Icm

sn1perb0ysn1perb0y
in Online Poker
I know quite a bit about ICM, Here is the hand..
I know if i win the hand i'm getting first, if i loose i'm 3rd. Is this a wrong play and why? I was thinking of folding to the 4 bet but decided i wanted first...(I tanked for A LOT)
payouts:
1st: 1,313
2nd: 976
3rd:688

PokerStars Hand #108354687695: Tournament #828977874, $2.00+$0.20 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XLVI (25000/50000) - 2013/12/11 5:06:39 ET
Table '828977874 152' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: HiSoLoSo (6681542 in chips)
Seat 4: JonnyI87 (483648 in chips)
Seat 8: sn1perb0y (5359810 in chips)
HiSoLoSo: posts the ante 6250
JonnyI87: posts the ante 6250
sn1perb0y: posts the ante 6250
JonnyI87: posts small blind 25000
sn1perb0y: posts big blind 50000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to sn1perb0y [Kd As]
HiSoLoSo: raises 50000 to 100000
JonnyI87: folds
sn1perb0y: raises 150000 to 250000
HiSoLoSo: raises 300000 to 550000
sn1perb0y: raises 600000 to 1150000
HiSoLoSo: raises 750000 to 1900000
sn1perb0y: raises 1500000 to 3400000
HiSoLoSo: raises 3275292 to 6675292 and is all-in
sn1perb0y: calls 1953560 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (1321732) returned to HiSoLoSo
*** FLOP *** [3d Jh Tc]
*** TURN *** [3d Jh Tc] [3c]
*** RIVER *** [3d Jh Tc 3c] [6s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
sn1perb0y: shows [Kd As] (a pair of Threes)
HiSoLoSo: shows [Qh Qd] (two pair, Queens and Threes)
HiSoLoSo collected 10750870 from pot
sn1perb0y finished the tournament in 3rd place and received $688.87.
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 10750870 | Rake 0
Board [3d Jh Tc 3c 6s]
Seat 1: HiSoLoSo (button) showed [Qh Qd] and won (10750870) with two pair, Queens and Threes
Seat 4: JonnyI87 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: sn1perb0y (big blind) showed [Kd As] and lost with a pair of Threes

Comments

  • sn1perb0ysn1perb0y
    Today, after waking up and thinking about the hand and in my sleep, I think this was a very very bad play. Should of flatted his original raise or even his 4 bet and played poker. Probably let go on the turn. This will sting for a while :(
  • moosemoose
    3 left. Folding AK on that board on the turn would be a bigger leak. Your M<10

    #shovehisminraisealldaylong

    #thisiswhyyoumakefinaltabledealsiflosingflipshurtstoomuch
  • sn1perb0ysn1perb0y
    moose wrote: »
    3 left. Folding AK on that board on the turn would be a bigger leak. Your M<10

    #shovehisminraisealldaylong

    #thisiswhyyoumakefinaltabledealsiflosingflipshurtstoomuch

    I don't think he was willing to make a deal since he was a huge chip leader before me catching up a bit and also there was the 9bbs short stack guy :(

    Also probably fold river but not turn... depending on action

    So you agree on the All-in pre here?
  • djgolfcandjgolfcan
    sn1perb0y wrote: »
    I don't think he was willing to make a deal since he was a huge chip leader before me catching up a bit and also there was the 9bbs short stack guy :(

    Also probably fold river but not turn... depending on action

    So you agree on the All-in pre here?

    I'm all in, all day long with AK 3 handed. You are ahead of most of his range and flipping against the rest.
  • sn1perb0ysn1perb0y
    djgolfcan wrote: »
    I'm all in, all day long with AK 3 handed. You are ahead of most of his range and flipping against the rest.

    But why risk it against a flip? I mean im guarnteed 2nd place and potential first place. having 50% 688 and 50% 1313, or 100% 976 and 50% 1313..I'm going with the second choice.

    I don't think he is calling off 100bbs with less than jjs and AQ which if u put on pokerstove its 50/50
  • HobbesHobbes
    sn1perb0y wrote: »
    I mean im guarnteed 2nd place

    Um No.
  • moosemoose
    Whoa sorry I totally misread the stack sizes. I see what you mean. Your m is 100 not 10.

    I probably raise to 500k first which is not stack committing and play it cautiously after that.
  • sn1perb0ysn1perb0y
    Hobbes wrote: »
    Um No.

    Pure ICM is probably KK+.


    So would you go with AK here or not?

    Also a 9bb guy vs 2 100bbs+ is most likely going to be out in 3rd if we are gonna wait for him to bust..
  • HobbesHobbes
    Like moose I also misread the stack sizes.

