odds to win WSOP

the_main

i thought this was interesting.... the current odds for players to win the WSOP main event

(all numbers are ODDS to 1)


Daniel Negreanu 101
Phil Hellmuth 101
Barry Greenstein 126
Chris "Jesus" Ferguson 126
Dan Harrington 126
Gus Hansen 126
Howard Lederer 126
Johnny Chan 126
Marcel Luske 126
Phil Ivey 126
Annie Duke 151
Antonio Esfandiari 151
Carlos Mortensen 151
Dave "Devilfish" Ulliot 151
Dave "El Blondie" Colclough 151
Erik Sagstrom 151
Erik Siedel 151
Freddy Deeb 151
John Juanda 151
Layne Flack 151
Men "The Master" Nguyen 151
Minh Nguyen 151
Phil "Unabomber" Laak 151
Ram Vaswani 151
Sam Farha 151
Scott Fischman 151
Scotty Nguyen 151
Ted Forrest 151
"Miami" John Cernuto 201
Chip Reese 201
David Pham 201
David Williams 201
Dewey Tomko 201
Doyle Brunson 201
Erick Lindgren 201
Greg Raymer 201
Hasan Habib 201
Huck Seed 201
Humberto Brenes 201
Jennifer Harmon 201
John Hennigan 201
Martin De Knijff 201
Mike Matusow 201
Robert Varkonyi 201
TJ Cloutier 201
Amarillo "Slim" Preston 251
Amir Vahedi 251
An Tran 251
Andy Bloch 251
Barry Shulman 251
Christer Johansson 251
Dutch Boyd 251
Evelyn Ng 251
Joe Awada 251
Joe Beevers 251
Josh Arieh 251
Paul Phillips 251
Phil Gordon 251
Surinder Sunar 251
Allen Cunningham 301
Barny Boatman 301
Chris Moneymaker 301
David Nguyen 301
Elix "Jack High" Powers 301
Gary Jones 301
Harry Demetriou 301
Julian Gardner 301
Julian Thew 301
Mike Caro 301
Paul "Actionjack" Jackson 301
Paul "Eskimo" Clarke 301
Paul Darden 301
Ross Boatman 301
Roy Brindley 301
Sam Grizzle 301
Simon Trumper 301
Thomas "Thunder" Keller 301
Ben Affleck 401
John Kabbaj 401
Liam Flood 401
Casey Koch 501
Mike Candela 501

Chugs

i think i would happily lay those odds to anyone, against the pros ... in a field of 5000 to lay as LITTLE as 100 to 1 is way to much.


now if those are for simply making the final table (last 9 or 10) then maybe.

ConfusedONE

player from 'PokerStars' 75-1

*wonders* if they can make it 3 in row

Chugs

ConfusedONE wrote:

player from 'PokerStars' 75-1

*wonders* if they can make it 3 in row

you know what i would take that bet in a heart beat. So confusedONE if you want i'll lay $100 at 75-1 that a player who qualifies from pokerstars wins the WSOP this year.

just have the $7500 ready for me

stpboy

Jeff Campbell 101-1

ConfusedONE

Chugs wrote:

you know what i would take that bet in a heart beat. So confusedONE if you want i'll lay $100 at 75-1 that a player who qualifies from pokerstars wins the WSOP this year.

just have the $7500 ready for me

sure thing
now i just need to find an insurer to cover the $7500

ol-stone-face

I remember last year in an interview they they asked a pro (can't remember if it was Negreanu) who they thought the favorite to win the 2004 main event was.

The answer: Someone you've never heard of

Still applies.

88Fingers

It was Dan N. who said that last year.

I am glad most people have never heard of me, that way when i play in the 'big one' (sometime before 2080), Im a shoe in to win!

mragmoore

2080

lol

ConfusedONE

88Fingers wrote:

It was Dan N. who said that last year.

I am glad most people have never heard of me, that way when i play in the 'big one' (sometime before 2080), Im a shoe in to win!

2079

Yorkpoker

Unfortunately, I have been heard of by at least 5 people, so I am out. I suppose my odds go down or something like that.

