Jj Utg
Hi
Like to get some thoughts on a hand. MTT - 30 players left, final table pays, blinds 500-1000, average stack 12,000, hero with about 6000. 7 players at table, 4 with bigger stacks. Dealt JJ in UTG. How do you play it?
Like to get some thoughts on a hand. MTT - 30 players left, final table pays, blinds 500-1000, average stack 12,000, hero with about 6000. 7 players at table, 4 with bigger stacks. Dealt JJ in UTG. How do you play it?
Comments
Easiest push in history.
Beg for a call.
Limp-push is awful. No sane poker player raises an ultrashortstacked limper with anything less than AA-QQ. Furthermore, there is a strong chance a player or two will limp behind, then he's got to play a shortstacked multiway pot with only a pair of jacks, meaning any pushing he does on the flop is guaranteed to get called by anyone with a reasonable draw or pair.
A push will get it either heads up or steal the blinds. You'd rather get called by an idiot with AK or AQ or something like TT/99/88, and try to double up; How would you feel if you open limped, everyone knew you were "slowplaying" (even if there's no way in hell you should be slowplaying jacks, let alone aces or kings) and they all folded to the BB, who made two pair on the flop with his 82o? Or hit top pair then only had to call 5k getting 2-1 on a flop bet/call?
With the average chip stack at 12*BB, and a short stack at 6*BB who is probably pushing in with a wide variety of hands, calling with the hands you mentioned seems more reasonable than idiotic to me.
ScottyZ
Well, if you're all in you're going to be called by those hands any way.
This is the gamble part of the play. You are short stacked and need to accumulate a lot more chips to get to the final table. Winning the blinds will only help you last a little longer...doubling up or better here gets you into much more comfortable zone.
Now, I don't think pushing is bad...far from it and depending on your table texture may be the only play. Limping is obviously a much higher variance play but can reap some nice benefits. Also, you may pick-up some crazy tell from a preflop pusher that they have QQ-AA and you will be able to lay your hand down...LoL...just kidding!!!!
Seriously, though by limping you may be able to get the Ax or Kx (Jacks or lower) hands to follow you to the pot, hit top pair, and double you up on the flop. Again, I realize that this is a variance play but given the above situation I don't think it's terrible either.
There is a chapter in Sklansky's tournament book that discusses a special final-two-tables situation where it is correct to fold QQ to a short stack's raise if busting him will mean you can no longer run over the table with your big stack.
While it is true that an open-pusher in that spot has a wide variety of hands, it is probably correct to throw those hands away if you have a healthy stack. Let him steal the blinds once if it means you can steal them three times. Let everyone else pass their chips back and forth trying to knock everyone out, while you manouever your stack around and steal blinds and antes at will.
If you're short stacked, however, say, 10x BB I'd probably reraise allin to isolate as we a) need to get lucky soon, and b) need to build up chips for the final table.
I don't think there will be too many stacks out there that would be big enough to make this particular play when the average stack is 12*BB. The underlying assumption that stealing will be easier than usual will probably not apply. You have lots of short stacks at your table who will be pretty desparate and not playing "sneak up the ladder" tightly, since the money spots are still far away.
That's not really a blind stealin' playground.
Also, I never said I like calling more with a huge stack. I'd be less inclined to call here the more chips I had.
Basically, a big stack can still be concerned with avoiding a close high variance decisions since the number of future tournament opportnities to use those chips is large. For a short stack, the fundamental reason for avoiding close/high variance decisions has faded away.
Playing too loosely on a large stack is a very common tournament error I think, and one deeply rooted in poker pseudo-strategy folklore. I secretly smile inside when players on big stacks make poor calls and then justify it be saying that they could "afford to call" having such a big stack. And then quickly agree, right along with the other 3 or 4 players who are doing so. :cool:
Yep. Same thing if I was average stacked. :cool:
ScottyZ
This is the point I'm trying to make here. Pushing isn't the only right play...but maybe I'm wrong.
What's the point of having a few extra hands when you have little to bet with?
I'd prefer to limp in and try and take the whole table's big blinds.
You are, ultimately, going to have to get into a confrontation for all of your chips. Since your stack is so small, there is no player on this earth who is going to lay down A-A to Q-Q in this spot. Against those hands, you are going to go broke or double through. Period.
What you do not want is the added variance of hands that have entered an unraised pot. What are you going to do on a flop of T-7-6 two suited with two limpers behind you? You are very possibly going broke on a hand that you could easily have survived.
Survival is very paramount. J-J is too vulnerable. Lower your variance and move all in.
No. Pushing IS the only play here. JJ is by no means a monster, but it is likely to be the best hand you'll see before the blinds eat you.
Trust me, I know what it's like to bust out of tournaments with JJ. Big tournaments. The biggest tournaments. Ever.
For further clarification, from Sklansky's 'Tournament Poker for Advanced Players':
"EV is an abbreviated term for the words 'expected value'. Every bet has an expected value, either positive, negative, or zero. Basically, expected value means the amount you will win or lose per bet if you could somehow make it a large number of times.
For instance, if someone stupidly offered you $300-to-$200 on a flip of a coin, you have an expected value of positive $50. Why? Because after many such bets you would be ahead on average $50 per bet. Had you made 10 bets, you would average winning five and losing five, putting you up $500, or $50 per bet.
$500 = (5)($300) - (5)($200)
$50 = ($500/10)"
(he goes on with other examples, but I think this next part I'll mention is perhaps most applicable to this thread...)
"It turns out that in a tournament it is not always right to choose the play with the slightly higher EV. This is because the higher EV bet may be more likely to lose. The $50 EV coin flip bet involved something that would lose only half the time. Assuming that you have enough money to withstand short-term fluctuations, it is always better to choose the bet with the higher EV. But if you do not have that cushion, it may well be right to choose the slightly smaller EV if that bet will win more often, especially if going broke keeps you from making more positive EV bets.
Notice, that may well be your situation in a poker tournament. Balancing your quest for EV and your quest for survival is a major factor in proper tournament strategy."
Probably not. About the ONLY situation I might even consider it would be on the button or in the SB if there was a very very aggressive stealer in the BB (where he may raise you allin with any paint). I'd be more willing to do this heads up in the SB as if you limp on the button, you run the risk of the SB limping as well. I also probably would just happily push in either of those spots, as it will look like you're trying a desperation steal, and are apt to be called by a sub-par hand anyways.