
  • moosemoose
    I find Awesome's logic kind of strange. If you think raising flop is better the smoothing, because you won't know what to do when villian cbets turn - well any player that is going to continue to fire on three streets with air is going to instapush to a 3bet on the flop.

    Without trackers that have a ton of history showing what villains cbet %age is then I think it is better to station the flop and give yourself another card to re-evaluate your position. Doesn't that give you more information for a lower cost than raising the flop? Prophet has the advantage of position working for him. If he flats the flop then he gets to see a card AND what villain does before he has to make another decision.
  • Wetts1012Wetts1012
    moose wrote: »
    I find Awesome's logic kind of strange. If you think raising flop is better the smoothing, because you won't know what to do when villian cbets turn - well any player that is going to continue to fire on three streets with air is going to instapush to a 3bet on the flop.

    Without trackers that have a ton of history showing what villains cbet %age is then I think it is better to station the flop and give yourself another card to re-evaluate your position. Doesn't that give you more information for a lower cost than raising the flop? Prophet has the advantage of position working for him. If he flats the flop then he gets to see a card AND what villain does before he has to make another decision.

    Basically this.

    You cant really raise the flop for information here. If youre raising the flop, we're shoving. Basically everyone can agree to that. Raise / Folding the flop is terrible. Im fine getting it in.

    I think we can also agree that raising flop folds out AK/Q/J and we want another barrel fired.

    I guess the point is that folding is probably the worst play.
  • The_AwesomeThe_Awesome
    Wetts1012 wrote: »
    Basically this.

    You cant really raise the flop for information here. If youre raising the flop, we're shoving. Basically everyone can agree to that. Raise / Folding the flop is terrible. Im fine getting it in.

    I think we can also agree that raising flop folds out AK/Q/J and we want another barrel fired.

    I guess the point is that folding is probably the worst play.

    I get what you are saying. I did say what you trade off when you raise vs. flat and just stated what my choice would be given the limited information.


    To clarify I don't raise to avoid a tough situation on the turn I raise to 1) possibly get villain to fold his AK and 2) to gain control back and use my position fully. I don't think flatting from position is using it to it's full potential. Put the spotlight and pressure back on villain. If you think you are good after that flop why give villain a shot to catch his A or K? Lay some odds in your favour and make him pay for it.

    And yes he could shove. I think a huge factor in this whole decision is the level of player you think villain is and we don't have that to consider here.

    Then again it seems several of you guys are drawing off far more experience than I am :)
  • moosemoose
    Basically never try to get hands we beat to fold if we feel they are willing to cbet with air. Raising puts more chips in when we are behind and costs us money when hands we beat fold.

    Now if you believe you are behind and raising will get better hands to fold then it is a good idea to represent a strong hand. With the context of this board, basically never would a better hand fold. After all, aren't we discussing that 88 is likely ahead on this board and shouldn't be folding? What possible better hand than 88 would fold? None.
  • The Prophet 22The Prophet 22
    I like what I have been reading. As I have said in the pass always easier to make analysis when we know both sets of cards. I really felt that by making the bet he did, he really was inviting me to stay making me to believe my pair was beat. I hadn't been at this table long and there was a lot of shoving going on. So here is the question. Is it better to call/shove when you think you are beat and risk the possible stack off? Or live to fight another day? In the end, I choose to fight another day. If I was willing to risk everything, shouldn't I have shoved pre?
  • Wetts1012Wetts1012
    The Prophet 22 wrote: »
    I like what I have been reading. As I have said in the pass always easier to make analysis when we know both sets of cards. I really felt that by making the bet he did, he really was inviting me to stay making me to believe my pair was beat. I hadn't been at this table long and there was a lot of shoving going on. So here is the question. Is it better to call/shove when you think you are beat and risk the possible stack off? Or live to fight another day? In the end, I choose to fight another day. If I was willing to risk everything, shouldn't I have shoved pre?

    You probably haven't played online much lately, villains cbet sizing is pretty standard.

    Shoving pre is an option, but I prefer calling/evaluating.
  • moosemoose
    With no reads, folding the flops isn't horrible but calling gives you the opportunity to learn what the player will do on later streets.

    Shoving on a reasonably safe board like this also works and would offer less variance than just shoving preflop, because you do have the option to fold a scary board and watch the action on the flop first. For example if the short stack had reopened the betting and villain just flats then I autoshove preflop. It got a little tricky because the betting didn't reopen. If the villain does have a big pair then the result is exactly the same whether you shove on the flop or preflop.

