Did I play ths wrong?
Single table sat live to a $500.00 buy-in.
first orbit, blinds are 25/50 start with 3000. I have played two hands for a 125 raise and had to fold both.
raised in mid position to 125 and I call with 4c, 7c on button. Small and big blind call. 500 in pot.
Flop is Kc 6c 7d. Original raiser continuation bets 125 again, I call and blinds fold.
turn is 4s, he bets 600 and I push my remainding 2400 in, never thinking I am behind here. I did loose the hand but my question is more
1. do I ever not go broke here
2. should I have called down only
3. realistically could I have put him on one of the two better hands KK or 66? 77 and 44 are very unlikely but possible.
Please give me your thoughts. I have never played with any of these players before.
first orbit, blinds are 25/50 start with 3000. I have played two hands for a 125 raise and had to fold both.
raised in mid position to 125 and I call with 4c, 7c on button. Small and big blind call. 500 in pot.
Flop is Kc 6c 7d. Original raiser continuation bets 125 again, I call and blinds fold.
turn is 4s, he bets 600 and I push my remainding 2400 in, never thinking I am behind here. I did loose the hand but my question is more
1. do I ever not go broke here
2. should I have called down only
3. realistically could I have put him on one of the two better hands KK or 66? 77 and 44 are very unlikely but possible.
Please give me your thoughts. I have never played with any of these players before.
Comments
hind sight is 20/20 but I probably raise the flop. I probably fold pre. it is 5% of your stack on a crap hand. I probably don't even sit at the table in the first place.
why play in such a crap shoot? you are too skilled for this.
I'm possibly calling the flop $125 bet. I am also considering a raise given the decent flop for us and the tiny sized c-bet. I probably raise.
I'm okay pushing the turn. There's $750 + $600 in the pot, the only possibility to get a decent draw off is to push while you still have some fold equity and you won't have any on the river after a 3rd bet. Either that or beleive the jump in bet size means he has a real hand and fold.
1. Sometimes
2. Possibly. The jump in bet size on the turn is concerning. There's a good chance he's betting most of if not all your chips on the river.
3. Hands you beat: AK, KQ, KJ, AA, 89, 45; hands you don't KK, 66, 77, 44, 67, 53, 58; plus you have to consider there is a better club draw. 53 and 58 are unlikely but the rest are possible. 44 would be the most likely given the light flop c-bet with the flush draw on board. Then again I've found that so many players wimp out when they flop a set no matter how dangerous the flop for draws. So a light c-bet shouldn't rule out a flopped set. So it comes down to a calculation of probabilities based on odds, actions and gut. Not knowing anyone doesn't help.
But in the end I am probably pushing the turn with you here knowing there's still a half decent chance we're beat but more often then not we're good.
For sure go broke every time.
I'm not sure raising the flop is a good move as with two behind me I could easily get raised off the pot. I have a good draw but the turn was my death card.
It was a new poker group close to me I just was introduced to and I was free.
I'm thinking what does he have on the flop. AK,AA,KK,KQ are the most obvious with the C bet, on the aggressive turn bet, the story now reads...AA,AK and KQ. I really cant put him on KK , 77 or 66 as it smells as a ok but not great hand. Ideally he played it very well as he had 66 or he was just trying to push off the flush draws and I got very unlucky.
I would have had to commit with a relatively weak hand and a draw. An ace high flush draw would have raised me and I'm in a whole world of hurt.
Flop came down and it went check, check, tiny c-bet. In many if not most cases no one here caught anything and mid pos felt obligated to c-bet. Even with a total miss I might take a stab at the pot here from the button. So I raise to $400. If he then reraises I can maybe get away from this hand (likely not), if instead he calls and we see the turn I'm going home anyway since I'll bet my 2 pair and won't be able to get away likely.
Flopped sets can be hard to detect. People often bet at them weakly or even check them on the flop because they are so afraid of being detected. Be very careful when ruling them out. Often by the turn they recover from the shock and return to standard situational betting.
All in all I think you played the turn fine. I too would have thought most times you are ahead there on the turn. There are far more combinations of hands you beat possible than those you don't (about 3:1 by my list if I did it right). Plus you still have up to 13 outs to most hands you are behind. Pre and post flop are also reasonable options from the button.
Good point.
Why did you call? Why are you playing a 2 gap suited connector with position? The stacks are not deep enough to call to hit a hand.
Calling to hit your hand is never ever right in this situation.
If you have a huge postflop skill advantage you might argue that it makes it right. But you know nothing about these people.
It's a disaster.
Why not fold 90% of the time or make it 550 more and hope to outplay them?
Why did you call, Why not make it 720 more?
So he makes a big bet and now you shove?
What worse hands call you?
What better hands fold?
Is there a juicy cash game you can play at this point?
What worse hands might call:
AK (12) AA (6) KQ (12) KJ (12) AQc (1)
What better hands fold:
None
What better hands call:
KK (3) 44(1) 66 (3) 77 (1) 89c(1)
So 43 of 53 possible hands in this range he is the fav on the turn.
We could also apply a weight on the hands due to probability of villain calling:
What worse hands might call:
AK (12) AA (6) KQ (12-4) KJ (12-8) AQc (1-1)
What better hands call:
KK (3) 44(1) 66 (3) 77 (1) 89c(1)
So now we are at 30 of 40 which is still just fine.
Now we can apply the odds directly to this if you need more proof:
What worse hands might call:
AK (12 @ 82%) AA (6 @ 82%) KQ (8 @ 82%) KJ (4 @ 82%)
What better hands call:
KK (3 @ 20%) 44(1 @ 25%) 66 (3 @ 25%) 77 (1 @ 20%) 89c(1 @ 30%)
=68-70% average
Without knowing the player or noticing a tell a shove makes sense to me.
Not sure I know for sure
I defined what I expect the range to be.
Broke it out into how many variations there are for each hand I listed.
Then I reduced those in cases where villain won't always play those cards (like KJ) by a guestimate.
That gives a reasonable comparison of how many hands you are ahead vs. total range.
Then finally I ran the odds of each hand against mine on the turn, counted each variation equally and got an average win % (I cut some corners and just used an online calculator).
To be honest I don't think I've ever tried to take it so far, just wondering if it makes sense. Guess not lol.
Adjusted: 30 of the total hands you're ahead ~82% and 10 you are behind ~23%.
Unadjusted is 43 to 10 with close to the same average odds.
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that's terrible with this structure
huge leak
I guess folding pre works too! :frown::frown::frown:
No it doesn't, because I would guess that if you 3bet 47s here that you are way too bluff heavy, in which case you are burning money too (not sure who is worse though) :P
Do you know if you villain is reggy/fishy? Flatting a lot of 3 bets, or will he just 4b or fold? These are the answers you need to know before you even know if you should be polarized or not. I'd guess in this spot you are not supposed to be polarized, and so 3 betting 47s is ridic. sorry h.
Folding pre is best imo. Getting it in after misclick calling pre.
#post2005poker
Thats what I'm asking you
Set mining has merit, but not in position
#ursoreggy
I know that you think it sounds cool to 3bet everything without considering any other factors, but if you want to one day be a winning player you need to factor in everything... including the structure and stack sizes into your play.
Maybe then you can save enough money to spend another 3 weeks in Vancouver as a pro.
#couchesagain