    No need to go nuts vs big stack when you can pick on the short stack.
  • sn1perb0ysn1perb0y
    moose wrote: »
    Whoa sorry I totally misread the stack sizes. I see what you mean. Your m is 100 not 10.

    I probably raise to 500k first which is not stack committing and play it cautiously after that.



    haha, finally i proved that i did the worst thing with AK :P
  • HobbesHobbes
    sn1perb0y wrote: »
    haha, finally i proved that i did the worst thing with AK :P

    You will play it worse if you play long enough. :D
    Hobbes wrote: »
    Psychologists often refer to the 7 stages of grief that accompany any significant loss in an individual's life.
    We certainly think AK qualifies, and know the stages all too well:

    1) Denial: "There's no way I could've missed the flop. They were suited. I can call here, I probably still have the best hand. Shoot, I should raise to narrow the field"

    2) Anger: "I raised preflop. The board is 239. What the frig are they calling on? Oh, now they're re-raising me? Well, we'll frigging see about that. Fine, your 23o hit? Congrat-u-frigging-lations. Cap!"

    3) Guilt: "Man, I missed the turn and they're still betting into me. I am such a terrible player. I should really let go of this hand. Let go if it, dumb@ss. Let go. See, this is why you never make money at poker because you can't lay a hand down you stupid idiot JUST FOLD."

    4) Depression: "Call"

    5) Forgiveness: "It's ok, you have to look that guy up every once in a while with A high. He might've been on AQ or AJ, and you would've had the best hand then. It's good for your table image anyhow. People won't mess with you now.

    6) Acceptance: "Ok, next time I'll just limp and see a flop."

    7) Recovery: "Hey, AKs, alright - RAISE!"
  • pkrfce9pkrfce9
    fold to the 5 bet
  • Wetts1012Wetts1012
    pkrfce9 wrote: »
    fold to the 5 bet

    If your going to fold you should prob just flat.
  • pkrfce9pkrfce9
    I think you have to 3 bet though

    I guess I flat or fold to the 4 bet. Not sure which is better

    tapatalk puts this here to annoy YOU
  • djgolfcandjgolfcan
    sn1perb0y wrote: »
    But why risk it against a flip? I mean im guarnteed 2nd place and potential first place. having 50% 688 and 50% 1313, or 100% 976 and 50% 1313..I'm going with the second choice.

    I don't think he is calling off 100bbs with less than jjs and AQ which if u put on pokerstove its 50/50
    moose wrote: »
    Whoa sorry I totally misread the stack sizes. I see what you mean. Your m is 100 not 10.

    I probably raise to 500k first which is not stack committing and play it cautiously after that.
    sn1perb0y wrote: »
    So would you go with AK here or not?

    Also a 9bb guy vs 2 100bbs+ is most likely going to be out in 3rd if we are gonna wait for him to bust..

    Oops, thought you had 10BBs too. No, I don't ship it with 100 BBs with AKs with a 10B stack still to bust, too much money on the line.

    I call the 3-bet and see a flop and re-evaluate.
  • Wetts1012Wetts1012
    pkrfce9 wrote: »
    I think you have to 3 bet though

    tapatalk puts this here to annoy YOU

    This is a clear situation where rape equity applies. I am 4 betting almost my entire range against a villain who is this deep with a cripple still in.
  • djgolfcandjgolfcan
    Wetts1012 wrote: »
    This is a clear situation where rape equity applies. I am 4 betting almost my entire range against a villain who is this deep with a cripple still in.

    And after he 5 bet shoves ?
  • Wetts1012Wetts1012
    djgolfcan wrote: »
    And after he 5 bet shoves ?

    There were like 9 bets in this hand, but thats my point. we can't assume that villains 4 bet range is only super nuts. But youre deep enough where it doesnt have to get to that point.
  • pkrfce9pkrfce9
    I know wetts. I have played against you...

    tapatalk puts this here to annoy YOU
  • pkrfce9pkrfce9
    It's a beautiful game

    tapatalk puts this here to annoy YOU
  • pkrfce9pkrfce9
    Wetts1012 wrote: »
    This is a clear situation where rape equity applies. I am 4 betting almost my entire range against a villain who is this deep with a cripple still in.

    So my question is what point does it go to? Where you you flat or fold or push here?

    tapatalk puts this here to annoy YOU
  • Wetts1012Wetts1012
    pkrfce9 wrote: »
    So my question is what point does it go to? Where you you flat or fold or push here?

    tapatalk puts this here to annoy YOU

    I flat the 550k, on analysis.

    In game I rip it in.
  • sn1perb0ysn1perb0y
    djgolfcan wrote: »
    Oops, thought you had 10BBs too. No, I don't ship it with 100 BBs with AKs with a 10B stack still to bust, too much money on the line.