We could do a prop bet system like the superbowl. Over under for the first guy to get knocked out within 5 mins, the average stack at the end of each of the days, things like that.

Anyone in?

Yorkpoker

the_main wrote:

i thought this was interesting.... the current odds for players to win the WSOP main event

(all numbers are ODDS to 1)


Daniel Negreanu 101
Phil Hellmuth 101
Barry Greenstein 126
.
.
.
.
Casey Koch 501
Mike Candela 501

Where'd you get this info from? I'd be curious to read more about it.

mragmoore

* cough * * cough * ahem... I just noticed that my name is NOT on the list !?

DJP

If these odds are even remotely close, it tells me that the average players odds must be enormous.

Dave Scharf

At this point, I think I am going to win.

The odds posted are RIDICULOUS. With the possible exception of "A Player From PokerStar." They are already running satellites. PokerStars may put 1,000 people into the WSOP. Wow.

Chris

I think these websites are ruining the wsop. I mean seriously, giving away 1, 000 seats? That's insane. Soon they better raise the buy-in to 25,000.

Dave Scharf

Why?

I think it's AWESOME. The more the merrier.

ConfusedONE

Chris wrote:

I think these websites are ruining the wsop. I mean seriously, giving away 1, 000 seats? That's insane. Soon they better raise the buy-in to 25,000.

i think 25,000 BI would mean even bigger payouts

ConfusedONE

Dave Scharf wrote:

Why?

I think it's AWESOME. The more the merrier.

i agree with Mr.Scharf

ScoobyD

I agree with Dave. More promotion for the game as "the dream" of playing vs. the best players in the world is actually accessible. If the buy-in was 1M how many "would be pros" would complain that "I could win it if I only had the buyin, I guess I'll have to grind till I'm 50 before I can play in that game" I think one of the main reasons for the poker explosion is the whole idea that "anyone can win on any given day". Of course the real test is that good players can do it consistantly.

Chugs

I read somewhere but i haven't seen it substaniated, that they are going to cap the entry count at 6600 and will be capping first prize at somewhere between 8-10 million and instead paying back out deeper into the money.


I believe stars has already qualified about 50 people in a matter of 3-4 days. Considering no super satellites ($650) have run yet either, which will likely qualify another 25 people at least on each run and likely more as you keep going, the number of 1000 is easily doable, and higher is quite possible.


Here is my big question do the sites each pre-buy a huge block of seats, and what happens if we start having pre-sold seats starting to bump against this 6600 limit.



I actually was figuring ironically the best person to win a 6600 person tourney will be some online free-roll specialist who keeps winning 6-7000 person tournies.

ConfusedONE

ScoobyD wrote:

I agree with Dave. More promotion for the game as "the dream" of playing vs. the best players in the world is actually accessible. If the buy-in was 1M how many "would be pros" would complain that "I could win it if I only had the buyin, I guess I'll have to grind till I'm 50 before I can play in that game" I think one of the main reasons for the poker explosion is the whole idea that "anyone can win on any given day". Of course the real test is that good players can do it consistantly.

i wonder how many pros can afford the $1M buy in
or 'willing to'

1 table or 2 tables?

6 seated or full count?

ConfusedONE

Chugs wrote:

I read somewhere but i haven't seen it substaniated, that they are going to cap the entry count at 6600 and will be capping first prize at somewhere between 8-10 million and instead paying back out deeper into the money.


I believe stars has already qualified about 50 people in a matter of 3-4 days. Considering no super satellites ($650) have run yet either, which will likely qualify another 25 people at least on each run and likely more as you keep going, the number of 1000 is easily doable, and higher is quite possible.


Here is my big question do the sites each pre-buy a huge block of seats, and what happens if we start having pre-sold seats starting to bump against this 6600 limit.



I actually was figuring ironically the best person to win a 6600 person tourney will be some online free-roll specialist who keeps winning 6-7000 person tournies.

maybe they'll hit over 1000
1350?

online specialist sounds good