    However, simply being a calling station adds value against spewy opponents. This is where you are stuck because you haven't got much info on villain. I do believe tourney regs get a big advantage because they run into the same players over and over and collect data from their trackers. I always preferred playing Pokerroom for tourneys because as an occasional player tourney regs didn't have as much advantage because trackers didn't work on that site.
  • GTA PokerGTA Poker
    I don't play online, but in live poker very few players bet out trips in this spot at low limits. I would have his range as AA-QQ, TT-22 in this spot. I am never folding here after seeing that flop with the money that is in the middle given that I am slightly ahead of his range and I am obviously getting the correct odds vs his range, which is basically a flip.
  • The_AwesomeThe_Awesome
    In regards to flatting the flop vs. raise.... so basically let the spewer lay odds in your favour for you and keep the chance to re-evaluate each street? Makes sense.
  • trigstrigs
    moose wrote: »
    ...I always preferred playing Pokerroom...

    *sigh* the wonderful memories :)
  • magsmags
    I had recently read this thread when this happened yesterday.
    I have no history on the player other than watching his spewy behaviour in the short time at this table. The previous hand he had doubled up another player they are discussing it in the chat.

    PokerStars Hand #113893457836: Tournament #884081488, $2.00+$0.20 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XX (700/1400) - 2014/03/27 1:30:48 ET
    Table '884081488 65' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
    Seat 1: FERASHOWWW (79055 in chips)
    Seat 2: neredo1 (81410 in chips)
    Seat 3: vitorbica (62007 in chips)
    Seat 4: TRON1987 (85396 in chips)
    Seat 5: cantthink123 (7120 in chips) is sitting out
    Seat 6: Ima Notellin (40240 in chips)
    Seat 7: superbry (49689 in chips)
    Seat 8: stefhands (38320 in chips)
    Seat 9: Cassidy2004 (94261 in chips)
    FERASHOWWW: posts the ante 175
    neredo1: posts the ante 175
    vitorbica: posts the ante 175
    TRON1987: posts the ante 175
    cantthink123: posts the ante 175
    Ima Notellin: posts the ante 175
    superbry: posts the ante 175
    stefhands: posts the ante 175
    Cassidy2004: posts the ante 175
    stefhands: posts small blind 700
    Cassidy2004: posts big blind 1400
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to Ima Notellin [8d 8c]
    FERASHOWWW: folds
    neredo1: folds
    vitorbica: raises 5075 to 6475
    TRON1987: folds
    cantthink123: folds
    Ima Notellin: calls 6475
    superbry: folds
    stefhands: folds
    TRON1987 said, "now look at his raises lol"
    LoWrIdeR_BAR [observer] said, "lol a6 off"
    Cassidy2004: folds
    *** FLOP *** [2c 9d 9s]
    vitorbica: bets 16800
    TRON1987 said, "he musta though i had 67"
    LoWrIdeR_BAR [observer] said, "he put u on k6 i think"
    TRON1987 said, "lol exactly"
    LoWrIdeR_BAR [observer] said, "suited !"
    Ima Notellin said, "hmmmmm"
    TRON1987 said, "IMA DO IT"
    LoWrIdeR_BAR [observer] said, "i think players can see my cards"
    TRON1987 said, "lmao are u in anything"
    Ima Notellin: raises 16790 to 33590 and is all-in
    vitorbica: calls 16790
    *** TURN *** [2c 9d 9s] [Kc]
    LoWrIdeR_BAR [observer] said, "hes got an air bud"
    *** RIVER *** [2c 9d 9s Kc] [3s]
    TRON1987 said, "omg"
    *** SHOW DOWN ***
    vitorbica: shows [Ks Ts] (two pair, Kings and Nines)
    Ima Notellin: shows [8d 8c] (two pair, Nines and Eights)
    vitorbica collected 83805 from pot
    Ima Notellin finished the tournament in 164th place
    TRON1987 said, "NO"
    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot 83805 | Rake 0
    Board [2c 9d 9s Kc 3s]
    Seat 1: FERASHOWWW folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 2: neredo1 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 3: vitorbica showed [Ks Ts] and won (83805) with two pair, Kings and Nines
    Seat 4: TRON1987 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 5: cantthink123 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 6: Ima Notellin showed [8d 8c] and lost with two pair, Nines and Eights
    Seat 7: superbry (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 8: stefhands (small blind) folded before Flop
    Seat 9: Cassidy2004 (big blind) folded before Flop
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