    I call the 3-bet and see a flop and re-evaluate.
    djgolfcan wrote: »
    And after he 5 bet shoves ?

    I did the 3-bet and the 5-bet, so call the 4-bet and call flop and call turn fold river.. Assuming i didn't hit on a similar board as the "hand's board" idk if thats a word :P
    Wetts1012 wrote: »
    I flat the 550k, on analysis.

    In game I rip it in.

    I'm not doing that with 100bbs again lesson learnt:bs:
  • Wetts1012Wetts1012
    djgolfcan wrote: »
    Oops, thought you had 10BBs too. No, I don't ship it with 100 BBs with AKs with a 10B stack still to bust, too much money on the line.

    By the way, this is the reason that the theory of rape equity works so well.
  • UnknownUnknown
    We can often look at icm from an intuitive perspective, here you have 2 100bbs stacks and 1 10bbs…you should virtually never ever bust before the shorty. Especially if we have skill edge on the other players, we should be able to manipulate play so we never stack off without 100% equity.

    Maybe better players could argue against that, but I just think I would resist big pots at all cost here.

    I don’t play this deep often but I’d just flat. If we 3bet/call a 4bet we are still often faced with the issue of hitting a kxx or axx flop and having to get it in (with fold equity) vs getting it in pre (with fold equity) .

    If we flat we can see all streets often without having to stack off.

    I think if we are going to exploit a stack setup we have room to do it without having to risk our stack by going all in. I might use our bluff hands to raise more and our value hands to check call smaller pots in this setting.

    With reads villain is cally and passive I don’t’ mind bigger pots so much.
  • sn1perb0ysn1perb0y
    He is actually a solid thinking player, he 4 bet my junks when i 3 bet 2/2 times and i folded when we were 4 handed when i was 2/4 with 2 short stacks and i had a medium stack and he had a huge stack.

    But i agree i made a big mistake with that hand
  • pkrfce9pkrfce9
    So in this spot, don't get all in pf even with aa, don't get all in on any other street without the immortal stone cold nuts. Ez game. I guess you can still raise him occasionally but if it's a big game of chicken you can just avoid him for a few more hands until he can't rape you any more and you can sit comfortably once more.

    tapatalk puts this here to annoy YOU
  • BlondeFishBlondeFish
    OMFG, I had given up on strategy discussions here, so I never clicked on this thread until today when all my WPT satellite games at OPT and Fallsview went kaput after being buried under 20 cm of snow and authorities warning to stay off the QEW. :'(
    BbdWkHfCQAAhyFG.jpg:small
    Wetts1012 wrote: »
    By the way, this is the reason that the theory of rape equity works so well.
    I have never heard or read about "rape equity" and it doesn't even show up on Google. Is it something that pkrfce9 does on Saturday nights? ;)

    Tapatalk put the above to annoy pkrfce9
    pkrfce9 wrote: »
    So in this spot, don't get all in pf even with aa, don't get all in on any other street without the immortal stone cold nuts. Ez game.
    Where is the "Dislike" button to counter all the Likes? The Nash equilibrium or unexploitable jamming range includes not just AA but a lot more hands. HiSoLoSo's Nash jamming range is 22.6% of hands and I would easily call with JJ, QQ, KK & AA in the BB. sn1perb0y's Nash jamming range is 6.8% (QQ+ AJs+ A5s AJo+ KJs+ KQo) and if I was the #1 stack, I would call with the same range plus AKs.
    yasper wrote: »
    We can often look at icm from an intuitive perspective, here you have 2 100bbs stacks and 1 10bbs…you should virtually never ever bust before the shorty. Especially if we have skill edge on the other players, we should be able to manipulate play so we never stack off without 100% equity.
    I strongly disagree. Poker is a very counter-intuitive game and that is what creates the huge opportunity to profit against others who only play by their intuition or "feel." I will usually stack off with less than 50% equity, never mind 100%.

    To try to see this intuitively, let's say that pkrfce9 has AA in the BB and says he will have to fold to HiSoLoSo's all-in. Even though AA has "only" ~85% equity instead of 100% against HiSoLoSo's range, I will have to knock out pkrfce9 with Wetts1012's "rape equity" thingamajig ;) so that I can click the "CALL" button instead of FOLD. Even though the third player is a micro stack, it is +$EV to make the call with JJ+ (unless you're Russ Hamilton and can see everybody's hole cards).
  • MiloMilo
    Been reading an introductory text on Game theory, in which poker comes up. It talks about how pure GTO play does not work in all situations and gives the example of Player A being dealt 88 and having to fold if there is a fourth raise. Is this what you are getting at?
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